Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025
Valid 161700Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA...
Today`s fire weather outlook remains largely on-track with only
minor modifications needed based on the latest high-resolution
ensemble guidance. The primary changes with this outlook update were
to expand the Elevated fire weather area farther south into portions
of South Carolina/Georgia and northeastward into portions of
Maryland/Delaware/New Jersey. Locally critical fire weather
conditions appear probable across much of the Elevated fire weather
area as near-critical dry/breezy northwesterly post-frontal surface
winds overlap critically receptive fuels owing to ongoing drought
conditions (with annual/seasonal ERC percentiles near records).
Please see the previous discussion below for more information on
today`s fire weather forecast including the potential for locally
Elevated fire weather conditions across the Midwest.
..Elliott.. 11/16/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025/
...Synopsis...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon for
portions of central Virginia with more widespread elevated fire
weather conditions likely for much of the Mid-Atlantic region as
northwesterly winds increase within a post-frontal regime.
Elsewhere, dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Midwest
as an unseasonably dry air mass moves into the region.
...Mid-Atlantic...
07 UTC surface observations show a cold front pushing east across
the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. Although light
rain may occur prior to sunrise, most locations are not expected to
receive appreciable rainfall, which will maintain very dry fuel
conditions. Northwesterly winds are expected to increase behind the
frontal passage through mid-afternoon with most guidance suggesting
winds will peak between 15-20 mph across much of the region. Dry air
advecting into the region will promote RH reductions into the 20-35%
range from the Carolinas into the Chesapeake Bay area. A 700-500 mb
speed max is forecast to traverse the northern Blue Ridge Mountains
into central VA around peak heating. This will not only regionally
augment winds (which may gust upwards of 35-40 mph), but will
enhance downslope drying and promote a corridor of critical fire
weather conditions.
...Midwest...
Early-morning surface observations show dry air pushing
southeastward from the upper MS Valley into the Midwest region.
Dewpoints in the teens to low 20s are expected to spread into
eastern IL and IN through peak heating, which will promote RH
reductions into the 20-30% range, and possibly as low as 15% for
some locations. Building surface high pressure will largely limit
wind speeds and negate a more substantial fire weather threat.
However, light fire activity has been noted in recent days owing to
ongoing drought conditions, so localized fire concerns appear
possible where winds can increase to around 10-15 mph.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
$$
049
FNUS22 KWNS 160747
FWDDY2
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions will likely return to parts of the
southern High Plains Monday afternoon with lingering fire weather
concerns possible for parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
...Southern High Plains...
The upper trough currently over southern CA is forecast to
de-amplify as it progresses northeastward into the central Rockies
by Monday evening. Lee troughing will become more pronounced through
Monday afternoon ahead of the approaching wave, resulting in
strengthening winds across much of the Plains. Dry conditions to the
west of the surface trough will likely be exacerbated by increasing
westerly downslope flow, resulting in fairly widespread RH
reductions into the teens to low 20s. Latest ensemble consensus
suggests that 15-20 mph winds are likely across eastern NM into the
TX Panhandle where ERCs range from the 80-90th percentiles.
Consequently, areas of elevated fire weather conditions appear
probable for at least a few hours Monday afternoon. Similar wind/RH
conditions may emerge across portions of southern CO in the
immediate lee of the Rockies; however, confidence in this potential
is more limited due to spread in wind magnitudes in recent high-res
guidance.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Northwesterly offshore flow is expected to persist through Monday
afternoon across much of the Mid-Atlantic region, though the
departure of the primary surface low to the northeast and building
high pressure will favor weaker winds compared to today/Sunday.
Regardless, dry conditions will persist with another day of 20-35%
RH minimums expected. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may
develop where winds can reach into the low/mid teens.
..Moore.. 11/16/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
$$
072
FNUS28 KWNS 152123
FWDD38
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
Valid 171200Z - 231200Z
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to shift quickly eastward from
the Central Plains Day 3/Monday, across the Midwest Day 4/Tuesday,
and then offshore over the Atlantic by early Day 5/Wednesday.
Meanwhile, a deeper mid/upper-level trough is forecast to come
onshore across the West Day 3/Monday before gradually progressing
eastward across the Southwest through much of the forecast period.
Meanwhile, associated lee surface cyclogenesis is expected Day
3/Monday and again midweek (Day 5/Wednesday or Day 6/Thursday)
across the Central Plains. Heavier rainfall is also possible across
the Southern Plains with the midweek trough, which may help reduce
fuel receptiveness.
...Day 3/Monday: Southern Plains...
Dry/breezy conditions are probable Day 3/Monday across portions of
the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma with the aforementioned
deepening surface low across the Central Plains. Near-critical fire
weather conditions are expected during the afternoon as breezy
west/southwesterly surface winds overlap near-critical RH values and
receptive fuels. At this time, the coverage of sustained surface
wind speeds exceeding 20 mph amidst critical RH values is too
brief/spotty to increase Critical probabilities above 40%.
...Day 3/Monday: Mid-Atlantic...
Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across portions of the
southern/central Mid-Atlantic Day 3/Monday. While minimum RH values
may be a bit lower than the previous day (Sunday), the current
forecast sustained surface wind speeds are below critical thresholds
- owing to the surface pressure gradient relaxing - which precludes
introducing Critical probabilities at this time.
..Elliott.. 11/15/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
