Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025
Valid 171700Z - 181200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Eastern NM and Western Texas...
Increasing southwesterly flow aloft over the Southwest ahead of a
positively tilted upper-level trough will continue to progress into
the Plains today. Efficient daytime mixing of a dry, post frontal
air mass and increasing westerly downslope flow across eastern NM
will support daytime relative humidity as low 15% across portions of
eastern NM and western TX this afternoon. Although sustained
west/southwest winds of 15 mph are expected, lack of receptive fuels
should mitigate the fire weather threat today.
..Williams.. 10/17/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. A
large scale trough will gradually shift into the Plains through
D2/Saturday with post-frontal west and northwesterly breezes
expected in the central/high Plains. Cooler temperatures and higher
relative humidity should mitigate fire weather concerns in this
region.
High pressure will build back in across the western US with increase
in onshore flow and breezy/dry conditions in wind prone areas near
the high terrain in southern California. Recent rainfall in this
region should help mitigate the fire weather risk.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
$$
574
FNUS22 KWNS 171937
FWDDY2
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...Western Texas and Texas Panhandle...
A robust mid-level short wave and associated vorticity maxima will
eject into the Southern Plains through Day 2/Saturday period. The
favorable upper-level and shear environment along a frontal boundary
should support elevated shower and thunderstorm development across
portions of northwest TX early Saturday, quickly moving east into
northern TX and OK through the day. Showers and thunderstorms should
traverse over a residual dry, post-frontal boundary layer across the
TX Panhandle. The elevated northeastward storm motions of up to 45
mph and dry sub-cloud layer will limit surface rainfall primarily
across the Texas Panhandle and Cap Rock areas, with wetting rainfall
potential increasing farther east. Very dry conditions resurface
across much of western TX as the surface front advances eastward
through the day and daytime boundary layer mixing results in
west/northwest winds of 15-25 mph amid relative humidity values
below 15%. Pockets of receptive fuels where morning rainfall is
minimized combined with dry/breezy conditions are now most likely to
be across portions of the TX Panhandle and Cap Rock areas Saturday
afternoon, where an elevated fire weather risk largely remains.
..Williams.. 10/17/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025/
...Synopsis...
A surface low will deepen across the central/southern Plains on
D2/Saturday as a front shifts south across the southern Plains. The
dryline will be located across the Texas Panhandle into western
Oklahoma. Behind the dryline, relative humidity reductions to 15-20
percent will overlap with warm and breezy conditions ahead of the
southward moving cold front. Overall, ensemble guidance keeps
spatial extent of any Critical conditions very limited. As such, an
Elevated area was maintained with this outlook though some localized
Critical conditions will be possible.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
$$
012
FNUS28 KWNS 162035
FWDD38
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025
Valid 181200Z - 241200Z
Limited fire weather concerns are expected across the country
through this weekend and into next week. Recent U.S. Drought Monitor
analyses show worsening drought conditions across parts of the
southern Plains, lower and mid-MS River Valley, and the Southeast
where 7-day rainfall totals have been minimal. Despite the dry
conditions, the passage of a cold front over the weekend will be
accompanied by widespread thunderstorm/rain chances that should
negate any increase in winds and minimize broader fire weather
concerns. West of the Rockies, dry conditions are expected through
the middle of next week, but a combination of modest gradient winds
and unreceptive fuels should limit fire weather potential. The only
area of potential concern will likely be the central to southern
High Plains where rainfall chances will be limited through next week
and drying of fine fuels may be adequate for fire weather concerns.
...D3/Saturday and D5/Monday - Central/Southern High Plains...
Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions may emerge
across northwest TX into southwest OK on D3/Saturday as a surface
low deepens across the central southern Plains. While most guidance
hints at dry/windy conditions behind a sharpening dry line and ahead
of a southward-advancing cold front, considerable spread is noted
among deterministic solutions regarding the placement and intensity
of the surface low and the associated winds within the post-dryline
regime. Even ensemble solutions show low probabilities for
widespread critical conditions due to this uncertainty, but some
locations will likely see a few hours of elevated/critical fire
weather conditions prior to the cold frontal passage.
Fire weather concerns may re-emerge across portions of western TX
into the OK/TX Panhandles on D5/Monday as a dry return flow regime
becomes established across the region. An approaching upper wave
over the northern Rockies will promote cyclone development over the
northern/central Plains. As a result, southerly winds should
increase to 15-25 mph by late afternoon, but will yield minimal
moisture return owing to the preceding frontal passage this weekend.
As with D3/Sat, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show
considerable spread regarding the intensity of the surface low/lee
trough and coverage of 20+ mph winds, which precludes introducing
risk probabilities at this time. However, risk areas may be needed
as confidence increases in where fire weather concerns will likely
occur.
..Moore.. 10/16/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
