220
AXNT20 KNHC 030437
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Jan 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0425 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Meteo-France Gale Warning East of 35W: The tight pressure
gradient between a complex low pressure system north of Madeira
and a strong high pressure over Libya and Egypt results in strong
to gale-force winds in the Meteo-France Agadir High Seas Marine
Zone, forecast to continue through 03/18z. Very rough seas are
occurring in these waters. Refer to the Meteo-France High Seas
Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 06N19W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N19W to 04N35W and to 01N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 03N to 08N and between 25W and 35W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure dominates the Gulf of America. The pressure gradient
between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures over the
southern United States support fresh to locally strong SW winds
north of 26N and west of 87W. The seas in these waters are 4-7 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
are evident.

For the forecast, fresh SW winds and moderate to rough seas are
expected over the northern Gulf tonight as a warm front
associated with a low pressure system lifts northward. Briefly
strong SW winds will be possible on Sat. A cold front will enter
the northern Gulf Sat afternoon and progress over the northern and
central basin through Sun, supporting moderate to locally fresh N
winds in the wake of the front. High pressure will settle over
the basin early next week, leading to moderate or weaker winds and
slight seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak surface trough is noted along 78W, producing a few showers
east of the trough axis. A weak pressure gradient sustains moderate
to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-6 ft in the central
and SE Caribbean, including the Windward Passage and Gulf of
Venezuela. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds are
expected over the central and southeastern Caribbean into early
Mon as a broad subtropical ridge prevails to the north. Winds may
pulse to strong speeds in the Gulf of Venezuela through Sat
evening. Looking ahead, fresh NE winds are forecast to develop
near the Greater Antilles through the Atlantic passages early next
week and prevail through Wed night as high pressure builds to the
north. Fresh to strong NE winds will also resume off Colombia Wed
evening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for information on a
Meteo-France Gale Warning.

A stationary front extends from 31N51W to 22N62W, followed by a
frontal trough that extends to south of eastern Hispaniola.
Divergence aloft is helping to generate scattered showers north of
21N and east of the front to 46W. The rest of the SW North
Atlantic, west of 55W, is under a broad, weak subtropical ridge.
Moderate westerly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are found north of 27N
and west of the front. In the meantime, in the far NE Atlantic, a
large storm system is producing fresh to strong cyclonic winds
north of 26N and east of 30W. Rough to very rough seas are
affecting these waters. Farther south, moderate easterly winds and
seas of 4-7 ft are found in the trade waters between Africa and
the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh W winds
are expected north of 29N through Sat morning as a low pressure
system emerges off the coast of the Mid Atlantic states and moves
eastward. Residual rough seas in NW swell occurring north of 29N
between 70W and 55W will subside through Sat morning. Fresh to
strong SW winds will develop over the NW subtropical Atlantic
offshores on Sat ahead of a low pressure system moving through the
southeastern U.S. Localized winds near-gale force will be
possible offshore of northern Florida Sat night, and rough seas
are expected near and to the east of these winds. A cold front is
slated to push offshore of the southeastern U.S. Sat night into
Sun and progress eastward through early next week, supporting
fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas ahead of the front, and
fresh to locally strong N to NW winds and rough seas in the wake
of the front. Looking ahead, high pressure will build north of the
region early next week.

$$
Delgado