426
AXNT20 KNHC 100606
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Feb 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell: A 994 mb low
pressure is centered well NE of Bermuda near 38N51W. A broad area
of low pressure extends from this low southward to near 24N. Ahead
of the low, a cold front stalls near 30N40W and then continues SW to
the northern Leeward Islands. The pressure gradient between the
front and strong high pressure building across the Bahamas
offshore waters continue to support gale-force WNW winds N of 30N
between 47W and 56W. However, fresh to near gale-force W to NW
winds extends to 26N and westward to about 65W. Ahead of the
front, winds are fresh to strong from the SW and extend southward
to 25N and eastward to 32W. Sofar buoys in the region show wave
heights as high as 25 ft N of 26N ahead of the front and 12 ft
seas in long period NW swell reaching as far south as 20N. The
area of gale force winds will lift north of the area overnight as
the low pressure shifts northeastward. However, the broad area
of combined seas in excess of 12 ft will gradually subside through
Wed evening from west to east. Mariners are urged to stay up to
date with the latest forecasts.

South-Central Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building
southeastward across the western Atlantic and northern Caribbean
will tighten the pressure gradient across the basin. This will
result in increasing NE winds over the central and SW Caribbean,
forecast to reach gale-force speeds offshore Colombia at night
tonight and again Tue night. Seas will build to 11 ft in association
with these gales.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on
these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 06N10W to 02N29W. The ITCZ continues from 02N30W to
01S47W. Scattered moderate convection extends from 00N to 06N
between 08W and 33W, and from 01S to 04N between 37W and 51W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge extends across the entire Gulf, anchored by a
1027 mb high pressure centered over coastal North Carolina. This
pattern is maintaining light to gentle breezes and slight to
moderate seas, except for moderate to fresh NE winds off the
Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche and SE winds of same
speed over the E Mexico and Texas offshore waters.

For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate the Gulf
waters through late week, bringing a gentle to moderate mainly
southerly flow. Locally fresh winds are expected, mainly at night,
just west of the Yucatan Peninsula, and over the far western
waters. Slight to moderate seas will prevail. Looking ahead,
southerly winds may increase this weekend ahead of an approaching
cold front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Features section above for information on a Gale
Warning in effect for waters offshore Colombia.

High pressure over the Gulf of America is building southeastward
over the NW Caribbean, which is acting to increase NE winds over
the western and central Caribbean to fresh to strong speeds.
Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are elsewhere over the E
Caribbean. Seas basin-wide are moderate, except rough to 9-10 ft
south of Hispaniola, across the NE Caribbean Atlantic passages,
and offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic
combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will support fresh to
strong winds across most of the central Caribbean, including the
Windward Passage, and the waters between Cuba and Jamaica through
Wed. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight and again Tue night
offshore Colombia. Meanwhile, large NW to N swell will impact the
Mona Passage, Anegada Passage, and tropical N Atlantic waters into
Wed creating hazardous marine conditions.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a gale
warning and significant swell in the central Atlantic.

Hazardous marine conditions dominate much of the central
subtropical basin, as described in the Special Features section,
in association with a large and deep low pressure system moving
northeastward across the northwest Atlantic. A cold front extends
from the Azores to near 30N40W where it stalls and continues SW to
the northern Leeward Islands. High pressure of 1027 mb over
coastal North Carolina extends a ridge SE across the Bahamas and
adjacent offshore waters. To the east of the front, a 1026 mb
high pressure just NW of the Canary Islands extends a ridge to
43W. Aside the conditions described in the Special Features for
the central Atlantic, long period NW swell in the wake of the
front continue to affect the offshore zones E of the Bahamas with
rough to very rough seas to 21 ft. Ahead of the front, over the
far E subtropical Atlantic, seas are 8 to 11 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will slowly
dissipate into Wed. Gale-force winds in the far NE waters will
end by Tue morning, with winds decreasing basin-wide as high
pressure moves E into the region. Very rough seas E of 72W will
slowly subside from W to E, finally decaying below 12 ft in the NE
waters Tue night. Fresh to strong SW winds and building seas will
commence Wed N of 28N, ahead of another cold front that will
enter the region Thu.

$$
Ramos