917
ABNT20 KNHC 232317
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms have diminished this afternoon in
association with a low-pressure system located a little over 650
miles east-northeast of Bermuda.  Environmental conditions are
marginally favorable for further development, and a resurgence in
thunderstorm activity could result in the formation of a short-lived
tropical depression or tropical storm this evening.  By Tuesday, the
low is expected to encounter increasingly unfavorable environmental
conditions, ending its opportunity for development.  The system is
forecast to move northeastward around 15 to 20 mph while remaining
over the open central Atlantic.  For additional information,
including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Roberts

		
166
AXNT20 KNHC 232350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Jun 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Periods of heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms will occur over
the southern Caribbean and into Nicaragua and Costa Rica through
at least Thursday morning as very deep moisture persists over the
region, supported by a surface low and an approaching tropical
wave. Southeastern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica are forecast
to observe the highest amounts of rain tonight into Tuesday, while
northeastern Nicaragua is expected to observe its rainfall maxima
on Wednesday. Please refer to the local Weather Services in the
region for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 25.5W from 16N
southward, and moving west around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 08N to 10N between 25W and 28W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 16N southward,
and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is evident from 06N to 10N between 50W and
Trinidad and Tobago.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 67.5W from southwest
of Puerto Rico southward into central Venezuela, and moving west
at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is observed
from 11N to 14N between 66W and 70W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 78W from south of
Jamaica southward to over eastern Panama, and moving west at 15 to
20 kt. Scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring off northwestern Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N17W, then reaches
southwestward to 11N21W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from
11N21W to 09N25W, then from 09N27W to 07N54W, and from 09N57W to
10N62W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 07N to
12N east of 20W. Widely scattered convection is noted south of 10N
between 35W and 55W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough spans from the Big Bend of Florida southwestward
to 26N88W, leading to widely scattered thunderstorms across the
northern half of the basin. Moderate with locally fresh E to SE
winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are evident at the Bay of Campeche and
Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 1 to 3 ft
seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, surface ridging extending from the SW N
Atlantic waters will dominate the Gulf waters through Sat night.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse each afternoon and
evening over the next several days north of the Yucatan Peninsula
and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops
and tracks westward across the region. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds and slight to moderate seas can be expected elsewhere
through Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are generating widely scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms from the east coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula eastward to near the Windward Passage. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional
convection in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh easterly trade winds and 6
to 8 ft seas are occurring across the south-central and
southeastern basin, including the ABC Islands. Gentle to moderate
E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted at the northwestern basin
west of 84W. Light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft in NE
swell exist near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate with locally
fresh easterly trade winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in
the Caribbean Sea, including the lee of Cuba and Windward
Passage.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between SW N Atlantic
high pressure and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean will
support fresh to strong trades over the central and SW part of the
basin through the week. Locally near gale-force winds are likely
off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela Thu night. Moderate to
rough seas are expected within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail. Looking ahead, high
pressure will develop and strengthen S of Bermuda Thu evening,
resulting in the expansion of fresh to near gale-force winds to
the Gulf of Honduras Thu night through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends southwestward from a 1018 mb low
pressure (Invest AL90) located north of the forecast area near
31N57W to 21N70W. Widely scattered showers are occurring within
150 NM of this feature. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and
Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional convection
in the Atlantic Basin.

A subtropical ridge extends southwestward from a 1032 mb Azores
High across 31N40W to a 1024 mb high off northeastern Florida.
These features are sustaining gentle to locally moderate NE to SE
winds with 4 to 5 ft seas north of 24N between 35W and the
Florida coast/central Bahamas. Farther south from 20N to 24N
between 35W and the southeast Bahamas, moderate with locally fresh
ENE to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present. For the
tropical Atlantic from 06N to 20N west of 35W, moderate to fresh
with locally strong NE to E winds and seas at 7 to 10 ft exist.
Moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE to NE winds and 6 to 10
ft seas dominate waters north of 17N between the northwest coast
of Africa and 35W. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west
of 35W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in
mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough associated with Invest
90L will dissipate tonight into Tue, and the Atlantic high
pressure will then extend westward towards the Florida peninsula.
Under this weather pattern, moderate to fresh trades along with
moderate to locally rough seas are expected south of 25N over the
next few days, with gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere.
Otherwise, locally strong E winds are expected N of Hispaniola Wed
through Fri.

$$
ADAMS