Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Jan 26 2025 - 12Z Tue Jan 28 2025

...Showers and mountain snow for the southern half of California...

...Heavy rain for portions of the Deep South on Sunday...

...Snow and colder weather from the Great Lakes to northern New England...

One of the things making weather headlines through Monday night will be a
developing upper low over the southwestern U.S. that will be quite slow to
move towards the east across the Southern Rockies.  This low will become
cut off from the main jet stream that is well to the northeast, so it will
tend to loiter over this region.  The good news is that enough moisture
should interact with this system to produce badly needed rainfall across
southern California through Monday.  While most of this rainfall should be
greatly beneficial, any heavier showers than fall directly over recent
burn scar areas could lead to instances of flash flooding and mudslides,
and therefore a Marginal Risk of flooding is valid for the Transverse and
Peninsular Ranges for both Sunday and Monday before a return to drier
weather commences by Tuesday.  This same upper low is also going to
produce moderate accumulating snow for the central and southern Sierra, as
well as the highest terrain of southern California.

A more concentrated corridor of heavy rain is expected from southeastern
Texas to central Mississippi through Monday morning, with some locations
getting 1 to 2 inches with locally heavier amounts possible.  Return flow
from the Gulf combined with a wave of low pressure at the surface will
fuel the development of numerous showers and thunderstorms, and some of
this is expected over areas that had recent historic snowfall.  A Marginal
Risk of excessive rainfall is in place for this region through Sunday
night.  Elsewhere across the nation in terms of precipitation, light to
moderate snowfall is forecast from northern Minnesota and across the Great
Lakes into northern New England in association with a couple of shortwave
passages and cold fronts, with some locally heavy lake effect snow
possible.  The second storm system tracking rapidly across northern
Ontario into northern Quebec is expected to be quite strong, and will
likely be accompanied by strong winds across New England Monday afternoon
into Monday night.

Temperatures are expected to be rather chilly across much of the
Intermountain West and the western High Plains on Sunday, with highs in
the 20s and 30s for many of those areas.  Meanwhile, a warm-up is forecast
for the Northern Plains to begin the work week with highs reaching the mid
30s to mid 40s.  However, an arctic front is expected to reach down to
northern portions of Michigan and northern New England by Tuesday morning
with sharply colder temperatures behind it, although the core of the
coldest weather should stay just north of the Canadian border.

Hamrick