Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 PM EDT Fri Oct 03 2025
Valid 00Z Sat Oct 04 2025 - 00Z Mon Oct 06 2025
...Record high temperatures likely across the Northern Plains, Upper
Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes this weekend...
...Heavy rains and isolated flash flooding possible along the east coast
of Florida...
...A series of cold fronts moving across the West will bring much cooler
temperatures and drop mountain snow...
The overall synoptic pattern will generally favor below average
temperatures in the West and above average warmth in the central and
eastern U.S. into early next week. A cold front is moving through the
Inter-mountain West as of this afternoon. It will continue moving eastward
by Saturday as it approaches the Rockies and the northern Plains.
Meanwhile, a stronger continental cold front will look to plunge southward
across the Mountain West by Saturday and move southward across the West on
Sunday. Across the Plains and East Coast, mid-level ridging will remain
stout heading into early next week. Florida and the Gulf Coast will see
seasonable temperatures with showers and thunderstorms scattered across
the region.
A mid-level ridge looks to remain in place across the central part of the
country through the weekend. The well advertised warm temperatures look to
peak on Saturday for the upper Midwest. Many locations may reach near or
surpass daily record high temperatures on Saturday as the mercury
approaches the middle to upper 80s. The ridge will then build eastward
towards the Northeast for the weekend. Rising atmospheric heights and a
retreating high pressure system over New England will warm temperatures
nicely into the low and middle 80s for the weekend. This is about 10-15
degrees warmer than average for early October in the region.
Florida looks to continue a rainy weather pattern over the next few days
as a mid-level disturbance and a weak surface low pressure will persist
over the Gulf and Atlantic. High moisture at the surface and an influx of
showers and thunderstorms from gusty winds off the Atlantic Ocean will
enable good chances of seeing a couple of inches of rain over the weekend.
WPC has 2-4 inches of rainfall possible from today into Sunday afternoon
from the Treasure Coast to Jacksonville. There will be a threat for flash
flooding in any locally heavy thunderstorms. Therefore, WPC has issued a
Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for the Space and Treasure Coast on
Saturday and a Marginal Risk across the east coast of Florida on Sunday.
Winds will also remain gusty on the waters with a tight pressure gradient
in the region; winds could gust to 25 knots and bring rough seas to
mariners. Southern Louisiana will also see an increase in rain chances and
QPF through the weekend, and a Marginal Risk for Flash Flooding has been
added for Sunday to reflect this thinking.
A secondary, stronger cold front will push southward across the
Intermountain West and Rockies late Saturday and Sunday. This front will
bring chances for heavy high elevation snow, particularly across Montana
and Wyoming. Local forecast offices have issued Winter Storm Warnings for
mountain ranges in Montana and Winter Weather Advisories in Wyoming.
Temperatures will also drop significantly behind the cold front on
Saturday for the northern Rockies. High temperatures in the 40s and 50s
are likely in the valleys on Sunday and Monday, and the mountains will
likely see high temperatures in the 30s and 40s. Freeze Watches are also
in effect for the likelihood of morning temperatures below 32 degrees.
Lastly, there will be a chance for thunderstorms, some strong, across the
northern Rockies and northern Plains ahead of a cold front entering the
region tomorrow. The main hazards with the storms should be gusty winds
and some marginal hail with an anticipated multi-cell storm mode. General
thunderstorms will accompany the front across the upper Midwest for the
weekend. Gusty gradient winds and dry fuels at the surface will introduce
fire weather concerns additionally.
