Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EDT Thu Oct 03 2024

Valid 00Z Fri Oct 04 2024 - 00Z Sun Oct 06 2024

...Record-breaking heat remains across California and the Southwest
through this weekend, while also building into the central United States
on Saturday...

...Strong winds and dangerous fire weather concerns forecast throughout
the northern Great Basin, northern Rockies, and into the northern Plains...

...Locally heavy rain possible across the immediate Gulf Coast as
unsettled weather develops in the Gulf of Mexico...

An autumn heat wave continues to simmer much of the Southwest as high
temperatures reach into the triple digits. Excessive Heat Warnings and
Heat Advisories are in effect for about 35 million residents spanning from
central Arizona to the Bay Area of California, where widespread moderate
to extreme HeatRisk is forecast due to the record-breaking temperatures.
This October heat is anticipated to remain over the region into this
weekend as upper-level ridging anchors over the Southwest. Well above
average temperatures are also expected to span into the central U.S. by
Saturday, with highs into the 90s extending from the southern Plains to
the Middle Missouri Valley. Remember, heat is the deadliest weather
phenomenon in the U.S. and is still dangerous outside of summer.

A potent storm system crossing to the north of the aforementioned
upper-level ridge will produce unsettled weather and strong winds from the
Northwest to north-central U.S. over the next few days. The low pressure
system and associated cold front is forecast to enter the Pacific
Northwest and British Columbia, Canada on Friday, while spreading
light-to-moderate precipitation over the region. Meanwhile, a redeveloping
area of low pressure on the lee side of the Canadian Rockies will quickly
develop and strengthen as it races eastward across south-central Canada
through Saturday. The attached cold front will also speed over the
northern Great Basin and northern Rockies on Friday, before entering the
northern Plains early Saturday morning. The primary weather hazards
associated with this system are anticipated to be from strong winds and
dangerous fire weather conditions. High Wind Warnings and Watches as well
as Wind Advisories stretch from southeast Oregon to the Dakotas, with
maximum wind gusts up to 70 mph possible in the northern High Plains and
Rockies Friday evening. Red Flag Warnings have also been issued from much
of the Great Basin and northern Rockies as dry vegetation combine with
gusty winds and low relative humidity. Existing fires and newly developing
fires could exhibit rapid growth and erratic movement.

The remainder of the Lower 48 is forecast to enjoy tranquil weather as
high pressure and a weak cold front influence conditions throughout much
of the central and eastern United States. However, shower and thunderstorm
chances are expected to gradually increase across the Gulf Coast and
Florida Peninsula into this weekend as an area of unsettled weather
develops in the Gulf of Mexico along with copious amounts of atmospheric
moisture content. Locally heavy rain and flash flooding cannot be ruled
out along immediate coastal regions surrounding the Gulf of Mexico,
including parts of southern Florida through Saturday.

Snell