Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
253 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025
Valid 00Z Tue Jun 24 2025 - 00Z Thu Jun 26 2025
...There are Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories across much of the
eastern third of the country...
...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern Rockies on Tuesday...
...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley/Central Plains and Southern
Rockies/Southern High Plains on Monday and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley
and Northern/Central Plains on Tuesday...
...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper
Great Lakes, Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, and Central Plains on Monday
and Northern/Central High Plains on Tuesday...
An upper-level high over the Ohio Valley will be quasi-stationary through
Wednesday and contribute to Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories
across much of the eastern third of the country, affecting nearly 160
million people. Light winds, sunny days, record-high daytime, and high
overnight temperatures will create a lack of overnight cooling,
significantly increasing the danger. This heat level can be dangerous to
anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration, especially
those engaging in lengthy outdoor activities. Heat-related illnesses
increase significantly during extreme heat. Wear lightweight and
loose-fitting clothing. Take action when you see symptoms of heat
exhaustion and heat stroke.
In addition, a front extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Middle
Mississippi Valley and Central Plains will move eastward off the Northeast
Coast by Wednesday while continuing across the Mid-Atlantic to the Central
Plains/Central Rockies by Wednesday evening. Moisture pooling along the
boundary will produce showers and severe thunderstorms from the Upper
Great Lakes, Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, and Central Plains.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Great Lakes, Upper/Middle
Mississippi Valley, and Central Plains through Tuesday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.
Moreover, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop along and
ahead of the front over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi
Valley/Central Plains. Therefore, through Tuesday morning, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley/Central Plains. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.
Furthermore, moisture will stream northwestward over Texas and interact
with upper-level energy to produce showers and thunderstorms, creating
heavy rain over parts of southwestern Texas and southeastern New Mexico.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of southwestern Texas and southeastern New Mexico
through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.
On Tuesday, moisture will continue to flow northward over the Plains,
producing showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern/Central High Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central
High Plains from Tuesday through Wednesday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. However, there will be
an increased threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or
greater over the area.
Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain
covering parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Northern/Central
Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and
Northern/Central Plains from Tuesday through Wednesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.
A second area of heavy rain will develop over parts of the Southern
Rockies and Southern High Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate
Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Rockies
and Southern High Plains from Tuesday through Wednesday morning. Numerous
flash flooding events are possible. In addition, many streams may flood,
potentially affecting larger rivers.
Moisture and daytime heating will also produce showers and thunderstorms
on Tuesday over most of the eastern third of the country.
On Wednesday, moisture will continue to stream over the Southern
Rockies/Southern High Plains into the Central Plains and the Upper/Middle
Mississippi Valley, creating heavy rain over parts of the Northern/Central
Plains and Upper /Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued
a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Northern/Central Plains and Upper /Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday.
The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.
Furthermore, moisture and energy will produce showers, thunderstorms, and
heavy rain over the Southern Rockies. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Rockies on Wednesday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.
Likewise, moisture and daytime heating will also produce showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday over most of the eastern third of the country.
Ziegenfelder
