Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Valid 00Z Sun Sep 14 2025 - 00Z Tue Sep 16 2025
...Rounds of thunderstorms continue over the Southern Rockies, High
Plains, and Midwest; scattered flash flooding and severe weather
possible...
...Unsettled weather in the Southeast with periods of rain, gusty winds,
and choppy seas along the Southeast coast; Pacific Northwest to cool off
in wake of a passing cold front...
...Mid-September heat wave unfolding in parts of the Mississippi Valley;
warmer than normal weather from the south-central U.S. to the Northeast...
Through the remainder of the weekend and to kick-off the upcoming
work-week, the Great Plains will be the most active region with rounds of
showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. The southern
Great Plains and Southern Rockies are most at-risk for both severe storms
and flash flooding. These risks are highlighted by both the Weather
Prediction Center and Storm Prediction Center as both national centers
have Slight Risks issued for portions of New Mexico and West Texas through
the remainder of Saturday. The frontal system responsible for the
severe/flash flood threat today heads into the central and northern Great
Plains on Sunday. Strong-to-severe storms will develop Sunday and linger
into Sunday night. WPC maintains a Slight Risk over the Dakotas and a
Marginal Risk that extends from the North Dakota/Canada border on south to
central Kansas. SPC has an even lengthier Marginal Risk that goes as far
south as the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. This frontal system should
gradually weaken heading into Monday, but there will still be lingering
heavy showers and storms across the the Northern and Central Plains, as
well as the Upper Midwest, with North Dakota most at-risk for locally
heavy rainfall and potentially some severe weather.
Elsewhere, an approaching Pacific cold front will deliver a shot of cooler
than normal temperatures to the Pacific Northwest on Sunday and persist
into Monday. In addition to the cooler temperatures, the front will also
trigger scattered showers and some thunderstorms from the Pacific
Northwest on Sunday, then throughout the Northern Rockies late Sunday into
Monday. Off the East Coast, a dawdling wave of low pressure will slowly
inch its way west towards the Southeast coast to the point were some
showers and storms reach the eastern Carolinas late Sunday and into
Monday. This wave of low pressure is likely to cause some rough seas and
gusty winds from the eastern Carolinas on north to the coastlines of the
DelMarVa Peninsula. Lastly, a lingering frontal boundary over the Middle
Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley are likely to initiate scattered
showers and storms today and through Sunday. WPC does have a small
Marginal Risk in place for much of Indiana through this afternoon and
evening.
Temperature-wise, while the Pacific Northwest cools off, much of the
eastern two-thirds of the country will not fully shake summer's grasp just
yet. The hottest temperatures compared to normal will be located in the
Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley where daytime highs will range from
the mid 80s to the mid 90s. Some portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley
will remain mired in an ongoing mid-September heat wave with some
locations approaching daily record highs. Overnight lows will be on the
warmer side in these regions as well. Farther east, unseasonably warm
temperatures will stretch from the Mid-South and Great Lakes on east to
the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures will be closer to seasonal in
the Southwest. The Southeast coast will also be seasonally cool given the
increasing cloud cover and rain chances into the start of the week.
