863
ACUS01 KWNS 010102
SWODY1
SPC AC 010100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be
possible this evening into tonight across parts of southwest Texas.

...Southwest and South-central Texas...
A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over
far northeastern Mexico. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is
located across south Texas, with a post-frontal airmass in place
over much of southwest and south-central Texas. A strong
thunderstorm is ongoing to the east of the Sierra Madre Oriental
mountains in northern Mexico. This storm will move eastward toward
the Rio Grande and will likely cross the river later this evening.
Mid evening RAP forecast soundings in the Laredo, Texas vicinity
have effective shear around 65 knots with 700-500 mb lapse rates
near 7 C/km. This will support a large hail threat. On the forecast
sounding, the temperature is nearly isothermal in the lowest 1000
meters, with CAPE mainly concentrated above 700 mb suggesting that
any supercell will likely be elevated. The large hail threat could
continue into the late evening and early overnight period, but the
area should be confined to a small area in southwest and
south-central Texas.

..Broyles.. 05/01/2026

$$

475
ACUS02 KWNS 301711
SWODY2
SPC AC 301709

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTH
TEXAS INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorm development is possible across parts of
South Texas and middle Texas coastal areas, parts of southeastern
Louisiana, and the western Florida Panhandle Friday afternoon
through Friday night.

...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic flow aloft will persist across much of the U.S. east
of the Continental Divide on Friday. A shortwave trough will dig
through the central Plains into the Southeast through the period.
Within the subtropical jet, another shortwave trough will begin the
day in the Trans-Pecos and move eastward roughly along the Gulf
Coast. These two features will eventually phase by late afternoon
into the evening. The mid-level jet will increase in intensity in
response. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be positioned from
South Texas and eastward along the Gulf Coast. As the southern
stream trough progresses east, a weak frontal low will develop and
perhaps allow some inland advancement of upper 60s/low 70s F
dewpoints.

...South Texas/Middle Texas Coast...
Rich moisture will exist south of the surface boundary. Southward
progression of the boundary will determine how much risk of
surface-based convection there will be. Given the amount of
precipitation north of the front, there may be a tendency for most
storms to be undercut except closer to the coast. With 60+ kts of
effective shear, supercells will be possible despite modest
buoyancy/mid-level lapse rates. Where storms can remain surface
based, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado would be possible. Large
hail could occur even with storms that become slightly elevated.

...Southeast Louisiana into Florida Panhandle...
Severe potential along the central/eastern Gulf coast hinges on the
degree of inland moisture advancement. The expectation is for
low-level warm advection to increase with time and eastward extent.
This would suggest slightly higher confidence of
near-surface/surface-based storms in parts of the Florida Panhandle
to the Apalachicola vicinity. A mix of linear and supercell
structures appears possible. Damaging winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The tornado threat is more conditional,
but nonzero. This threat would be maximized with any discrete storms
that develop and move inland.

..Wendt.. 04/30/2026

$$

491
ACUS03 KWNS 301929
SWODY3
SPC AC 301928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN
GEORGIA INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to marginally severe storms are possible in southern Georgia
into northern/central Florida.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough across the eastern U.S. will continue to pivot
through the Southeast. A surface cold front will move southward into
the Florida Peninsula.

...Southern Georgia into Florida...
Rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) is
expected to exist ahead of the southward-moving cold front.
Mid-level ascent will be strongest across southern Georgia and North
Florida, diminishing with southward extent. Strong flow within the
850-500 mb layer will help to organize convection. Areas that
receive greater surface heating could allow a few strong to severe
storms to develop during the late morning/afternoon. Deep-layer
shear will be strong, but will also be parallel to the front. At
least some activity may have a tendency to be undercut. Both
supercells and small clusters will be possible. Large hail and
damaging winds are the primary concerns. Low-level shear will be
greater in the morning and decrease with time as the low-level jet
moves northeast, leading to a more uncertain tornado threat.

..Wendt.. 04/30/2026

$$

465
ACUS48 KWNS 300902
SWOD48
SPC AC 300900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Late this coming weekend into early next week, it still appears that
at least a transient blocking high may continue to evolve offshore
of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast. It remains a bit
uncertain how long this will persist before becoming suppressed, and
an evolving low to its southeast is forced inland across southern
California into the Southwest.

Latest medium range guidance continues to indicate that it is
possible that a short wave perturbation could emerge from the
remnant low/troughing, in advance of another significant short wave
impulse emerging from the higher latitudes before amplifying
southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, through the Atlantic
Seaboard by the end of the period. However, it now appears probable
that modest troughing, perhaps with a continuing cyclonic
circulation, will linger near and south of the Southwestern
international border.

In lower levels, southerly moist return flow may commence by early
next week across the southern into central Great Plains as surface
troughing deepens to the lee of the Rockies. This may begin to more
substantively advect northeastward toward the Ohio Valley, in
advance of a southward advancing cold front associated with the
digging mid-level troughing. However, there is notable spread among
the model output concerning potential surface cyclogenesis, near
and northeast of the Rockies.

Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development appears
possible from parts of the central and southern Great Plains into
the Mississippi Valley by Tuesday, if not Monday. However,
inhibition associated with warm elevated mixed-layer air
overspreading the southern Great Plains may become a limiting
factor, as low-level moisture becomes more supportive of strong
destabilization.

There remains at least some signal in the model output for
potentially more widespread strong to severe thunderstorm
development across the lower/middle Mississippi Valley into Ohio
Valley by next Wednesday, perhaps into Thursday. However, with
uncertainties remaining sizable at this extended time frame, severe
probabilities still appear less than 15 percent.

..Kerr.. 04/30/2026