| 15% |
| 30% |
| Thunderstorms |
| 1: Marginal |
| 2: Slight |
| 3: Enhanced |
| 4: Moderate |
| 5: High |
| 2% |
| 5% |
| 10% |
| 15% |
| 30% |
| 45% |
| 60% |
 | Sig |
| 5% |
| 15% |
| 30% |
| 45% |
| 60% |
| Sig |
| 5% |
| 15% |
| 30% |
| 45% |
| 60% |
| Sig |
881 ACUS01 KWNS 261247 SWODY1 SPC AC 261245 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid/upper-level low over CA. A split-flow pattern is located downstream over the central U.S. with southwesterly flow over the Desert Southwest, and northwesterly flow over the Upper Midwest in association with large-scale troughing centered over Hudson Bay. Cold mid-level temperatures associated with the CA upper low will yield intermittent pockets of weak buoyancy from the central valley into southern coastal CA. As a result, weak convection may yield a few sporadic lightning flashes mainly today into this evening. Farther east, persistent low-level warm/moist advection, via the warm conveyor atop a slowly modifying CP airmass along the northwest Gulf Coast, will favor showers and eventually scattered thunderstorm development over east TX into the lower MS Valley. Despite strong mid to high-level westerly flow, limited storm organization is forecast due primarily to weak instability. A vigorous updraft or two cannot be ruled out over east TX on the eastern periphery of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX raob; 8.7 deg C/km). Yet, gradual moistening of the mid troposphere via convection will act to hinder a localized Marginal hail risk. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/26/2025 $$
953 ACUS02 KWNS 260656 SWODY2 SPC AC 260654 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in the lower Mississippi Valley and in southern California, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances southward across the lower Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the start of the period along or near the front. Further west, a mid-level low will move southward along the coast of southern California. Isolated lightning strikes could occur near the low. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Monday or Monday night. ..Broyles.. 01/26/2025 $$
225 ACUS03 KWNS 260804 SWODY3 SPC AC 260803 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are forecast over the continental U.S. on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level ridge is forecast over the southern Plains on Tuesday, as an upper-level low moves southward across the Desert Southwest. Mid-level flow will become more southwesterly over western parts of the southern Plains, as low-level moisture advection occurs across the southern part of Texas. Although showers could develop late in the period near the northern edge of the stronger flow over northeast Texas and southeastern Oklahoma, instability should be too weak to support thunderstorm development. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/26/2025 $$
088 ACUS48 KWNS 261001 SWOD48 SPC AC 260959 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5... A mid-level low is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest from Wednesday/Day 4 into Thursday/Day 5. Low-level moisture advection will take place ahead of the system across the southern Plains on Wednesday into Wednesday night, with surface dewpoints increasing into the 60s F across parts of the southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms appear likely to develop across the western part of the moist sector Wednesday night across much of central and northern Texas, as large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching system. This, combined with increasing instability, and strong deep-layer shear along the western edge of the moist sector should result in a severe threat late Wednesday night. A cluster of strong and potentially severe storms may develop in west-central Texas, with the severe threat persisting into Thursday, as an MCS moves eastward across the southern Plains. Supercells with isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible. There is some concern that moisture return could be slower than forecast. However, the strength of the system could help to overcome instability concerns, and it appears a severe threat will be possible as the mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the southern Plains from Wednesday night into Thursday. ...Friday/Day 6 and Sunday/Day 8... The mid-level trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Friday/Day 6, as a cold front advances eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. On Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8, this front is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. Although thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front, instability is forecast to be very weak suggesting a severe threat will be unlikely. ..Broyles.. 01/26/2025
