15% |
30% |
Thunderstorms |
1: Marginal |
2: Slight |
3: Enhanced |
4: Moderate |
5: High |
2% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
30% |
45% |
60% |
Sig |
5% |
15% |
30% |
45% |
60% |
Sig |
5% |
15% |
30% |
45% |
60% |
Sig |
440 ACUS01 KWNS 260101 SWODY1 SPC AC 260059 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST-CENTRAL NM INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with potential for large to very large hail, isolated severe gusts, and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening from eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains and Permian Basin. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... Several supercells are ongoing this evening from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle, South Plains, and Permian Basin. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorably veering wind profiles will maintain supercell potential through much of the evening, with eventual storm clustering and upscale growth possible later tonight, due to continued storm interactions and a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. Tornado potential will persist and may locally increase through the evening, as 0-1 km SRH increases above 200 m2/s2 in conjunction with the strengthening low-level jet. A conditional threat for a strong tornado remains evident with any supercell that can persist near a surface boundary extending from east-central NM into the TX South Plains. Otherwise, supercells will continue pose a threat of very large hail and isolated severe gusts through the evening. Late tonight, one or more storm clusters may spread east-southeastward toward southwest OK and western north TX, with a threat of strong to severe gusts, hail, and possibly a tornado. ...Southern OH into western WV... A small portion of the Marginal Risk has been maintained from extreme southern OH into western WV, where a couple of small rotating cells may persist for another hour or two before weakening later this evening. ..Dean.. 04/26/2025 $$
606 ACUS02 KWNS 251730 SWODY2 SPC AC 251728 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into adjacent western Texas. ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging aloft will persist across the central U.S. Saturday, as short-wave troughing over the Great Lakes region moves into/across the Lower Lakes/Northeast, and a western U.S. upper low makes slow eastward progress across California and into Nevada. At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, while trailing westward across the Gulf Coast states and into the southern Plains. ...Parts of eastern New Mexico and adjacent western Texas... Widespread convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period within a zone from far eastern New Mexico eastward to Oklahoma/North Texas. Resulting cloud cover and likely southward progression of outflow across western Texas casts some uncertainty with respect to recovery of the afternoon airmass across the MRGL risk area. Presuming ample heating occurs, isolated, new-storm development -- likely near remnant outflow -- may pose additional potential for local, all-hazards severe potential. This area will likely require some adjustment in later outlooks, as the effects of early-day convection can be more accurately ascertained. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 $$
354 ACUS03 KWNS 251932 SWODY3 SPC AC 251931 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Synopsis... Continued eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low/trough will occur Sunday. Eventually, this trough will begin to displace persistent central U.S. upper ridging, with the first effects -- in the form height falls -- spreading gradually across the Plains Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Ahead of the trough, a cold front crossing the western U.S. will begin to emerge into the Plains, trailing southwestward from a low shifting gradually into/across the Nebraska vicinity. By the end of the period, this front should extend from the Mid Missouri Valley south-southwestward to West Texas. ...The Plains... Low-level moistening spreading northward across the Plains in advance of the approaching front will combine with daytime heating to result in moderate pre-frontal destabilization. The effects of ridging-induced subsidence -- in the form of boundary-layer capping -- will persist through much of the day, hindering more widespread development of diurnal storms. By late afternoon/early evening however, isolated storm development is expected, likely most widespread across the Nebraska vicinity just ahead of the surface low shifting into the region. Here, increasing mid-level flow atop low-level southerlies will provide sufficient shear for a few severe/rotating storms, likely accompanied by an all-hazards severe risk. Farther south along the advancing front, storms should remain much more isolated, but would likely pose local severe risk given a thermodynamic and kinematic environment that would support organized/rotating storms. Overnight, an increasing southerly low-level jet -- and associated warm advection across the Dakotas atop the warm front -- should sustain late-period storms, and at least some severe risk. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 $$
029 ACUS48 KWNS 250856 SWOD48 SPC AC 250854 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Mon - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen and move from the northern Plains to the northern Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly lower tropospheric flow will advect high theta-e air northward across the Midwest and into parts of the Upper Midwest. Broken to scattered cloudcover will support surface heating and strong destabilization across the warm sector from southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin to the southern Plains. Isolated to scattered supercells are likely along the dryline which will extend from the southern Plains and into Kansas. The greatest focus for severe weather on Monday will be from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri, much of Iowa and into southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Moderate to strong instability, strong shear, and increasing forcing for ascent supports the potential for numerous rounds of severe thunderstorms. The wind profile supports supercells capable of all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. ...Day 5/Tue - Southern Plains to parts of the Northeast... The surface low associated with the Day 4 threat will continue northeast and bring its associated cold front eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes through the day Tuesday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast south of this front from northern New York to the Ohio Valley. Much of the frontal zone should have sufficient shear to support multiple storm clusters and the potential for a few supercells. Day 6/Wed-Day8/Fri - Portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Southeast... A weaker mid-level shortwave trough is consistently depicted by extended range guidance by the middle of next week across the southern Plains. However, significant uncertainty remains about the strength of this trough and location of any frontal zones. In addition, convection across the southern Plains each day of the extended range forecast could significantly impact destabilization by Day 6-8. Therefore, confidence is not high enough to add probabilities at this time, but they may eventually be needed somewhere across the Southeast/Mid Mississippi Valley. ..Bentley.. 04/25/2025