Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Valid 300100Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Discussion...
The general prevalence of cold/stable conditions will preclude
thunderstorm development across the CONUS through tonight.
..Guyer.. 01/30/2026
$$
553
ACUS02 KWNS 291707
SWODY2
SPC AC 291705
Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Friday through Friday
night appear less than 10 percent.
...Discussion...
There appears little change from prior model runs concerning the
general mid/upper flow evolution through this period. A lower
latitude blocking regime may become a bit more prominent
near/offshore of southern California and the Baja California
Peninsula, with larger-scale ridging being maintained within the
primary belt of westerlies across the Pacific coast through Rockies.
This is forecast to include short wave ridging building along the
British Columbia coast, in the wake of a short wave trough
progressing inland across the Canadian and adjacent northern U.S.
Rockies, and downstream of a large upper trough and broad/deep
cyclone migrating northeastward across the eastern mid-latitude
Pacific.
Downstream, several short wave perturbations, including one vigorous
digging impulse (emanating from the Hudson Bay vicinity), are
forecast to consolidate into amplifying, positively tilted
larger-scale troughing encompassing much of the lower Mississippi
Valley and Gulf Basin through southern Atlantic Seaboard by late
Friday night. It still appears that this will be accompanied by
only weak surface frontal wave development along a strengthening
low-level baroclinic zone across the northeastern Gulf Basin during
the day Friday. There appears to be better consensus among the
various models concerning modest cyclogenesis initiating along the
same frontal zone offshore of the Carolina coast, and along a
remnant surface frontal zone across and northeast of the Bahamas, by
late Friday night.
...Pacific Northwest...
In the wake of a weak inland advancing frontal precipitation band,
models indicate that a modest mid-level cold pool will overspread
coastal areas during the day Friday. However, forecast soundings
indicate that this will not lead to boundary-layer destabilization
supportive of an appreciable risk for convection capable of
producing lightning.
...South Atlantic Seaboard...
Both NAM and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings suggest that some
further boundary-layer moistening is possible near southeastern
Florida coastal areas and parts of the Keys, where near-surface flow
may maintain an easterly component into the day Friday. It is
possible that this may contribute conditionally unstable
thermodynamic profiles in the lower- to mid-troposphere, which could
become supportive of scattered showers. However, it still appears
probable that a substantive warm/dry layer further aloft will
suppress thunderstorm development, before the boundary-layer
stabilizes in response to cooling/drying, as near-surface winds back
to north/northwesterly.
Otherwise, through at least this period, it appears that
destabilization supportive of thunderstorm development, associated
with the developing low offshore of the Carolina coast, will remain
focused near the Gulf Stream.
..Kerr.. 01/29/2026
$$
393
ACUS03 KWNS 291903
SWODY3
SPC AC 291902
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Saturday through
Saturday night appear less than 10 percent.
...Discussion...
Models suggest that short waves within split flow across the eastern
Pacific into western North America will remain progressive Saturday
through Saturday night. This includes a large and vigorous, but
slowly weakening, mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone
within the primary belt of westerlies, which are forecast to
approach coastal areas from Alaska into the Pacific Northwest.
While colder mid-level temperatures, potentially supportive of weak
boundary-layer destabilization, are forecast to remain offshore, the
leading edge of stronger mid-level height falls may begin spreading
inland of the Pacific coast during the latter half of the period.
It appears an evolving mid-level high in the southern mid-latitudes
will be forced inland across southern California into the southern
Great Basin, with a trailing cyclonic circulation approaching
northern Baja. However, models indicate that amplified downstream
mid-level ridging will be maintained through at least this period
across the Canadian Rockies and adjacent Prairies into the northern
U.S. Intermountain Region and Rockies.
Digging short waves to the lee of this ridge will reinforce
large-scale troughing east of the Rockies through the U.S. Atlantic
Seaboard. However, the most prominent perturbation within this
regime is forecast to pivot across and offshore of the southern
Atlantic Seaboard. As it does, it appears that a broad offshore
surface low will undergo notable deepening.
While considerable spread remains evident in association with
developments across and offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard, it
appears that this may include at least a couple of areas of
significant embedded cyclogenesis by late Saturday night. One
cyclone may continue to deepen along a frontal zone northeast of the
Bahamas, across and north/northeast of the Bermuda vicinity, with
higher moisture content generally confined to areas along and
southeast of this track.
Along a stronger baroclinic zone closer to the Carolina coast, it
appears that a much more rapidly deepening and stronger, but
similarly compact, cyclone may develop to the east of the coastal
waters. However, within a cooler/drier environment, models suggest
that any destabilization potentially supportive of thunderstorm
development may be confined to areas well offshore, near the Gulf
Stream.
..Kerr.. 01/29/2026
$$
763
ACUS48 KWNS 290943
SWOD48
SPC AC 290942
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather potential is low through the extended forecast
period. A strong upper low embedded within persistent broad-scale
troughing over the East will move offshore this weekend with several
other perturbations behind it. Continued northwesterly flow aloft
and the passage of several cold fronts early next week will
reinforce a cool air mass over the central US. This will largely
suppress substantial inland moisture return for the foreseeable
future. While some thunderstorm potential may exist along the Gulf
Coast with a more substantial trough passage later next week,
overall thunderstorm/severe potential is very low through the
extended forecast period.
