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ACUS01 KWNS 010102
SWODY1
SPC AC 010100
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 010100Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be
possible this evening into tonight across parts of southwest Texas.
...Southwest and South-central Texas...
A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over
far northeastern Mexico. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is
located across south Texas, with a post-frontal airmass in place
over much of southwest and south-central Texas. A strong
thunderstorm is ongoing to the east of the Sierra Madre Oriental
mountains in northern Mexico. This storm will move eastward toward
the Rio Grande and will likely cross the river later this evening.
Mid evening RAP forecast soundings in the Laredo, Texas vicinity
have effective shear around 65 knots with 700-500 mb lapse rates
near 7 C/km. This will support a large hail threat. On the forecast
sounding, the temperature is nearly isothermal in the lowest 1000
meters, with CAPE mainly concentrated above 700 mb suggesting that
any supercell will likely be elevated. The large hail threat could
continue into the late evening and early overnight period, but the
area should be confined to a small area in southwest and
south-central Texas.
..Broyles.. 05/01/2026
$$
ACUS01 KWNS 010102
SWODY1
SPC AC 010100
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 010100Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be
possible this evening into tonight across parts of southwest Texas.
...Southwest and South-central Texas...
A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over
far northeastern Mexico. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is
located across south Texas, with a post-frontal airmass in place
over much of southwest and south-central Texas. A strong
thunderstorm is ongoing to the east of the Sierra Madre Oriental
mountains in northern Mexico. This storm will move eastward toward
the Rio Grande and will likely cross the river later this evening.
Mid evening RAP forecast soundings in the Laredo, Texas vicinity
have effective shear around 65 knots with 700-500 mb lapse rates
near 7 C/km. This will support a large hail threat. On the forecast
sounding, the temperature is nearly isothermal in the lowest 1000
meters, with CAPE mainly concentrated above 700 mb suggesting that
any supercell will likely be elevated. The large hail threat could
continue into the late evening and early overnight period, but the
area should be confined to a small area in southwest and
south-central Texas.
..Broyles.. 05/01/2026
$$
173
ACUS02 KWNS 010501
SWODY2
SPC AC 010500
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into
northern/central Florida Saturday morning into early evening.
...FL vicinity...
An upper trough over the MS Valley vicinity will pivot east across
the Southeast on Saturday. Strong deep-layer west/southwesterly flow
associated with this system will overspread the region. Deep-layer
flow will weaken with southward extent across the FL Peninsula
during the afternoon, but 850-500 mb southwesterly flow is forecast
to remain robust across southern GA into northern/central FL for
much of the day. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented
across the NC/SC coastal plain, extending southwestward to near the
FL/GA line and offshore across the north-central Gulf. Ahead of the
front, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place.
Convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the cold front
Saturday morning. Current CAMs guidance varies with regard to storm
mode and intensity early in the period, with the 00z HRRR being a
notable outlier showing a small but well organized bowing MCS across
the eastern FL Panhandle and southwest GA. Most of the rest of the
CAMs guidance trends toward thunderstorm clusters. The low-level jet
will be favorable for organized convection, and an organized linear
system is possible, but uncertain. Downstream from early-period
convection, upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints will aid in modest
destabilization. Where stronger heating can occur MLCAPE may
increase to around 1000-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer flow will remain
parallel to the surface boundary, so some potential for undercutting
convection by the front is possible. Nevertheless, given the
strength of deep layer flow and strong vertical shear amid
sufficient instability, severe storms posing a risk for damaging
wind gusts is possible. If any more discrete convection can develop,
isolated hail is also possible. The tornado risk is less certain
given a weakening low-level jet with time, questions regarding storm
mode, and overall uncertainty in low-level destabilization.
..Leitman.. 05/01/2026
$$
ACUS02 KWNS 010501
SWODY2
SPC AC 010500
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into
northern/central Florida Saturday morning into early evening.
...FL vicinity...
An upper trough over the MS Valley vicinity will pivot east across
the Southeast on Saturday. Strong deep-layer west/southwesterly flow
associated with this system will overspread the region. Deep-layer
flow will weaken with southward extent across the FL Peninsula
during the afternoon, but 850-500 mb southwesterly flow is forecast
to remain robust across southern GA into northern/central FL for
much of the day. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented
across the NC/SC coastal plain, extending southwestward to near the
FL/GA line and offshore across the north-central Gulf. Ahead of the
front, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place.
Convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the cold front
Saturday morning. Current CAMs guidance varies with regard to storm
mode and intensity early in the period, with the 00z HRRR being a
notable outlier showing a small but well organized bowing MCS across
the eastern FL Panhandle and southwest GA. Most of the rest of the
CAMs guidance trends toward thunderstorm clusters. The low-level jet
will be favorable for organized convection, and an organized linear
system is possible, but uncertain. Downstream from early-period
convection, upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints will aid in modest
destabilization. Where stronger heating can occur MLCAPE may
increase to around 1000-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer flow will remain
parallel to the surface boundary, so some potential for undercutting
convection by the front is possible. Nevertheless, given the
strength of deep layer flow and strong vertical shear amid
sufficient instability, severe storms posing a risk for damaging
wind gusts is possible. If any more discrete convection can develop,
isolated hail is also possible. The tornado risk is less certain
given a weakening low-level jet with time, questions regarding storm
mode, and overall uncertainty in low-level destabilization.
..Leitman.. 05/01/2026
$$
491
ACUS03 KWNS 301929
SWODY3
SPC AC 301928
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN
GEORGIA INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to marginally severe storms are possible in southern Georgia
into northern/central Florida.
...Synopsis...
A large upper trough across the eastern U.S. will continue to pivot
through the Southeast. A surface cold front will move southward into
the Florida Peninsula.
...Southern Georgia into Florida...
Rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) is
expected to exist ahead of the southward-moving cold front.
Mid-level ascent will be strongest across southern Georgia and North
Florida, diminishing with southward extent. Strong flow within the
850-500 mb layer will help to organize convection. Areas that
receive greater surface heating could allow a few strong to severe
storms to develop during the late morning/afternoon. Deep-layer
shear will be strong, but will also be parallel to the front. At
least some activity may have a tendency to be undercut. Both
supercells and small clusters will be possible. Large hail and
damaging winds are the primary concerns. Low-level shear will be
greater in the morning and decrease with time as the low-level jet
moves northeast, leading to a more uncertain tornado threat.
..Wendt.. 04/30/2026
$$
ACUS03 KWNS 301929
SWODY3
SPC AC 301928
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN
GEORGIA INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to marginally severe storms are possible in southern Georgia
into northern/central Florida.
...Synopsis...
A large upper trough across the eastern U.S. will continue to pivot
through the Southeast. A surface cold front will move southward into
the Florida Peninsula.
...Southern Georgia into Florida...
Rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) is
expected to exist ahead of the southward-moving cold front.
Mid-level ascent will be strongest across southern Georgia and North
Florida, diminishing with southward extent. Strong flow within the
850-500 mb layer will help to organize convection. Areas that
receive greater surface heating could allow a few strong to severe
storms to develop during the late morning/afternoon. Deep-layer
shear will be strong, but will also be parallel to the front. At
least some activity may have a tendency to be undercut. Both
supercells and small clusters will be possible. Large hail and
damaging winds are the primary concerns. Low-level shear will be
greater in the morning and decrease with time as the low-level jet
moves northeast, leading to a more uncertain tornado threat.
..Wendt.. 04/30/2026
$$
465
ACUS48 KWNS 300902
SWOD48
SPC AC 300900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Late this coming weekend into early next week, it still appears that
at least a transient blocking high may continue to evolve offshore
of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast. It remains a bit
uncertain how long this will persist before becoming suppressed, and
an evolving low to its southeast is forced inland across southern
California into the Southwest.
Latest medium range guidance continues to indicate that it is
possible that a short wave perturbation could emerge from the
remnant low/troughing, in advance of another significant short wave
impulse emerging from the higher latitudes before amplifying
southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, through the Atlantic
Seaboard by the end of the period. However, it now appears probable
that modest troughing, perhaps with a continuing cyclonic
circulation, will linger near and south of the Southwestern
international border.
In lower levels, southerly moist return flow may commence by early
next week across the southern into central Great Plains as surface
troughing deepens to the lee of the Rockies. This may begin to more
substantively advect northeastward toward the Ohio Valley, in
advance of a southward advancing cold front associated with the
digging mid-level troughing. However, there is notable spread among
the model output concerning potential surface cyclogenesis, near
and northeast of the Rockies.
Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development appears
possible from parts of the central and southern Great Plains into
the Mississippi Valley by Tuesday, if not Monday. However,
inhibition associated with warm elevated mixed-layer air
overspreading the southern Great Plains may become a limiting
factor, as low-level moisture becomes more supportive of strong
destabilization.
There remains at least some signal in the model output for
potentially more widespread strong to severe thunderstorm
development across the lower/middle Mississippi Valley into Ohio
Valley by next Wednesday, perhaps into Thursday. However, with
uncertainties remaining sizable at this extended time frame, severe
probabilities still appear less than 15 percent.
..Kerr.. 04/30/2026
ACUS48 KWNS 300902
SWOD48
SPC AC 300900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Late this coming weekend into early next week, it still appears that
at least a transient blocking high may continue to evolve offshore
of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast. It remains a bit
uncertain how long this will persist before becoming suppressed, and
an evolving low to its southeast is forced inland across southern
California into the Southwest.
Latest medium range guidance continues to indicate that it is
possible that a short wave perturbation could emerge from the
remnant low/troughing, in advance of another significant short wave
impulse emerging from the higher latitudes before amplifying
southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, through the Atlantic
Seaboard by the end of the period. However, it now appears probable
that modest troughing, perhaps with a continuing cyclonic
circulation, will linger near and south of the Southwestern
international border.
In lower levels, southerly moist return flow may commence by early
next week across the southern into central Great Plains as surface
troughing deepens to the lee of the Rockies. This may begin to more
substantively advect northeastward toward the Ohio Valley, in
advance of a southward advancing cold front associated with the
digging mid-level troughing. However, there is notable spread among
the model output concerning potential surface cyclogenesis, near
and northeast of the Rockies.
Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development appears
possible from parts of the central and southern Great Plains into
the Mississippi Valley by Tuesday, if not Monday. However,
inhibition associated with warm elevated mixed-layer air
overspreading the southern Great Plains may become a limiting
factor, as low-level moisture becomes more supportive of strong
destabilization.
There remains at least some signal in the model output for
potentially more widespread strong to severe thunderstorm
development across the lower/middle Mississippi Valley into Ohio
Valley by next Wednesday, perhaps into Thursday. However, with
uncertainties remaining sizable at this extended time frame, severe
probabilities still appear less than 15 percent.
..Kerr.. 04/30/2026