Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025
Valid 051300Z - 061200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast
today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level flow will persist across the
Southeast today, as large-scale upper troughing over the
central/eastern CONUS is further reinforced by multiple shortwave
troughs advancing east-southeastward. At the surface, a cold front
will slowly sag southeastward over south GA/north FL through the
period. Generally elevated thunderstorms may occur today along/north
of the front. But with poor mid-level lapse rates present, weak
low-level convergence due to veered southwesterly low-level winds,
and limited instability forecast, the chance for sustained
surface-based convection and related severe potential appears low.
..Gleason/Jewell.. 12/05/2025
$$
739
ACUS02 KWNS 050547
SWODY2
SPC AC 050545
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Aside from a possible isolated weak thunderstorm or two across parts
of the central Florida Peninsula, the risk for thunderstorms appears
negligible across much of the nation Saturday through Saturday
night.
...Discussion...
Models indicate little change to the large-scale pattern across much
of North America through this period. Downstream of lingering
mid/upper ridging just inland of the Pacific coast, flow will
continue to split into broad troughing centered within one branch,
across Hudson Bay through portions of the Great Lakes and Northeast,
and another, across the central/southern Great Plains through
Southeast. Weak, positively-tilted troughing is also forecast to
linger across and southwest of southern Baja, between an
increasingly suppressed high over the southern mid-latitude to
subtropical eastern Pacific and ridging across the Caribbean through
western subtropical Atlantic.
In lower levels, the primary surface front may advance a bit farther
offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and into the central
Florida Peninsula, but models suggest it will stall across the
northwestern Gulf Basin and perhaps redevelop northward toward
northeastern Gulf coastal areas Saturday night.
...Northeastern Gulf coast/Florida Peninsula...
Low-level moistening and insolation may contribute to boundary-layer
destabilization in a corridor near/just ahead of the front across
the central Florida Peninsula during the day Saturday. While this
could become supportive of at least attempts at deepening convective
development by late Saturday afternoon, relatively warm mid-level
temperatures and weak mid/upper forcing for ascent seem likely to
limit thunderstorm development to perhaps a weak thunderstorm or
two.
Better potential for thunderstorms may develop by late Saturday
night across the northeastern Gulf, aided by forcing for ascent
downstream of digging mid-level troughing across the southern Great
Plains, perhaps preceded by a perturbation emerging from the
subtropics. This might include convection rooted with lift
associated with lower/mid-troposphere warm advection, as far north
as coastal southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Big Bend vicinity.
..Kerr.. 12/05/2025
$$
490
ACUS03 KWNS 050745
SWODY3
SPC AC 050744
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Sunday through Sunday night.
...Discussion...
Models indicate that mid/upper ridging may rebuild offshore of the
British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, while being maintained
across and inland of coastal areas through this period. Downstream
flow may not change appreciably on the larger-scale, but one broad
embedded cyclonic circulation may redevelop southeast of the
Hudson/James Bay vicinity through central Quebec, while a
consolidating perturbation within another stream digs across the
central/southern Great Plains toward the Southeast.
The latter feature is forecast to be accompanied by a reinforcing
cold intrusion across the Gulf coast into northwest Gulf Basin by
late Sunday night. Downstream, a weak low may begin to develop
along the initially stalled/slow moving frontal zone, east of the
Florida Peninsula.
...Florida...
Forecast soundings indicate that relatively warm layers aloft will
continue to hinder potential for deep convective development over
the interior central and southern peninsula Sunday through Sunday
night. In general, guidance suggests that better coupling of
mid/upper forcing for ascent and higher boundary-layer moisture
content may be confined to areas along/ahead of the front across the
northeastern into central Gulf Basin and offshore western Atlantic.
..Kerr.. 12/05/2025
$$
231
ACUS48 KWNS 050909
SWOD48
SPC AC 050908
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance indicates that at least modestly amplified
mid/upper ridging will continue to build and be maintained across
the Pacific coast into the Rockies through next week. Within the
northwesterly flow downstream of this feature, several digging short
wave perturbations appear likely to reinforce large-scale troughing
across the eastern U.S., while also contributing to occasional
surface cyclogenesis from the lee of the northern Rockies through
the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. However, these are not
likely to be accompanied by a strengthening southerly return flow
emanating from the Gulf Basin. Regardless, in the wake of a
reinforcing cold intrusion across much of the Florida Peninsula, and
through much of the Gulf Basin, early next week, it appears that
boundary-layer modification over the Gulf will not become conducive
to appreciable inland low-level moisture return.
