440
ACUS01 KWNS 260101
SWODY1
SPC AC 260059
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
EAST-CENTRAL NM INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with potential for large to very large hail,
isolated severe gusts, and a few tornadoes remain possible this
evening from eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains and
Permian Basin.
...Southern High Plains vicinity...
Several supercells are ongoing this evening from eastern NM into the
TX Panhandle, South Plains, and Permian Basin. Moderate to strong
buoyancy and favorably veering wind profiles will maintain supercell
potential through much of the evening, with eventual storm
clustering and upscale growth possible later tonight, due to
continued storm interactions and a nocturnally strengthening
low-level jet.
Tornado potential will persist and may locally increase through the
evening, as 0-1 km SRH increases above 200 m2/s2 in conjunction with
the strengthening low-level jet. A conditional threat for a strong
tornado remains evident with any supercell that can persist near a
surface boundary extending from east-central NM into the TX South
Plains. Otherwise, supercells will continue pose a threat of very
large hail and isolated severe gusts through the evening.
Late tonight, one or more storm clusters may spread
east-southeastward toward southwest OK and western north TX, with a
threat of strong to severe gusts, hail, and possibly a tornado.
...Southern OH into western WV...
A small portion of the Marginal Risk has been maintained from
extreme southern OH into western WV, where a couple of small
rotating cells may persist for another hour or two before weakening
later this evening.
..Dean.. 04/26/2025
$$
606
ACUS02 KWNS 251730
SWODY2
SPC AC 251728
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WESTERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
across portions of eastern New Mexico into adjacent western Texas.
...Synopsis...
Large-scale ridging aloft will persist across the central U.S.
Saturday, as short-wave troughing over the Great Lakes region moves
into/across the Lower Lakes/Northeast, and a western U.S. upper low
makes slow eastward progress across California and into Nevada.
At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, while trailing westward across
the Gulf Coast states and into the southern Plains.
...Parts of eastern New Mexico and adjacent western Texas...
Widespread convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the
period within a zone from far eastern New Mexico eastward to
Oklahoma/North Texas. Resulting cloud cover and likely southward
progression of outflow across western Texas casts some uncertainty
with respect to recovery of the afternoon airmass across the MRGL
risk area. Presuming ample heating occurs, isolated, new-storm
development -- likely near remnant outflow -- may pose additional
potential for local, all-hazards severe potential. This area will
likely require some adjustment in later outlooks, as the effects of
early-day convection can be more accurately ascertained.
..Goss.. 04/25/2025
$$
354
ACUS03 KWNS 251932
SWODY3
SPC AC 251931
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEBRASKA AND VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains
and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms
are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday
evening/night.
...Synopsis...
Continued eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low/trough
will occur Sunday. Eventually, this trough will begin to displace
persistent central U.S. upper ridging, with the first effects -- in
the form height falls -- spreading gradually across the Plains
Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.
Ahead of the trough, a cold front crossing the western U.S. will
begin to emerge into the Plains, trailing southwestward from a low
shifting gradually into/across the Nebraska vicinity. By the end of
the period, this front should extend from the Mid Missouri Valley
south-southwestward to West Texas.
...The Plains...
Low-level moistening spreading northward across the Plains in
advance of the approaching front will combine with daytime heating
to result in moderate pre-frontal destabilization. The effects of
ridging-induced subsidence -- in the form of boundary-layer capping
-- will persist through much of the day, hindering more widespread
development of diurnal storms.
By late afternoon/early evening however, isolated storm development
is expected, likely most widespread across the Nebraska vicinity
just ahead of the surface low shifting into the region. Here,
increasing mid-level flow atop low-level southerlies will provide
sufficient shear for a few severe/rotating storms, likely
accompanied by an all-hazards severe risk. Farther south along the
advancing front, storms should remain much more isolated, but would
likely pose local severe risk given a thermodynamic and kinematic
environment that would support organized/rotating storms.
Overnight, an increasing southerly low-level jet -- and associated
warm advection across the Dakotas atop the warm front -- should
sustain late-period storms, and at least some severe risk.
..Goss.. 04/25/2025
$$
029
ACUS48 KWNS 250856
SWOD48
SPC AC 250854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Mon - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest...
A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from
the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a
surface low will deepen and move from the northern Plains to the
northern Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly lower tropospheric flow
will advect high theta-e air northward across the Midwest and into
parts of the Upper Midwest. Broken to scattered cloudcover will
support surface heating and strong destabilization across the warm
sector from southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin to the
southern Plains. Isolated to scattered supercells are likely along
the dryline which will extend from the southern Plains and into
Kansas.
The greatest focus for severe weather on Monday will be from eastern
Kansas into northern Missouri, much of Iowa and into southern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Moderate to strong instability,
strong shear, and increasing forcing for ascent supports the
potential for numerous rounds of severe thunderstorms. The wind
profile supports supercells capable of all severe weather hazards
including the potential for strong tornadoes.
...Day 5/Tue - Southern Plains to parts of the Northeast...
The surface low associated with the Day 4 threat will continue
northeast and bring its associated cold front eastward across the
Midwest and Great Lakes through the day Tuesday. Moderate to strong
instability is forecast south of this front from northern New York
to the Ohio Valley. Much of the frontal zone should have sufficient
shear to support multiple storm clusters and the potential for a few
supercells.
Day 6/Wed-Day8/Fri - Portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the
Southeast...
A weaker mid-level shortwave trough is consistently depicted by
extended range guidance by the middle of next week across the
southern Plains. However, significant uncertainty remains about the
strength of this trough and location of any frontal zones. In
addition, convection across the southern Plains each day of the
extended range forecast could significantly impact destabilization
by Day 6-8. Therefore, confidence is not high enough to add
probabilities at this time, but they may eventually be needed
somewhere across the Southeast/Mid Mississippi Valley.
..Bentley.. 04/25/2025
