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975 ABPZ20 KNHC 182323 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sun May 18 2025 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Kelly
718 AXPZ20 KNHC 182205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun May 18 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2110 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends westward from central Costa Rica near 09N85W to 10N103W to 09N114W to 07N123W. The ITCZ continues west-southwestward to 05N131W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03N to 15N E of 97W, and from 05N to 12N between 101W and 122W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1032 mb high near 35N140W to the Revillagigedo Islands. This feature is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds and seas to 7 ft across the offshore waters of Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro. Recent satellite scatterometer data show fresh to strong NW winds from Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas where moderate seas reach 7 ft. A surface trough extending southward from southern Arizona is causing gentle to moderate NW winds and seas to 4 ft along the Gulf of California, being the highest seas near the entrance of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft in mixed SW and NW swell prevail across the southern Mexico offshore waters. For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to affect the Baja California offshore waters through Fri night while a surface trough will prevail along the Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between these features will maintain mainly moderate to fresh NW winds across the Baja Peninsula offshores through Tue. Afterward, the high pressure slightly weaken and shift northward, thus resulting in gentle to moderate NW winds the remainder of the week. Northwest swell is forecast to enter the Baja California Norte offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia tonight and subside Mon evening. Peak seas with this swell will be 7 to 9 ft, which will subside by Thu evening. Mostly gentle winds and slight to moderate seas, primarily in SW swell are expected elsewhere through Fri night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Abundant moisture is coupling with convergent surface winds to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms across the offshore waters of Panama, Costa Rica and Colombia. Otherwise, mostly light to gentle winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft in SW swell are ongoing across the Central America offshore waters. For the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate SE to S winds with 3 to 7 ft seas in SW swell are present. For the forecast, periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia through at least mid-week. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are forecast across the Central America offshore waters through Fri night, except for pulsing moderate to fresh NE to E winds pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo Thu through Fri night. For waters between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate S winds along with moderate seas in SW swell will prevail, except seas becoming rough to 8 ft S of the Galapagos Islands Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA.... A broad surface ridge extends southward to near 12N from a 1032 mb high near 35N140W. Moderate to locally fresh N to ENE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in northerly swell are north of 20N and west of 120W. A tighter pressure gradient between the high and the ITCZ is generating mainly fresh NE to E winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft S of 20N and west of 130W. East of 130W, gentle to locally moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are seen from the monsoon trough northward. South of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, gentle to moderate SE to SW winds with seas at 6 to 7 ft prevail west of 90W. For the forecast, a slight strengthening of the high will cause NNE to ENE winds north of 20N and west of 122W to become fresh to locally strong, and seas building to 7 to 10 ft from Mon afternoon through Tue. Winds and seas from the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W should gradually subside starting Tue night and Wed. South of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, a new SW swell is going to cause seas to build slightly near midweek. $$ Ramos