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 40%-60% Chance  
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 40%-60% Chance  
 70% or Greater Chance  

Sustained
Wind > 110 mph
Sustained
Wind 73 -110 mph
Sustained
Wind 39-73 mph
Sustained
Wind < 39 mph
Sustained
Wind > 73 mph
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Storm Name
Start Date
(UTC)
End Date
(UTC)
Min Pressure
mb (inches)
Max Winds
mph
  Tropical Storm Aletta 1500 UTC Thu Jul 4 2024 0300 UTC Sat Jul 6 2024 1005
(29.68)
40
  Tropical Storm Bud (Active) 2100 UTC Wed Jul 24 2024 Storm Currently in Progress 1007
(29.74)
40

067
ABPZ20 KNHC 242317
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Bud, located several hundred miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located more than one thousand miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is associated with
some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Development of
this system appears unlikely over the next several days while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Bud are issued under WMO header
WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Bud are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart



	

		
461
AXPZ20 KNHC 250241
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jul 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Bud is centered near 17.5N 113.3W at 25/0300 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. Seas are peaking near 12 ft. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is noted within 90 nm west semicircle of the
low. The system is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression
Thursday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Bud
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 101W/102W north of 05N,
moving west at 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 121W/122W from 07N to 16N,
moving W at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 15N108W. It resumes
from 16N117W to 11N125W. The ITCZ continues from 11N125W to
09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N
between 85W and 109W, and from 11N to 16N between 117W and 124W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features for information on Tropical Storm
Bud.

Aside from Bud, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail. Seas
are in the 5-7 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 2-4
ft in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, aside from TS Bud, gentle to moderate breezes
and slight to moderate seas will persist.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds are over and downstream the Gulf of
papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of
the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in S swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas
will persist through the remainder of the week into the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features for information on Tropical Storm
Bud.

Aside from TS Bud, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-8 ft
prevail.

For the forecast, Bud will move to 17.8N 114.9W Thu morning,
weaken to a tropical depression near 17.9N 116.7W Thu evening,
become a remnant low and move to 17.8N 118.2W Fri morning, 17.3N
119.1W Fri evening, 16.6N 120.0W Sat morning, and dissipate Sat
evening. Seas to 8 ft in S long-period swell will gradually decay
into late week. Along and S of the monsoon trough, SW winds
combined with this long-period southerly swell will combine to
support seas of 8 to 9 ft. Northerly swell over the waters north
of 28N, with seas greater than 8 ft, will continue through Thu.

$$
AL