975
ABPZ20 KNHC 182323
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun May 18 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

		
718
AXPZ20 KNHC 182205
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun May 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2110 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends westward from central Costa Rica near
09N85W to 10N103W to 09N114W to 07N123W. The ITCZ continues
west-southwestward to 05N131W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 03N to 15N E of 97W, and
from 05N to 12N between 101W and 122W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1032 mb high
near 35N140W to the Revillagigedo Islands. This feature is
supporting moderate to fresh NW winds and seas to 7 ft across
the offshore waters of Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro.
Recent satellite scatterometer data show fresh to strong NW winds
from Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas where moderate seas reach
7 ft. A surface trough extending southward from southern
Arizona is causing gentle to moderate NW winds and seas to 4 ft
along the Gulf of California, being the highest seas near the
entrance of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 5 to 6
ft in mixed SW and NW swell prevail across the southern Mexico
offshore waters.

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to affect the
Baja California offshore waters through Fri night while a surface
trough will prevail along the Gulf of California. The pressure
gradient between these features will maintain mainly moderate to
fresh NW winds across the Baja Peninsula offshores through Tue.
Afterward, the high pressure slightly weaken and shift northward,
thus resulting in gentle to moderate NW winds the remainder of
the week. Northwest swell is forecast to enter the Baja
California Norte offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia tonight and
subside Mon evening. Peak seas with this swell will be 7 to 9
ft, which will subside by Thu evening. Mostly gentle winds and
slight to moderate seas, primarily in SW swell are expected
elsewhere through Fri night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Abundant moisture is coupling with convergent surface winds to
trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms across the offshore
waters of Panama, Costa Rica and Colombia. Otherwise, mostly
light to gentle winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft in SW swell are
ongoing across the Central America offshore waters. For the
waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, gentle to
moderate SE to S winds with 3 to 7 ft seas in SW swell are
present.

For the forecast, periods of showers and thunderstorms will
continue across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and
Colombia through at least mid-week. Otherwise, light to gentle
winds are forecast across the Central America offshore waters
through Fri night, except for pulsing moderate to fresh NE to E
winds pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo Thu through Fri night. For
waters between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands,
gentle to moderate S winds along with moderate seas in SW swell
will prevail, except seas becoming rough to 8 ft S of the
Galapagos Islands Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A broad surface ridge extends southward to near 12N from a 1032
mb high near 35N140W. Moderate to locally fresh N to ENE winds
and 5 to 7 ft seas in northerly swell are north of 20N and west
of 120W. A tighter pressure gradient between the high and the
ITCZ is generating mainly fresh NE to E winds and seas of 7 to 9
ft S of 20N and west of 130W. East of 130W, gentle to locally
moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are seen from the monsoon
trough northward. South of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, gentle to
moderate SE to SW winds with seas at 6 to 7 ft prevail west of
90W.

For the forecast, a slight strengthening of the high will cause
NNE to ENE winds north of 20N and west of 122W to become fresh to
locally strong, and seas building to 7 to 10 ft from Mon
afternoon through Tue. Winds and seas from the ITCZ to 20N and
west of 120W should gradually subside starting Tue night and Wed.
South of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, a new SW swell is going to
cause seas to build slightly near midweek.

$$
Ramos