Traverse City, MI
Traverse City, MI Forecast Discussion
148
FXUS63 KAPX 300902
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
502 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal temperatures, times of light showers, clouds and
occasionally brisk/breezy winds will persist through Saturday
- High confidence in freezing temperatures overnight for inland
locations, and frost conditions for coastal areas tonight into
early Friday morning and Friday night into early Saturday
morning
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Current water vapor satellite depicts a closed upper low with
continental moisture wrapped up within it spinning over Lk Superior.
Under this, light northwest winds are continuing to slowly increase
surface pressure over northern MI. Surface observations show
temperatures in the low to mid 30s over eastern upper, where skies
have been a little more clear and slightly drier air exists (Tds in
the high 20s). Mostly cloudy skies and slightly higher moisture in
the near surface air has kept temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s
south of the bridge so far this morning. Although skies will remain
somewhat cloudy this morning, temperatures should continue to fall
to near freezing for interior spots and the mid 30s elsewhere just
before sunrise.
As the upper closed low continues to spin over Lk Superior and
Ontario CAN today, existing elevated moisture and steep sfc to 3km
lapse rates lead to an unstable environment where showery activity
will remain possible over much of northern MI through tonight. Times
of light rain will be seen, with a stronger shower or two possibly
producing some graupel. This evening, an upper shortwave extending
from the closed low will rotated southward over the northern plains.
Ahead of it, an elevated boundary (around 850mb) will help to
continue the showery activity into the night. Surface temperatuers
will be cold enough for snow showers to remain snow near the
surface, meaning isolated snow showers could result in a dusting of
snow in some spots.
With this surge secondary surge overnight, there is high confidence
that interior temperatures will cool to freezing or slightly below.
Temperatures near the coast will likely dip into the mid 30s,
introducing frost concerns.
The upper closed low will continue to influence the region Friday,
with a renewed chance of showers under the colder temperatures aloft
but diurnal warming at the surface (thanks to our stronger sun
angles). Snow showers will slowly turn to rain showers Friday
morning, with precipitation remaining light. Afternoon temperatuers
will likely stay in the 40s for most spots.
Saturday, the upper closed low exits to the northeast as surface
high pressure continues to build in from the west. This colder
surface airmass will keep temperatures cool, with no precipitation
chances and light winds.
The next system will approach Sunday, returning southwest winds and
warmer temperatures. Widespread rain chances will eventually move
through, either Sunday or Monday. Decent spread in guidance exists
for what happens after this, if another closed upper level low
returns to the Great Lakes region or if it remains farther north in
CAN. These would result in different outcomes, one much colder than
the other.. however both solutions do indicate that the warming
period Sunday through early next week will likely be brief, with
below normal temperatures returning next week. The question of how
cold and if there will be precipitation remains.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 502 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Any lingering MVFR cigs expected to rise to VFR this morning as low
level mixing increases. VFR conditions expected into this afternoon
and evening under just some higher based cumulus and passing higher
level clouds. May see some MVFR cigs develop by Friday morning...
especially at KCIU and KAPN. Likely to see a few non-vis restricting
showers at time today into tonight. Northwest winds will continue,
at times a touch gusty this afternoon.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ016>018-
021>023-027>029-032>034-099.
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ024-026-030-
035.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...MSB
FXUS63 KAPX 300902
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
502 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal temperatures, times of light showers, clouds and
occasionally brisk/breezy winds will persist through Saturday
- High confidence in freezing temperatures overnight for inland
locations, and frost conditions for coastal areas tonight into
early Friday morning and Friday night into early Saturday
morning
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Current water vapor satellite depicts a closed upper low with
continental moisture wrapped up within it spinning over Lk Superior.
Under this, light northwest winds are continuing to slowly increase
surface pressure over northern MI. Surface observations show
temperatures in the low to mid 30s over eastern upper, where skies
have been a little more clear and slightly drier air exists (Tds in
the high 20s). Mostly cloudy skies and slightly higher moisture in
the near surface air has kept temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s
south of the bridge so far this morning. Although skies will remain
somewhat cloudy this morning, temperatures should continue to fall
to near freezing for interior spots and the mid 30s elsewhere just
before sunrise.
As the upper closed low continues to spin over Lk Superior and
Ontario CAN today, existing elevated moisture and steep sfc to 3km
lapse rates lead to an unstable environment where showery activity
will remain possible over much of northern MI through tonight. Times
of light rain will be seen, with a stronger shower or two possibly
producing some graupel. This evening, an upper shortwave extending
from the closed low will rotated southward over the northern plains.
Ahead of it, an elevated boundary (around 850mb) will help to
continue the showery activity into the night. Surface temperatuers
will be cold enough for snow showers to remain snow near the
surface, meaning isolated snow showers could result in a dusting of
snow in some spots.
With this surge secondary surge overnight, there is high confidence
that interior temperatures will cool to freezing or slightly below.
Temperatures near the coast will likely dip into the mid 30s,
introducing frost concerns.
The upper closed low will continue to influence the region Friday,
with a renewed chance of showers under the colder temperatures aloft
but diurnal warming at the surface (thanks to our stronger sun
angles). Snow showers will slowly turn to rain showers Friday
morning, with precipitation remaining light. Afternoon temperatuers
will likely stay in the 40s for most spots.
Saturday, the upper closed low exits to the northeast as surface
high pressure continues to build in from the west. This colder
surface airmass will keep temperatures cool, with no precipitation
chances and light winds.
The next system will approach Sunday, returning southwest winds and
warmer temperatures. Widespread rain chances will eventually move
through, either Sunday or Monday. Decent spread in guidance exists
for what happens after this, if another closed upper level low
returns to the Great Lakes region or if it remains farther north in
CAN. These would result in different outcomes, one much colder than
the other.. however both solutions do indicate that the warming
period Sunday through early next week will likely be brief, with
below normal temperatures returning next week. The question of how
cold and if there will be precipitation remains.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 502 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Any lingering MVFR cigs expected to rise to VFR this morning as low
level mixing increases. VFR conditions expected into this afternoon
and evening under just some higher based cumulus and passing higher
level clouds. May see some MVFR cigs develop by Friday morning...
especially at KCIU and KAPN. Likely to see a few non-vis restricting
showers at time today into tonight. Northwest winds will continue,
at times a touch gusty this afternoon.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ016>018-
021>023-027>029-032>034-099.
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ024-026-030-
035.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...MSB