277
AXNT20 KNHC 170341
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Apr 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W to 06N20W.
The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N49W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 30 nm on either side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1019 mb high near
28N85W to south of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh southeast
winds along with seas of 3 to 5 ft are present in the eastern Bay
of Campeche and extending northward to near 23N. Latest
scatterometer satellite data indicates gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds with seas of 2 to 4 ft over the rest of the
basin.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place and slowly
weaken through Sat, maintaining a weak pressure gradient across
the basin. The pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate E
to SE winds across most of the basin through Sat. The exception
will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a daily trough will
result in a locally tighter pressure gradient to support a pulsing
of fresh to strong winds during the evenings. Fresh to strong N
to NE winds and building seas will follow a cold front moving
across the northern Gulf Sat night through the early part of the
week. The front will stall from the Florida Straits to south Texas
by late Mon then dissipate through Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid to upper-level low dropping southward over the north-
central Dominican Republic is helping to sustain scattered
showers and thunderstorms near the Dominican Republic and over
sections of the northeastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and
vicinity waters. A surface trough extends from the western
Atlantic to Hispaniola. Otherwise, a modest trade-wind regime is
present across most of the basin. Moderate to fresh east-
northeast to east-southeast winds along with seas of 4 to 6 ft are
in the lee of Cuba, near the Windward Passage and near the ABC
Islands. Latest scatterometer satellite data shows gentle to
moderate east-southeast winds elsewhere across the basin. Seas
are 2 to 4 ft with these winds.

For the forecast, the surface trough will move slowly westward
and weaken through Sat. This feature will disrupt the typical
weather pattern across the basin with a weaker than usual pressure
gradient. This weaker pressure gradient will result in fresh
trade winds and moderate seas off the coast of Colombia overnight,
then mainly gentle to moderate winds through the remainder of the
forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds are expected over the
remainder of the forecast area. Seas across the basin will slowly
subside as the winds diminish. Fresh NE winds may develop early
next week across the Windward Passage associated with a late-
season cold front moving into Cuba.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper-level trough curves southwestward from southeast of
Bermuda to 24N60W, to a mid to upper-level low over the north-
central Dominican Republic, and southwestward from there to the
southwest Caribbean. A surface trough extends from 29N65W to
20N71W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen
from 20N to 22N between 68W and 70W. To the E, a 1024 mb high
center is analyzed north of the area at 33N48W. High pressure
continues to dominate the wind flow pattern across the basin,
generally north of about 18N and east of the Lesser Antilles and
also north of 21N and west of 61W. The related gradient is
providing for light to gentle winds north of 26N between 35W and
the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over these
waters. Farther south from 20N to 26N and between 35W and the
Bahamas, gentle to moderate northeast to east winds are present
along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh northeast to east
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in an east swell prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will move little
through Fri, then dissipate through Sat. High pressure will build
into the area from the east following the trough. A cold front is
forecast to move off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night.
Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas in the wake
of the front as it reaches from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by
late Mon, and from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Tue.

$$
ERA