633
ABNT20 KNHC 171150
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 350 miles east of Bermuda have changed little in
organization during the past several hours. Environmental
conditions could support gradual development of the system during
the next day or two, and a tropical depression could form during
that time. The system is forecast to move slowly today, and then
possibly turn southward on Friday over the subtropical Atlantic. By
Sunday, environmental conditions are forecast to become less
favorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

400
AXNT20 KNHC 171053
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Sep 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 30W, from 03N to 17N, moving westward
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to
16N between 26W and 38W.

A tropical is in the E Caribbean with axis near 67W, south of
22N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 14N to 24N between 56W and 70W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W to 09N37W. The
ITCZ extends from 09N37W to 09N56W. Aside from convection noted
in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate convection
is noted from 05N to 11N between 10W and 21W, and from 06N to 11N
between 44W and 54W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The gradient related to high pressure over the SE U.S. that
stretches a ridge SW to the Gulf is sustaining fresh NE to E winds
and moderate seas over the NE and north-central Gulf. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds, and slight seas, are noted.

For the forecast, fresh winds and moderate seas will spread
westward to the NW Gulf waters today before improving Fri into
Sat. A broad upper-level low will move towards Florida from the
western Atlantic today through Fri. This feature will lead to
increasing shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern and
central Gulf waters.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between ridging north of the area along
with lower pressure over Colombia-Venezuela is supporting fresh to
near-gale trades over the S central Caribbean. Moderate to rough
seas are over these waters. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate
seas, are elsewhere east of 80W. W of 80W, gentle to moderate
winds, and slight to moderate seas, prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in NW
Colombia will generally maintain fresh to locally near gale-force
trades along with moderate to locally rough seas over most of the
central Caribbean through the end of the week. Otherwise, moderate
to fresh trades and moderate seas will continue across the
eastern Caribbean through the weekend while winds diminish and
seas subside elsewhere as the pressures gradient relaxes. A
tropical wave currently moving across the Mona Passage will reach
the western Caribbean over the weekend. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the passage of the wave.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from near Bermuda west-southwestward to
the N Bahamas. Fresh NE winds and moderate seas prevail N of the
front. Light to gentle winds, and slight seas, are SE of the front
N of 22N and W of 55W. Fresh NE winds, and moderate seas, are
noted near the Canary Islands, extending SW to near 38W.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a tight pressure gradient between
high pressure over the southeastern U.S. and the stationary front
will maintain mostly fresh northeast winds and moderate seas W of
the front through today. Conditions will improve late today into
Fri as high pressure becomes the dominant feature across the basin
into the weekend. A broad upper-level low located just east of
the northern Bahamas in combination with a very moist and unstable
environment will continue to support scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms over most of the forecast waters the
next few days as it moves in a west to northwest direction.

$$
Ramos