Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...Synopsis...
Expanding high pressure over the Southeast and central U.S will
contribute to widespread above normal temperatures and dry
conditions today. Meanwhile, an upper-level low will remain centered
over northern California/southern Oregon, sustaining strong
southwesterly flow over the Great Basin.
...Southern Plains...
Strong surface heating and deep vertical mixing will contribute to
15-25% RH values and sustained southerly winds of 10-15 mph this
afternoon. These meteorological conditions will overlap an
exceptionally dry and receptive fuelscape in southwestern Oklahoma
and along the Red River Valley, supporting the introduction of
Elevated highlights.
...Great Basin...
South-southwesterly sustained surface winds of around 15 mph are
expected to evolve under an expanding 50 kt mid-level jet this
afternoon. A dry and well mixed boundary layer will promote RH
values of around 15% across central/northern NV and southern ID.
Consecutive days of dry and windy conditions have led to
increasingly more receptive fuels across the region, maintaining an
Elevated fire weather risk.
...Central Idaho and Northeastern Oregon...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across
northern California, Oregon, and the Northern Rockies as the
upper-level low begins to pivot northeastward out of northern CA.
The primary driver of limited rainfall will be fast
north-northeastward storm motions of 30-40 mph, particularly on the
nose of the mid-level jet across the central ID mountains; however,
marginal fuels, and subsequent showers/thunderstorms on Day 2/Friday
and Day 3/Saturday as the low transitions into the Northern Rockies
should reduce holdover ignition concerns.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/17/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
$$
227
FNUS22 KWNS 170551
FWDDY2
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis...
As an upper low slowly meanders into the Northern Rockies on Day
2/Friday, high pressure in the Southeast will retrograde westward
and center over the ArkLaTex region. As a result, above normal
temperatures will continue for much of the southern Plains and Deep
South where rainfall neglected fuels have become increasingly
receptive.
...Southern Plains...
A surface trough ahead of an advancing cold front across the central
Plains will promote slightly higher south-southwest winds to
portions of the southern Plains on Day 2/Friday. While guidance
depicts RH values to be at or above 25-30%, observed values will
likely be much lower as a result of an increasing vapor pressure
deficit (90th percentile or greater for the last 15-30 days) amid an
exhibited decrease in evapotranspiration due to long term drought
and stressed fuels. Sustained wind speeds of 10-15 mph are expected
atop very dry and recently receptive fuels, necessitating an
introduction of Elevated highlights across southwestern Oklahoma and
northern Texas.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/17/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
$$
595
FNUS28 KWNS 162148
FWDD38
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 241200Z
...Synopsis...
A weakening upper-level low will slowly progress eastward into the
central High Plains by early next week bringing precipitation to
much of the northern and central Rockies into the CO River Basin. A
surface trough develops in the Central Plains Days
3-4/Friday-Saturday enhancing south-southwest winds and fire weather
concerns across portions of the Southern Plains. The polar jet
shifts into Canada with weaker flow aloft emerging across CONUS Day
5-8/Sunday-Wednesday time frame, ushering in dry conditions and
relatively light winds across the West. A cold front and associated
precipitation is forecast to gradually push southward into the
Southern Plains and southeastern U.S. bringing at least some relief
to a still very dry and drought stressed fuelscape.
...Southern Plains...
A surface trough ahead of an advancing cold front across the central
Plains will promote slightly higher south-southwest winds to
portions of the Southern Plains on Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday.
Sustained wind speeds of 10-15 mph are forecast during the late
morning and afternoon hours. Although relative humidity reductions
are likely to remain above 20%, very dry fuels (ERCs in the 90-95th
percentile), long term drought amid above normal temperatures and
recent problematic wildfire activity calls for introduction of 40%
critical probabilities across southwestern OK and portions of
northern/northwestern TX on both Friday and Saturday. Conditions are
expected to gradually improve beginning Day 5/Sunday as the cold
front and associated cooler temperatures and rainfall begin to move
into the Southern Plains.
..Williams.. 09/16/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
