Severe Center
Severe Weather Outlook
Map Options
Map Legend
15%
30%
Thunderstorms
1: Marginal
2: Slight
3: Enhanced
4: Moderate
5: High
2%
5%
10%
15%
30%
45%
60%
Sig
5%
15%
30%
45%
60%
Sig
5%
15%
30%
45%
60%
Sig
Additional Map Layers
Zoom To Location
561
ACUS01 KWNS 170101
SWODY1
SPC AC 170059
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...PARTS OF
THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO MID SOUTH...AND THE PECOS VALLEY/RIO GRANDE
VALLEY VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered areas of scattered strong to severe thunderstorm
development are expected to generally wane through mid to late
evening.
...01Z Update...
...Parts of Upstate New York into western New England...
Forcing for ascent accompanying a weak frontal wave is maintaining
an area of scattered stronger storms now overspreading areas to the
northwest of Albany NY, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear.
Instability sampled in the evening sounding from Albany is rather
weak, but profiles might still be supportive of at least some risk
for localized severe wind and hail into mid/late evening as forcing
overspreads parts of southern Vermont, New Hampshire and adjacent
Maine.
...Ozark Plateau into Mid South...
The primary east-southeastward propagating organized storm cluster
appears to be in the process of weakening, as southeasterly near
surface updraft inflow across middle Tennessee becomes less
unstable. However, renewed thunderstorm development persists along
and to the cool side of the trailing convective outflow across the
Missouri Bootheel vicinity, with additional attempts along a diffuse
zone of differential surface heating extending westward across
northern Arkansas. This is occurring beneath warming and more
strongly capping lower/mid-tropospheric air, but given inflow of
potentially sizable CAPE, in the presence of moderate westerly
shear, there remains at least some risk for supercell development
capable of producing large hail this evening.
...West Texas...
Potential for sustained severe thunderstorm development appears low
along the retreating dryline across parts of northwest Texas into
the South Plains overnight.
..Kerr.. 04/17/2026
$$
ACUS01 KWNS 170101
SWODY1
SPC AC 170059
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...PARTS OF
THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO MID SOUTH...AND THE PECOS VALLEY/RIO GRANDE
VALLEY VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered areas of scattered strong to severe thunderstorm
development are expected to generally wane through mid to late
evening.
...01Z Update...
...Parts of Upstate New York into western New England...
Forcing for ascent accompanying a weak frontal wave is maintaining
an area of scattered stronger storms now overspreading areas to the
northwest of Albany NY, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear.
Instability sampled in the evening sounding from Albany is rather
weak, but profiles might still be supportive of at least some risk
for localized severe wind and hail into mid/late evening as forcing
overspreads parts of southern Vermont, New Hampshire and adjacent
Maine.
...Ozark Plateau into Mid South...
The primary east-southeastward propagating organized storm cluster
appears to be in the process of weakening, as southeasterly near
surface updraft inflow across middle Tennessee becomes less
unstable. However, renewed thunderstorm development persists along
and to the cool side of the trailing convective outflow across the
Missouri Bootheel vicinity, with additional attempts along a diffuse
zone of differential surface heating extending westward across
northern Arkansas. This is occurring beneath warming and more
strongly capping lower/mid-tropospheric air, but given inflow of
potentially sizable CAPE, in the presence of moderate westerly
shear, there remains at least some risk for supercell development
capable of producing large hail this evening.
...West Texas...
Potential for sustained severe thunderstorm development appears low
along the retreating dryline across parts of northwest Texas into
the South Plains overnight.
..Kerr.. 04/17/2026
$$
147
ACUS02 KWNS 161743
SWODY2
SPC AC 161741
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
WISCONSIN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the
southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity
Friday into Friday night. Tornadoes, possibly strong, very large
hail, and swaths of damaging winds will be possible.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move into the central and northern Plains
during the day, strengthening through Friday night as it moves into
upper MS Valley. Continuous height falls will occur across the
entire central to northern Plains region, where mid and upper level
temperatures will already be relatively cool.
During the afternoon, low pressure will develop across IA and WI,
with a cold front extending southwestward into southern KS and
northwest OK. A warm front will also lift across IA and into WI
during the day, with an influx of mid 60s F dewpoints. Given the
cool temperatures aloft, this will create a highly unstable air mass
ahead of the cold front. This front will accelerate during the
evening as storms become numerous, and should extend roughly from
Lower MI into central TX by 12Z Saturday.
The combination of steep lapse rates aloft, ample shear, and ample
moisture will support corridors of significant severe storms,
including all modes of severe.
...From IA into WI and northwest IL...
Strong tornado potential is evident Friday afternoon into early
evening, especially from IA into southern WI and northwest IL. While
convective evolution is a bit uncertain, there is good agreement in
a very unstable environment with midlevel lapse rates to 8.5 C/km,
along with 200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH ahead of the surface low and
near the warm front. While an eventual squall line may take shape
late in the day, scattered supercells appear likely after about 19Z
ahead of the developing low and as dewpoints rise rapidly. As such,
conditional tornado probabilities have been increased further to
indicate stronger tornado potential.
Cells should eventually consolidate as the front pushed east, with
damaging bowing structures expected, possibly as far east as Lake
MI. The severe risk is expected to persist as far east as IN and
lower MI late evening/overnight as the southerly low-level jet
brings moisture northward. Damaging winds appear possible.
...OK/KS/MO...
A volatile environment will develop near and ahead of the cold front
Friday afternoon, with significant severe hail, wind, and several
tornadoes expected. An impressive combination of deep-layer
shear/wind fields and steep lapse rates aloft will exist, and while
the forcing mechanism will be linear, shear vector orientation and
likely rightward-propagation of the stronger supercells will support
tornadoes and very large damaging hail initially. All this activity
is expected to merge into a linear MCS, with corridors of
destructive winds and continued large hail risk expected over much
of MO and into northern OK through the evening.
..Jewell.. 04/16/2026
$$
ACUS02 KWNS 161743
SWODY2
SPC AC 161741
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
WISCONSIN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the
southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity
Friday into Friday night. Tornadoes, possibly strong, very large
hail, and swaths of damaging winds will be possible.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move into the central and northern Plains
during the day, strengthening through Friday night as it moves into
upper MS Valley. Continuous height falls will occur across the
entire central to northern Plains region, where mid and upper level
temperatures will already be relatively cool.
During the afternoon, low pressure will develop across IA and WI,
with a cold front extending southwestward into southern KS and
northwest OK. A warm front will also lift across IA and into WI
during the day, with an influx of mid 60s F dewpoints. Given the
cool temperatures aloft, this will create a highly unstable air mass
ahead of the cold front. This front will accelerate during the
evening as storms become numerous, and should extend roughly from
Lower MI into central TX by 12Z Saturday.
The combination of steep lapse rates aloft, ample shear, and ample
moisture will support corridors of significant severe storms,
including all modes of severe.
...From IA into WI and northwest IL...
Strong tornado potential is evident Friday afternoon into early
evening, especially from IA into southern WI and northwest IL. While
convective evolution is a bit uncertain, there is good agreement in
a very unstable environment with midlevel lapse rates to 8.5 C/km,
along with 200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH ahead of the surface low and
near the warm front. While an eventual squall line may take shape
late in the day, scattered supercells appear likely after about 19Z
ahead of the developing low and as dewpoints rise rapidly. As such,
conditional tornado probabilities have been increased further to
indicate stronger tornado potential.
Cells should eventually consolidate as the front pushed east, with
damaging bowing structures expected, possibly as far east as Lake
MI. The severe risk is expected to persist as far east as IN and
lower MI late evening/overnight as the southerly low-level jet
brings moisture northward. Damaging winds appear possible.
...OK/KS/MO...
A volatile environment will develop near and ahead of the cold front
Friday afternoon, with significant severe hail, wind, and several
tornadoes expected. An impressive combination of deep-layer
shear/wind fields and steep lapse rates aloft will exist, and while
the forcing mechanism will be linear, shear vector orientation and
likely rightward-propagation of the stronger supercells will support
tornadoes and very large damaging hail initially. All this activity
is expected to merge into a linear MCS, with corridors of
destructive winds and continued large hail risk expected over much
of MO and into northern OK through the evening.
..Jewell.. 04/16/2026
$$
803
ACUS03 KWNS 161927
SWODY3
SPC AC 161926
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail will be possible on Saturday from the upper Ohio Valley.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move toward the upper Great Lakes and OH Valley
on Saturday, with a cold front moving quickly east and extending
from western NY/PA into KY/TN by 00Z. A narrow plume of upper 50s F
to near 60 F dewpoints will exist and contribute to up to 1000 J/kg
MUCAPE.
Storms will likely be ongoing early in the day along the front as it
moves out of IN and into western OH/KY, and 40-50 kt southwest winds
at 850 mb may support damaging gusts potential. Heating ahead of the
front from OH/PA southward into WV/KY/TN may support new
development, although lapse rates aloft over southern areas will be
poor. Still, favorable deep-layer mean wind speeds and sufficient
shear may support isolated severe gusts or marginal hail, especially
into OH/western PA. Further, low-level shear will be strongest over
northern areas, with some supercell potential.
..Jewell.. 04/16/2026
$$
ACUS03 KWNS 161927
SWODY3
SPC AC 161926
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail will be possible on Saturday from the upper Ohio Valley.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move toward the upper Great Lakes and OH Valley
on Saturday, with a cold front moving quickly east and extending
from western NY/PA into KY/TN by 00Z. A narrow plume of upper 50s F
to near 60 F dewpoints will exist and contribute to up to 1000 J/kg
MUCAPE.
Storms will likely be ongoing early in the day along the front as it
moves out of IN and into western OH/KY, and 40-50 kt southwest winds
at 850 mb may support damaging gusts potential. Heating ahead of the
front from OH/PA southward into WV/KY/TN may support new
development, although lapse rates aloft over southern areas will be
poor. Still, favorable deep-layer mean wind speeds and sufficient
shear may support isolated severe gusts or marginal hail, especially
into OH/western PA. Further, low-level shear will be strongest over
northern areas, with some supercell potential.
..Jewell.. 04/16/2026
$$
892
ACUS48 KWNS 160840
SWOD48
SPC AC 160838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low through at least Day
6/Tuesday. In the wake of a cold front moving offshore the Atlantic
coast and into the Gulf, strong surface high pressure will build
east of the Rockies and persist across parts of the South and East
through Day 6/Tuesday. As a result, a dry and stable boundary layer
will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.
By the middle of the week, and upper trough is forecast to
overspread the western U.S. As this occurs, lee surface troughing
will allow for increasing southerly winds over the Plains, and Gulf
moisture will begin to return northward Days 7-8/Wed-Thu. It remains
uncertain if the upper trough will begin to eject eastward toward
the Plains at the end of the period. If this occurs, some severe
potential may develop across the Plains, though predictability is
low.
..Leitman.. 04/16/2026
ACUS48 KWNS 160840
SWOD48
SPC AC 160838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low through at least Day
6/Tuesday. In the wake of a cold front moving offshore the Atlantic
coast and into the Gulf, strong surface high pressure will build
east of the Rockies and persist across parts of the South and East
through Day 6/Tuesday. As a result, a dry and stable boundary layer
will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.
By the middle of the week, and upper trough is forecast to
overspread the western U.S. As this occurs, lee surface troughing
will allow for increasing southerly winds over the Plains, and Gulf
moisture will begin to return northward Days 7-8/Wed-Thu. It remains
uncertain if the upper trough will begin to eject eastward toward
the Plains at the end of the period. If this occurs, some severe
potential may develop across the Plains, though predictability is
low.
..Leitman.. 04/16/2026