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FOUS11 KWBC 161951
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Valid 00Z Fri Apr 17 2026 - 00Z Mon Apr 20 2026


...North and Central Rockies through the Northern Plains...
Day 1...

Mid-level trough axis over the northern Great Basin will dig
southeast to CO through Friday while a separate low over the
northern MT border will continue to track east to Winnipeg. Broad
ascent will persist ahead of these troughs which will enhance an
already tight baroclinic zone over the Dakotas tonight. Low level
moisture will continue to stream up the Plains tonight while
elevated Pacific moisture streams over the Rockies ahead of the
progressive cold front.

Some snow squalls/convective bands will continue to be possible
over UT/WY into this evening with the overall focus for snow on
terrain, shifting over CO through Friday.

Day 1 snow probs for >6" after 00Z are 40-60% in west-central MT
ranges, the highest areas around Yellowstone, around 70% on the
length of the Bighorns and 40-60% over southern WY/north and
central CO Ranges.

Jet energy east of the border low lifts over the Northern Plains
tonight which will overlap with the low-level baroclinic zone from
the front. Strong mid- level fgen acting upon a modestly
moistening column will produce a stripe of heavy banding from
western SD through central/eastern ND overnight. Snow becomes more
likely through the night with nocturnal trends and increasing
precip rates. A warm nose will also lead to some mixed precip near
the ND/MN border late tonight/early Friday. Day 1 snow probs for
>4" are now 10-20% over central ND (a bit of a west shift from
overnight). Day 1 ice probs for >0.1" are 10-30% over northeast ND
through northwest MN.


Jackson


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