410
AXNT20 KNHC 021022
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Apr 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast north
of Conakry, then curves southwestward to 02N21W. An ITCZ
continues from 02N21W across 00N29W to northwest of Fortaleza,
Brazil. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
south of the monsoon trough from 00N to 03N between 10W and 16W,
and north of the ITCZ within 200 nm of 04N30W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen farther west from
00N to 03N between 38W and 48W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A robust upper-level trough stretching southward from the Florida
Panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula is triggering scattered showers
and thunderstorms north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Otherwise, a
surface ridge reaching southwestward from the Florida Big Bend
area to near Tampico, Mexico is dominating much of the Gulf.
Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present
northwest and north of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the
Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft
seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate the Gulf
through Sat, supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds with
occasional strong north of the Yucatan Peninsula, in the
northwestern Gulf and Florida Straits. Seas are expected to be
moderate during this period. On Sun, a cold front will enter the
northwestern Gulf and then move southeastward through early next
week, bringing strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Latest ASCAT satellite scatterometer data reveal fresh to strong
NE to E trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft at the south-central basin.
Fresh with locally strong ENE trades are also noted at the lee of
Cuba and Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola. Seas range
from 5 to 7 ft at the lee of Cuba and south of Hispaniola. Seas
in and near the Windward Passage are from 6 to 9 ft. Gentle to
moderate ENE to ESE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in
the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a surface ridge
near 30N and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong NE
winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through Sat night. This
pattern will also support fresh to strong NE to E winds along with
moderate to rough seas in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward
Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep layer trough near 24N59W is generating scattered moderate
convection from 20N to 27N between 50W and 61W. A surface trough
is triggering widely scattered showers near the northwest
Bahamas and southeastern Florida. A broad 1015 mb low pressure is
causing patchy showers southwest of the Canary Islands. Refer to
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional
convection in the Atlantic Basin. A large 1036 mb high at the
north Atlantic is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds and
seas of 9 to 11 ft north of 20N between 45W and the Bahamas,
except gentle to moderate SE winds with 4 to 7 ft seas off
northeastern Florida. Farther east from 20N to 31N between 35W and
45W, moderate NE to E winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft in large NE
swell exist. For remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W,
gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed
moderate swells prevail from 00N to 20N west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure at the north
Atlantic will sustain fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas
mainly south of 28N, including the central and southeast Bahamas
through this weekend. Afterward, the high is going to weaken which
should allow both winds and seas to gradually subside early next
week. On Mon night and Tue, a cold front exiting the southeastern
U.S. will cause building winds and seas off northeastern Florida.

$$

Chan