237
WTPA42 PHFO 150833
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 12
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Fri Aug 14 2026

Lala has shown little change in convective structure over the past
several hours, although there have been some decent bursts of deep
convection over the circulation with cloud tops as cold as -75 C.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured peak 700-mb
flight-level winds of 58 kt in the northeastern quadrant and a
minimum pressure of 991 mb. Given the broad structure of the cyclone
and the overall satellite presentation, the initial intensity is
held at 55 kt.

The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 285/11 kt. A mid-level
high pressure system anchored north of the Hawaiian Islands should
continue to steer Lala generally west-northwestward during the next
several days. Some slowing of the forward motion is possible as the
cyclone approaches the Big Island and begins to interact with the
island`s terrain on Saturday. Short-term deviations in the track are
also possible during this time. After passing near or over the
southern portion of the Big Island, Lala could make a subtle turn
toward the northwest in the lee of the island before resuming a
west-northwestward motion south of the smaller islands through the
remainder of the weekend. The latest NHC track forecast is very
similar to the previous advisory and remains close to the
multi-model consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean.

Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 h
while environmental conditions remain generally favorable. Although
mid-level dry air continues to be a limiting factor, the inner
circulation could become somewhat more compact and organized as Lala
approaches the southern portion of the Big Island. The NHC forecast
therefore continues to show Lala reaching hurricane strength near
the time it reaches the Big Island on Saturday. Interaction with the
island`s terrain should then disrupt the low-level circulation and
result in weakening, with modest vertical wind shear providing
an additional negative influence later in the weekend as Lala
passes south of the smaller islands. Some re-strengthening is
forecast early next week as the cyclone remains over warm sea
surface temperatures. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar
to the previous advisory and remains near the middle of the
guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected on the Big Island of
Hawaii Saturday, with the strongest wind gusts expected in areas of
higher terrain. Preparations should be rushed to completion this
evening before tropical-storm-force winds begin.
Tropical-storm-force winds are also expected across portions of the
smaller islands this weekend.

2. Heavy rainfall will continue across the Big Island and spread
westward across the remainder of the island chain this weekend. This
rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain.

3. Large and dangerous waves are expected across portions of the
Hawaiian Islands this weekend. Surf is already building along
east-facing shores and will increase along exposed southern shores
as Lala passes through the region. This heavy surf may cause
localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 17.8N 153.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 18.2N 154.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 19.3N 156.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 20.2N 159.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 20.7N 162.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 20.8N 164.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 20.9N 166.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 21.4N 170.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 23.0N 172.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs