AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
732 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers are possible across southern portions of the area
through Tuesday, but a larger, stronger system could bring
widespread beneficial rain Tuesday night through Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 121 PM Monday...
An upper-level area of low pressure is exiting the Mississippi
Valley and moving eastward. A wide swath of rain and overcast
clouds can be seen moving across the southern Appalachians.
Across our area, clouds will remain widespread along and south
of I-64 today with some rain expected late today across the far
south. North of I-64 will be partly to mostly sunny skies. Areas
that see more sunshine today will likely reach the middle 60s
for afternoon highs, while areas stuck in the clouds may see
temperatures better than the 50s this afternoon.
This upper-level system will begin to transfer its energy off the
southeast coast Tuesday, but some lingering energy aloft will bring
at least small chances of rain across the area, with the best
chances across the south and the east. Skies will remain overcast
over the south and east, while some breaks of sun can be expected
over northern West Virginia and parts of southeast Ohio.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 121 PM Monday...
A much more potent upper-level low will drop southward from the
northern plains to the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys Tuesday
night into Wednesday, bringing a higher, more prolonged chance of
rain across the entire coverage area. Rain chances will be highest
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday as the core of the upper-level
low tracks through the Appalachians. Early indications from forecast
models suggest that anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of rain will be
possible Tuesday night through Thursday. Much of the state remains
in some kind of drought category, especially the eastern part of the
state. This rain will be largely beneficial to the current drought
situation.
Daytime temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday will remain well
below normal with highs in the upper 40s across the mountains and
the 50s in the lowlands. Average highs for this time of year are
typically the upper 50s in the mountains and the lower to middle 60s
in the lowlands.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 121 PM Monday...
The aforementioned low pressure system will exit into the mid-
Atlantic and northeast Friday with a west-northwest flow across our
area. This will leave us with plenty of clouds and well-below normal
daytime temperatures heading into the weekend. Continued waves of
energy traversing around the base of the upper-level trough will
keep showers in the forecast throughout the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 730 PM Monday...
A low slowly crossing to the south will maintain potential for
light rain across southern WV, northeast KY, southwest VA, and
part of southeast OH through Tuesday. While the northern
terminals should remain VFR throughout the majority of the TAF
period, MVFR will be possible at times in precipitation and low
ceilings to the south. Restrictions are most likely to occur at
BKW and HTS, though CRW could also be briefly impacted.
Breezy conditions are expected to persist along the mountains
for most of the TAF period, amid light to moderate easterly
flow. EKN could, however, experience a period of LLWS if winds
calm at the surface overnight.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/extent of precipitation, low
ceilings, and LLWS may vary from the forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L H L M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions possible in rain Tuesday night through Thursday.
