3 Mile NE Alexandria, VA
3 Mile NE Alexandria, VA Forecast Discussion
506
FXUS61 KLWX 190608
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
208 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Freeze Watch was issued for Monday Night where >50% probability
of low temperatures less than 32F.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- (1) First widespread (albeit light) rain this morning in over
a week.
- (2) Fire weather possible this afternoon and Monday.
- (3) Widespread freeze expected Monday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...First widespread (albeit light) rain this morning in over
a week.
Intermittent SHRA will be the story through this morn and into
the aft east of I-95 as a cold front progresses eastward.
Rainfall amounts as of 2AM are on the higher side of previous
guidance (generally two tenths to a half inch across the NW FA).
Perhaps this is a telling sign as we move through the morning,
as any additional few hundredths or tenths will be beneficial
given ongoing drought. Overall, still expecting a general one
to three tenths with localized spots near a half an inch. As the
cldfrnt moves E, S/SE winds will quickly shift to W/NW today.
Winds could gust 40-45 mph immediately behind the front. High
temps today will be reached early in the day.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Fire weather possible this afternoon and
Monday.
Depending on how much rain falls this morning and how quickly
things dry out with blustery W/NW wind at ~25 mph or so, there
could be a fire weather threat mainly west of the Blue Ridge.
Areas further east have less time drying out and generally
weaker winds.
Following a secondary cold front Mon, a strong upper-level
trof and sw will pivot overhead. Very cold air at 850-500 hPa
will result in very steep lapse rates, with deep inverted-V
profiles noted in forecast soundings up to 8-12 kft. This will
result in wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph as dry low-level air moves
in. Given mid-level moisture and the sw, some cloud cover and a
few sprinkles or even a light/brief graupel shower can`t be
ruled out. Did undercut NBM temps by a degree or two in most
areas given the cold airmass.
With the overlap in very dry air and strong winds, the fire wx
threat Mon needs to be monitored. It is conditional and based on
how much rain falls. More detail in fire wx section below.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread freeze expected Monday night.
High pressure builds overhead Mon night into Tue leading to
lighter winds. The cold, dry airmass, clear skies and light to
calm winds Mon night into Tue morning are likely to bring
widespread frost/freeze conditions. Issued a Freeze Watch where
confidence is >50% for low temps less than 32F Mon night. This
is ~10 days past the median date of the last spring freeze based
on 1991-2020 climatology for areas along/east of I-81. Given
the warmth early this spring, many areas are ahead of schedule
from a growth stand point so this freeze could be rather
impactful. Should be noted areas in srn MD and east of I-95
still have a frost threat as temps generally hover 33-35F.
No frost/freeze headlines for the Alleghenies as the growing
season has not started yet.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An abrupt wind shift to the NW is expected 06Z-12Z Sun with
FROPA. Some MVFR is possible Sun AM. Gusty winds of 30 to
perhaps 40 kts are possible for a brief time right after FROPA.
Gusts of 20 to 30 kts then linger through this eve with lighter
winds tonight. A secondary cold front likely results in 20 to
30 kt gusts again heading into Mon with a spotty shower.
Otherwise, VFR Sun night through Tue. Winds shift to S by Tue.
Although a few showers are possible on Wed, expect mainly VFR
conditions. This theme continues into Thu as drier air moves in
behind the cold front. In response to this cold front, W to
SW`ly winds may gust to around 15 to 20 knots. Winds on
Wed night into Thu become lighter and out of the N.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds have subsided aside from wider waters off southern MD as
of 2 AM. An abrupt wind shift to the NW is expected between 4
AM and 8 AM this morning from NW to SE, with gusts of 30-40 kts
for a brief time likely necessitating SMWs even if there is
little to no precip as a strong cold front crosses the waters.
Showers and gusty winds (SCAs) linger behind the front, with
drying expected this aft. Winds become lighter tonight then
increase again Mon with a secondary front. Light winds Mon night
turn s`ly Tue with additional SCAs possible by Tue night.
An uptick in sw`ly winds is possible on Wed morning which may
warrant SCAs over the srn waters. However, winds largely
decrease to below SCA levels through the remainder of Wed into
Thu as winds shift to N`ly behind the front.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Rain amounts may average a tenth to three tenths of an inch and
may not be sufficient to wet fuels significantly. It should be
noted some hi-res guidance does have localized amounts near a
half an inch, but pinpointing the exact locations of these
spotty amounts is very difficult. Strong gusty winds of 35 mph
with potential for gusts as high as 45 mph will create renewed
fire weather concerns despite marginal humidities and the
overall light rainfall more so on Mon. Given the short duration
of precip (6 hours or less for most), the 100-hour fuel
moisture values aren`t likely to rise much at all. The 10-hour
fuel moisture likely rises considerably, but drops quickly
through the day today due to the drying effects of strong winds
and rapidly lowering humidity especially west of the Blue Ridge
and Catoctin Mountains.
Much cooler temperatures are expected Mon and Tue with a
moderating trend in temps expected during the middle and second
half of the week. Strongest winds look to be on Mon out of the
NW with gusts to 25 mph (30 mph over ridges). For the rest of
the week, winds will be on light side thanks to high pressure
overhead, but humidities will be marginally low to near critical
levels. The next potential for rainfall is Wed into Thu, but
amounts look light again.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SE flow will cause tides to rise to around or a little over one
foot above normal through early this morning ahead of a strong
cold front. Minor tidal flooding is possible at several sites
especially for the waters around central to southern MD, with
near moderate flooding possible in a high-end scenario at
Annapolis (though a wind shift to the NW right around high tide
should prevent that).
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this
evening for MDZ008.
Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for MDZ003>006-008-011-503>508.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MDZ014.
VA...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-053-055-056-501-502-
505>508-526-527.
WV...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for WVZ051>053.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this
evening for ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for ANZ530.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ534-
537-543.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BRO/DHOF/CPB
AVIATION...BRO/DHOF/CPB
MARINE...BRO/DHOF/CPB
FXUS61 KLWX 190608
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
208 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Freeze Watch was issued for Monday Night where >50% probability
of low temperatures less than 32F.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- (1) First widespread (albeit light) rain this morning in over
a week.
- (2) Fire weather possible this afternoon and Monday.
- (3) Widespread freeze expected Monday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...First widespread (albeit light) rain this morning in over
a week.
Intermittent SHRA will be the story through this morn and into
the aft east of I-95 as a cold front progresses eastward.
Rainfall amounts as of 2AM are on the higher side of previous
guidance (generally two tenths to a half inch across the NW FA).
Perhaps this is a telling sign as we move through the morning,
as any additional few hundredths or tenths will be beneficial
given ongoing drought. Overall, still expecting a general one
to three tenths with localized spots near a half an inch. As the
cldfrnt moves E, S/SE winds will quickly shift to W/NW today.
Winds could gust 40-45 mph immediately behind the front. High
temps today will be reached early in the day.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Fire weather possible this afternoon and
Monday.
Depending on how much rain falls this morning and how quickly
things dry out with blustery W/NW wind at ~25 mph or so, there
could be a fire weather threat mainly west of the Blue Ridge.
Areas further east have less time drying out and generally
weaker winds.
Following a secondary cold front Mon, a strong upper-level
trof and sw will pivot overhead. Very cold air at 850-500 hPa
will result in very steep lapse rates, with deep inverted-V
profiles noted in forecast soundings up to 8-12 kft. This will
result in wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph as dry low-level air moves
in. Given mid-level moisture and the sw, some cloud cover and a
few sprinkles or even a light/brief graupel shower can`t be
ruled out. Did undercut NBM temps by a degree or two in most
areas given the cold airmass.
With the overlap in very dry air and strong winds, the fire wx
threat Mon needs to be monitored. It is conditional and based on
how much rain falls. More detail in fire wx section below.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread freeze expected Monday night.
High pressure builds overhead Mon night into Tue leading to
lighter winds. The cold, dry airmass, clear skies and light to
calm winds Mon night into Tue morning are likely to bring
widespread frost/freeze conditions. Issued a Freeze Watch where
confidence is >50% for low temps less than 32F Mon night. This
is ~10 days past the median date of the last spring freeze based
on 1991-2020 climatology for areas along/east of I-81. Given
the warmth early this spring, many areas are ahead of schedule
from a growth stand point so this freeze could be rather
impactful. Should be noted areas in srn MD and east of I-95
still have a frost threat as temps generally hover 33-35F.
No frost/freeze headlines for the Alleghenies as the growing
season has not started yet.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An abrupt wind shift to the NW is expected 06Z-12Z Sun with
FROPA. Some MVFR is possible Sun AM. Gusty winds of 30 to
perhaps 40 kts are possible for a brief time right after FROPA.
Gusts of 20 to 30 kts then linger through this eve with lighter
winds tonight. A secondary cold front likely results in 20 to
30 kt gusts again heading into Mon with a spotty shower.
Otherwise, VFR Sun night through Tue. Winds shift to S by Tue.
Although a few showers are possible on Wed, expect mainly VFR
conditions. This theme continues into Thu as drier air moves in
behind the cold front. In response to this cold front, W to
SW`ly winds may gust to around 15 to 20 knots. Winds on
Wed night into Thu become lighter and out of the N.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds have subsided aside from wider waters off southern MD as
of 2 AM. An abrupt wind shift to the NW is expected between 4
AM and 8 AM this morning from NW to SE, with gusts of 30-40 kts
for a brief time likely necessitating SMWs even if there is
little to no precip as a strong cold front crosses the waters.
Showers and gusty winds (SCAs) linger behind the front, with
drying expected this aft. Winds become lighter tonight then
increase again Mon with a secondary front. Light winds Mon night
turn s`ly Tue with additional SCAs possible by Tue night.
An uptick in sw`ly winds is possible on Wed morning which may
warrant SCAs over the srn waters. However, winds largely
decrease to below SCA levels through the remainder of Wed into
Thu as winds shift to N`ly behind the front.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Rain amounts may average a tenth to three tenths of an inch and
may not be sufficient to wet fuels significantly. It should be
noted some hi-res guidance does have localized amounts near a
half an inch, but pinpointing the exact locations of these
spotty amounts is very difficult. Strong gusty winds of 35 mph
with potential for gusts as high as 45 mph will create renewed
fire weather concerns despite marginal humidities and the
overall light rainfall more so on Mon. Given the short duration
of precip (6 hours or less for most), the 100-hour fuel
moisture values aren`t likely to rise much at all. The 10-hour
fuel moisture likely rises considerably, but drops quickly
through the day today due to the drying effects of strong winds
and rapidly lowering humidity especially west of the Blue Ridge
and Catoctin Mountains.
Much cooler temperatures are expected Mon and Tue with a
moderating trend in temps expected during the middle and second
half of the week. Strongest winds look to be on Mon out of the
NW with gusts to 25 mph (30 mph over ridges). For the rest of
the week, winds will be on light side thanks to high pressure
overhead, but humidities will be marginally low to near critical
levels. The next potential for rainfall is Wed into Thu, but
amounts look light again.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SE flow will cause tides to rise to around or a little over one
foot above normal through early this morning ahead of a strong
cold front. Minor tidal flooding is possible at several sites
especially for the waters around central to southern MD, with
near moderate flooding possible in a high-end scenario at
Annapolis (though a wind shift to the NW right around high tide
should prevent that).
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this
evening for MDZ008.
Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for MDZ003>006-008-011-503>508.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MDZ014.
VA...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-053-055-056-501-502-
505>508-526-527.
WV...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for WVZ051>053.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this
evening for ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for ANZ530.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ534-
537-543.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BRO/DHOF/CPB
AVIATION...BRO/DHOF/CPB
MARINE...BRO/DHOF/CPB