2 Mile SSE Lititz, PA
2 Mile SSE Lititz, PA Forecast Discussion
244
FXUS61 KCTP 070714
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
314 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* The Frost Advisory for tonight has been expanded to include
Clearfield and Tioga Counties.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Have slightly increased rainfall chances later today across
the northern tier of the state. Periods of showers possible through Friday,
then rain likely Saturday and part of Sunday.
2) Chillier to end the week with frost/freeze potential
returning this morning and later tonight into Friday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Have slightly increased rainfall chances later
today across the northern tier of the state. Periods of showers
possible through Friday, then rain likely Saturday and Sunday.
Light rain showers are moving out of far SE PA early this
morning. In their wake, drier conditions are expected to start
Thursday. Increasing troughing as the day progresses though
has lead to slightly increased signal for scattered showers
north of I-80 later tomorrow afternoon into the evening. Friday
also sees chances of rain mostly across northern PA as another
troughing feature moves through. Rain chances increase for the
weekend as multiple disturbances track across the area.
-------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: Chillier to end the week with frost/freeze
potential returning tonight and tomorrow night.
High pressure building in behind the cold front tonight will
allow for skies to at least partially clear out over northwest
PA and allow for winds to become light. This should support
efficient radiational cooling and we expect temperatures to fall
into the mid 30s over much of the northern tier. Frost
formation appears most likely over the northwestern corner of
the CWA and we have issued a Frost Advisory for Warren, McKean,
Elk, Cameron, Clearfield, Potter, and Tioga Counties which is in
effect from midnight through 8 am Thursday. Patchy frost may
still be possible outside of the advisory if skies clear out at
least a few hours before sunrise.
Another chilly night is expected for Thursday night with frost
and freeze conditions possible once again. Not many pixels of
32F or lower on the MinT grid, but a small (20%) risk is there
for someone to have a freeze across the NW. The risk for frost
is much more - around 70% for the Allegheny Plateau and Laurel
Highlands. Cloud cover moving in early in the morning may limit
how long the frost lasts; will monitor new model data as the
day progresses to get a better handle of timing details for
likely frost advisory.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Back edge of the lower-level cloud deck roughly stationed along
a YNG-HLG-UNI line will continue tracking further east this
morning, with widespread SKC expected on the end of the back-end
of this cloud deck. A brief period of SCT-BKN is possible just
ahead of SKC; however, VFR conditions are virtually certain
overnight through 12Z Thursday. Some scattered rain showers
across SE PA (MDT/LNS) will bring some chances; however, this
will be on a subtle downtrend between 06-09Z Thursday. Highest
potential for SHRA at the airfields will be limited to LNS, thus
have outlined a slightly lower-level (still VFR) cloud deck.
Model guidance does indicate some scattered SHRA, mainly
impacting N/W PA throughout the late afternoon and early
evening hours, generally between 17Z Thur and 04Z Fri. Recent
HREF/GLAMP model guidance is not super robust with respect to
mentions; however, could see mentions being added in at
BFD/IPT/UNV in future TAF packages but given the lower (< 30%)
confidence have removed any mentions at this time. All model
guidance points towards another (mostly) clear overnight
period, so have started to outline some clearing in the 00Z-06Z
Thur timeframe this cycle, highest confidence across E PA
(MDT/LNS/IPT/UNV).
Outlook...
Fri...VFR with some spotty afternoon/evening SHRA.
Sat...Restrictions possible in RA.
Sun...VFR favored early, with restrictions becoming more likely
in the afternoon as cold front moves SE. SHRA with isolated
TSRA possible as cold front passes through.
Mon...VFR favored, with restrictions possible SE from lingering
SHRA/RA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ004>006-010-
011-017-037.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert/Lambrech
KEY MESSAGES...Colbert/Lambrech
DISCUSSION...Colbert/Lambrech
AVIATION...Beaty
FXUS61 KCTP 070714
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
314 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* The Frost Advisory for tonight has been expanded to include
Clearfield and Tioga Counties.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Have slightly increased rainfall chances later today across
the northern tier of the state. Periods of showers possible through Friday,
then rain likely Saturday and part of Sunday.
2) Chillier to end the week with frost/freeze potential
returning this morning and later tonight into Friday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Have slightly increased rainfall chances later
today across the northern tier of the state. Periods of showers
possible through Friday, then rain likely Saturday and Sunday.
Light rain showers are moving out of far SE PA early this
morning. In their wake, drier conditions are expected to start
Thursday. Increasing troughing as the day progresses though
has lead to slightly increased signal for scattered showers
north of I-80 later tomorrow afternoon into the evening. Friday
also sees chances of rain mostly across northern PA as another
troughing feature moves through. Rain chances increase for the
weekend as multiple disturbances track across the area.
-------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: Chillier to end the week with frost/freeze
potential returning tonight and tomorrow night.
High pressure building in behind the cold front tonight will
allow for skies to at least partially clear out over northwest
PA and allow for winds to become light. This should support
efficient radiational cooling and we expect temperatures to fall
into the mid 30s over much of the northern tier. Frost
formation appears most likely over the northwestern corner of
the CWA and we have issued a Frost Advisory for Warren, McKean,
Elk, Cameron, Clearfield, Potter, and Tioga Counties which is in
effect from midnight through 8 am Thursday. Patchy frost may
still be possible outside of the advisory if skies clear out at
least a few hours before sunrise.
Another chilly night is expected for Thursday night with frost
and freeze conditions possible once again. Not many pixels of
32F or lower on the MinT grid, but a small (20%) risk is there
for someone to have a freeze across the NW. The risk for frost
is much more - around 70% for the Allegheny Plateau and Laurel
Highlands. Cloud cover moving in early in the morning may limit
how long the frost lasts; will monitor new model data as the
day progresses to get a better handle of timing details for
likely frost advisory.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Back edge of the lower-level cloud deck roughly stationed along
a YNG-HLG-UNI line will continue tracking further east this
morning, with widespread SKC expected on the end of the back-end
of this cloud deck. A brief period of SCT-BKN is possible just
ahead of SKC; however, VFR conditions are virtually certain
overnight through 12Z Thursday. Some scattered rain showers
across SE PA (MDT/LNS) will bring some chances; however, this
will be on a subtle downtrend between 06-09Z Thursday. Highest
potential for SHRA at the airfields will be limited to LNS, thus
have outlined a slightly lower-level (still VFR) cloud deck.
Model guidance does indicate some scattered SHRA, mainly
impacting N/W PA throughout the late afternoon and early
evening hours, generally between 17Z Thur and 04Z Fri. Recent
HREF/GLAMP model guidance is not super robust with respect to
mentions; however, could see mentions being added in at
BFD/IPT/UNV in future TAF packages but given the lower (< 30%)
confidence have removed any mentions at this time. All model
guidance points towards another (mostly) clear overnight
period, so have started to outline some clearing in the 00Z-06Z
Thur timeframe this cycle, highest confidence across E PA
(MDT/LNS/IPT/UNV).
Outlook...
Fri...VFR with some spotty afternoon/evening SHRA.
Sat...Restrictions possible in RA.
Sun...VFR favored early, with restrictions becoming more likely
in the afternoon as cold front moves SE. SHRA with isolated
TSRA possible as cold front passes through.
Mon...VFR favored, with restrictions possible SE from lingering
SHRA/RA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ004>006-010-
011-017-037.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert/Lambrech
KEY MESSAGES...Colbert/Lambrech
DISCUSSION...Colbert/Lambrech
AVIATION...Beaty