Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
112 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy northwest winds gusting 25 to 30 mph are expected the
remainder of this afternoon into the evening behind a cold
front. Temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 20s
tonight.
- A weak weather system may bring a 15-20% chance for a dusting of
snow to parts of central Illinois on Thursday, though little
to no accumulation is expected.
- A significant warming trend begins this weekend and continues into
next week. There is a 60-90% chance that high temperatures
will reach the 60s by next Tuesday.
- The chance for rain (30-50%) this weekend continues to shift
south.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Today/Tonight (Post-Frontal Winds and Overnight Chill)...
A cold front is actively sweeping through central Illinois this
afternoon. Expect winds to quickly shift to the northwest and
increase, with gusts peaking in the 25 to 30 mph range behind the
front. Temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 20s overnight
into Wednesday morning.
Late-Week (Weak System and Warming Trend)...
The second half of the work week will see broad upper troughing
centered along the East Coast, maintaining a northwest flow aloft
over central Illinois. This setup creates a west-to-east
temperature gradient across the region, with slightly warmer air
to the west. Wednesday and Thursday will feature a period of
slightly above-normal temperatures, with highs generally ranging
from the low 40s (east) to the mid 40s (west). Mid to upper 40s
are expected area-wide on Friday.
A damping shortwave trough is progged to dig from the northern
Great Plains Wednesday night toward northern Illinois by Thursday
afternoon. A narrow ribbon of isentropic ascent (285-295K
surfaces) is anticipated ahead of this wave, which suggests a
chance for precipitation despite the ebbing forcing. However, the
latest model guidance continues to reduce the likelihood of
measurable precipitation, and especially accumulating snow. This
reduction is due to both the weak forcing and a sufficiently warm
boundary layer evident in forecast soundings, which would quickly
melt falling hydrometeors. The NBM is now very pessimistic
regarding snow accumulation, suggesting a probability for an inch
of snow is less than 5%. The probability of a dusting (0.1 inches)
is only around 15-20% across central Illinois. Precip type
probabilities from the NBM favor rain south of I-74, with a more
even split of rain/mix probabilities along the I-74 corridor.
Weekend/Extended (Southerly Track and Significant Warming)...
Focus then shifts to a strong shortwave trough forecast to move
across Southern California and Baja on Friday before tracking east
across the lower Mississippi Valley Saturday night. Both the
recent ECMWF and GFS model runs have shifted this feature
significantly south, aligning with a track that keeps nearly all
associated precipitation out of the central Illinois forecast area
(with only the GFS clipping our southern three counties). The
GEM, while still a northerly outlier, has also trended south. The
NBM, often slower to adjust to operational model shifts, maintains
a PoP spread of 25% (north) to 50% (south) for Saturday and
Saturday night.
Assuming the southerly track holds, the weekend is expected to be
rather benign. Conditions will be mild with light winds under the
influence of a surface ridge north of the low track, yielding
high temperatures well into the 50s.
As the surface ridge axis shifts east through the middle of next
week, a significant and gradual warming trend will continue across
central Illinois. The likelihood of high temperatures reaching
the 60s peaks on Tuesday, with probabilities ranging from 60% in
the east to 90% in the west, followed by a 50% chance in the north
to an 80% chance in the south on Wednesday.
Deubelbeiss
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
VFR conditions rule through the 18z TAF period. Winds out of the
NW will gust to 20 knots this afternoon, but then will relax to
less than 10 knots by 00z this evening.
