Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
451 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025
.DISCUSSION...Showers continue across northern California and
southern Oregon this morning as an upper trough remains in place.
Oregon webcams show snowfall continues around Diamond Lake and at
Willamette Pass.
A passing shortwave will reinvigorate precipitation chances
across the area later this morning. With snow levels hovering at
4500-5500 feet through today, snowfall will be limited to higher
terrain. Higher portions of the Cascades (Including around Crater
Lake and Diamond Lake) and Warner Mountains look to get another 6
to 8 inches of snowfall, while other mountainous areas are
forecast to get 4 inches of snowfall or less today. SPC HREF
guidance shows snowfall rates of 0.5 inches per hour are possible
over parts of the Cascades this afternoon. Lower elevation areas
may see local moderate to heavy rainfall as the shortwave travels
eastward, but passing showers will be more common today. This
shortwave will also bring some gusty winds to coastal areas late
in the morning and to Lake County terrain this afternoon and
evening, but nothing approaching hazard levels. Precipitation
decreases quickly this evening as the shortwave leaves the area.
Cool overnight temperatures are expected tonight, with some near-
frost conditions in the forecast for some west side valleys.
Temperatures in the Illinois, Applegate, Rogue, and Klamath River
valleys hover near 36 degrees tonight into Monday morning. These
conditions do not quite require a full advisory as of this
discussion, but local frosty conditions are possible in the
lowest elevations. The Umpqua Basin looks to stay safely in the
low 40s, while lows east of the Cascades are in the high 20s
(Modoc, eastern Siskiyou counties) to low 20s (Lake and Klamath
Counties).
An upper ridge looks to build over the southwestern US to start
the week, with deterministic guidance keeping this feature in
place through the rest of the month and into November.
Temperatures stay cool through Sunday and Monday then rise to just
above seasonable levels by Tuesday. This gets west side valleys to
the high 60s or low 70s. Easterly winds look to bring these warmer
temperatures to coastal areas as well, with highs of mid to high
60s possible for coastal cities. East side areas have daytime
highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.
The same imagery shows an occasional front working to flatten the
ridge, with slight chances (30-50%) of coastal showers on
Wednesday morning. Another front may push farther inland on
Saturday or Sunday, but even then activity would be generally
limited to west side areas and would be unimpactful. Meteogram
guidance for both the ECMWF and GFS models shows good agreement
for these weak fronts as well. -TAD
&&
.AVIATION...26/12Z TAFs...Showers pick up this morning as an upper
disturbance moves over the area. These showers look to bring periods
of MVFR ceilings and visibilities to west side terminals through
this afternoon, with activity east of the Cascades continuing
towards this evening. Periods of locally heavy rainfall may bring
locally lower ceilings and visibilities and could obscure terrain.
Snow levels remain at 4000-5000 feet during the day, which keeps
snow showers over higher terrain.
Activity decreases across the area this evening and into Monday
morning. Currently flight levels look to be at VFR across the area
towards the end of the TAF period. There are early indications of
early Monday morning development in the Rogue Valley and Klamath
Basin, but nothing concrete enough to include in the Medford and
Klamath Falls TAFs at this point. -TAD
&&
.MARINE...Updated 500 AM PDT Sunday, October 24, 2025...Winds are
easing across area waters this morning. A Hazardous Seas Warning
has become a Small Craft Advisory for all area waters, but local
very steep and hazardous seas may remain at this transition point.
A passing atmospheric disturbance will support continuing gusty
southerly winds and steep seas into Monday morning. Marine showers
continue this morning, but chances for thunderstorms are slight
and absent by the afternoon.
Overall conditions will improve Monday, with relatively calmer
conditions through Tuesday. A thermal trough will develop behind a
front Wednesday bringing moderate to occasionally strong north winds
south of Cape Blanco. -Petrucelli/TAD
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 PM PDT Saturday, October 25, 2025...
Hazardous beach conditions will persist through the weekend.
Moderate to heavy long period west swell is already present ranging
from 23-26 ft. Since high wave heights are likely to last through
Sunday evening, the high surf advisory will remain into this
evening to cover the threat. Impacts include large breaking waves
of 24-29 ft within the surf zone, which could inundate beaches and
low lying shorelines. Waves could wash over rocks and jetties,
beach erosion is possible, and exposed infrastructure may be
damaged. There is a high risk of sneaker waves during any lulls in
high surf. Conditions are expected to gradually improve later this
evening into tonight.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ021-022.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for ORZ027-
028.
CA...None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT early
this morning for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370-
376.
