- Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms though the end
of the week.
- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Damaging winds and large hail are the
primary threats.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1112 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
Water vapor imagery late this morning paints a busy picture across
the country. An upper trough can be seen lifting across the Plains
towards the Midwest. An elongated ribbon of H5 energy can seen
stretching back from the Midwest down to the Texas coast where a
thin line of showers/storms are ongoing. At the surface, persistent
south-southeasterly flow will lead to a gradual increase in moisture
across the region. This will warrant a low (20-30%) chance for
afternoon convection both today and Friday.
As we wrap up the work week and ahead into the weekend, an upper low
will drop out of the Pacific NW and lift across the Northern Plains.
An associated cold front will be sent our way Saturday night into
Sunday morning. A line of showers and storms will be ongoing through
the day Saturday to our west. This activity will move into our CWA
during the late afternoon to early evening hours Saturday.
Instability will be limited as these storms arrive due to lack of
daytime heating. Latest LREF probabilities hint at a 30-40%
chance of CAPE values over 500 J/kg. SPC introduced a Marginal
Risk (Level 1 of 5) for our western areas where the greatest axis
of instability will be located. We will need to monitor for a
potential flooding threat. Increased moisture convergence and a
deep warm cloud depth would promote period of heavy rainfall. The
latest QPF forecast calls for 1-2" of rain with the highest
amounts across our north and west areas. NBM probabilities reveal
a low to moderate (30-50%) chance of amounts over 2" across our NW
counties. Activity will gradually clear our southeastern counties
by mid day Sunday.
In the wake of the front, cooler and drier conditions will dominate
as surface high pressure prevails. We begin to warm back up by the
middle of next week.
PROB30 for SHRA will remain in through 2z at AUO and MGM. Winds will
lessen overnight at all sites. MVFR cigs possible at AUO tomorrow
morning, becoming VFR by midday. Winds will pick up again tomorrow
afternoon, gusting 15-18 kts. PROB30 in again late tomorrow
afternoon for MGM and AUO for passing shower potential across East
AL.
12
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast through Friday. More widespread rain returns Saturday
into Sunday. Min RH values will remain in the 40-50% range
through the weekend. Drier air in the wake of a front will drop RH
values into the 30-40% range early next week.
