Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
239 PM PST Tue Jan 6 2026
.SYNOPSIS...06/237 PM.
Strong northerly wind will pick up Wednesay evening through
Thursday evening, strongest across the mountains but gusty
conditions reaching the coast. Mostly dry conditions are expected
for the next week. Friday through the weekend, warmer conditions
are expected with moderate Santa Ana winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...06/227 PM.
A low pressure system over the coastal waters will continue to
shuttle mid-to-high level clouds into the region. Flow over the
nearshore waters off the coast of LA and Orange County will become
southeasterly tonight as the center of the low pressure travels
south. This will transport moisture into the area, thus a
scattered shower will be possible for southern LA County late
tonight into early Wednesday morning. Rain totals will be light if
any.
Wednesday night, a relatively dry and cold trough will cut into
the region. Strong upper level winds, cold air advection, and
surface pressure gradients will combine to fuel a significant
northerly wind event. A High Wind Watch has been issued for most
mountain areas and the Antelope Valley from Wednesday evening
through Thursday evening, where wind gusts of 50-65 mph are
possible. Wind Advisories are likely to be issued for many coast
and valleys areas, including the Santa Barbara South Coast,
Central Coast, Santa Clarita Valley, San Fernando Valley, Malibu,
San Gabriel Valley, and the LA Coastal Plain including Downtown
LA. There is a small chance of mountain wave activity in coast and
and valley areas, mainly across LA Count. With this activity,
unusually strong winds may locally reach the surface in areas that
are typically not very windy, with speeds briefly of similar
strength to what is expected across the mountain areas.
With the northerly winds, there is a moderate chance of
precipitation across the northern facing mountain slopes. 1 to 3
inches of snow will be possible above 5000 feet and a dusting will
be possible as low as 4000 feet.
By Thursday night, the wind direction will shift from northerly
to northeasterly. This will start a long duration moderate Santa
Ana Wind event, that will bring warmer temperatures and drier
conditions. Santa Ana Winds are expected across the typical wind-
prone corridor, focused over LA and Ventura Counties, all the way
into mid next week. However, due to the many recent rains, Red
Flag Warnings are NOT in consideration, despite the weather
conditions becoming dry and windy. All the recent rains will yield
a greater risk of downed trees and powerlines, as the soils are
so recently saturated.
.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...06/235 PM.
This weekend into mid next week, the area will see periods of
moderate strength Santa Ana Winds, with dry conditions and lots
of sunshine. At this point, winds look to be strongest on Friday,
with some Wind Advisories possible across the typically windy
Santa Ana Corridor. Temperature will warm up for the weekend,
becoming largely above normal on Sunday with many highs in the
low 70s. Overnight low temperatures will get quite cold across
wind sheltered areas, as low humidity and clearer skies will
enhance overnight cooling. The far interior will see temps in the
upper 20s and lower 30s each night, while wind sheltered valley
locations will see lows in the 40s.
Still no signal for significant rain until late January.
&&
.AVIATION...06/1648Z.
At 1630Z at KLAX, there was a surface-based inversion. The top of
the inversion was 1200 feet with a temperature of 13 degrees
Celsius.
For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in VFR conditions for all
sites through the period.
KLAX...High confidence in 18Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected
through the period. Any easterly winds are expected to remain
below 8 knots.
KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected
through the period.
&&
.MARINE...06/110 PM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Wednesday morning, high confidence in
winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels.
From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, high confidence in a
combination of SCA level winds and seas (peaking in the 12-15 foot
range). Additionally, there is a 50% chance of Gale force winds
south of Point Conception Wednesday night and Thursday. For
Saturday through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below SCA levels.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Wednesday morning,
high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For
Wednesday afternoon through Friday, high confidence in a
combination of SCA level winds and seas. For Saturday through
Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA
levels.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For tonight and Wednesday morning,
high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. From
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening, high confidence in
SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara
Channel with winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere.
For Friday through Sunday, there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level
northeast winds from around Point Mugu down to Santa Monica and
across the San Pedro Channel. Elsewhere, winds and seas are
expected to remain below SCA levels Friday through Sunday.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Wind Watch in effect from Wednesday evening through
Thursday evening for zones 352-353-376>381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM Wednesday to 2 AM
PST Friday for zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 4 PM Wednesday to 9 PM
PST Thursday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM Wednesday to 2 AM
PST Thursday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Watch in effect from late Wednesday night through
Thursday evening for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
