Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
150 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 150 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025
- A strong cold front continues to plow southward across the
south-central FL peninsula this afternoon, with isolated shower
and lightning storms possible. Temperatures turn much cooler
behind the front tonight and Friday.
- Deteriorating boating conditions expected behind the front as
winds and seas increase, with Small Craft Advisories taking
effect over the local coastal waters.
- A strong southward-flowing longshore current will be present at
area beaches on Friday due to gusty northerly winds.
- Low to medium rain chances anticipated across east central
Florida early next week as moisture increases and a frontal
boundary stalls just north of the area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025
Current-Tonight...A strong cold front continues to move southward
across the forecast area this afternoon. Some associated morning
patchy fog and very low stratus has cleared out, with gradual
improvements to overall cloud ceilings through the remainder of
the afternoon as drier air slowly pushes southward behind the
boundary. Brief light to moderate shower activity may impact
locations, south of Orlando, as the boundary moves through. An
isolated lightning storm is also possible. Clouds and cooler air
will limit max temps to near 70F north of I-4 with 70s further
southward and around 80F near Lake Okee. The pressure gradient
has tightened a bit with northerly winds increasing to 10-15 mph
(and a few higher gusts) making it feel just a bit cooler. Cloud-
cover will continue to diminish into this evening (north -->
south).
Cooler and drier tonight, with lows falling into the 40s across most
of the area. Coldest spots N/W of I-4 in the L40s. Warmest locations
will be along the Treasure Coast with L-M50s and perhaps U50s for
barrier islands. Northerly winds (breezy/gusty) continue at 10-15
mph areawide overnight. Lowest wind chill (apparent temperature)
readings overnight into Fri morning will realize U30s north/west of
I-4 with near 40F to L40s across coastal Volusia and southward
toward Lake Okee and interior (W of I-95) portions of Brevard/Indian
River counties. Elsewhere M-U40s to 50s for coastal Brevard/Treasure
Coast. Conditions will not be favorable for frost development due to
the elevated winds.
Fri-Sat...A very chilly start to the day with MClear skies
throughout the day. Fairly strong high pressure builds across the
Deep South and mid Atlc states thru the period keeping the pgrad
tight. Northerly winds 15-20 mph and gusty for many will make
eventual maxes in the 60s feel much cooler. Dry conditions thru
the period. Winds veer NE/ENE on Sat, but remain breezy/gusty.
Overnight mins into Sat morning forecast in the M-U40s N/W of I-4
with near 50F to M50s for most other locations, except U50s to
around 60F along the Space/Treasure coasts. Highs on Sat rebound
into the L-M70s. Onshore flow Sat overnight will keep mins warmer
yet, with values in the M-U50s to near 60F across much of the
interior and L-M60s along the coast, perhaps U60s for barrier
islands.
It should be noted that a strong southward-flowing longshore current
will exist at area beaches on Fri due to gusty northerly winds. A
longshore current flows parallel to the coastline and is dangerous
as it can push swimmers off the sandbar and into deeper water making
them more susceptible to being caught in a rip current.
Sun-Thu...Previous Modified...Quasi-zonal flow aloft diminishes as a
mid-level trough sweeps across the central US towards the Mid-
Atlantic late this weekend into early next week, with a few weak
waves of energy forecast to move across ECFL. Towards the middle
of next week, a more vigorous trough is forecast to sweep across
the eastern US, with this feature extending southward towards
Florida and pushing offshore. This pattern in the mid-levels will
result in an evolving pattern at the surface. There remains some
timing discrepancies between medium/long-range guidance, though
models continue to slowly trend more in line lifting a former
frontal boundary northward across the peninsula on Sun, stalling
north of the area Mon/Tue, with a cold front then moving across
the area early on Wed. This pattern will result in increasing
moisture across the area, with increasing rain chances. Continue
to stick with the NBM at 20-40% through the period across the
peninsula, but could see some increases in rain chances on Tue
(pre-frontal). Isolated storm development cannot be ruled out with
this activity, and will continue to monitor as the forecast
evolves. By Wed, the forecast calls for the passage of a cold
front, with conditions forecast to dry out across ECFL mid to late
week.
Temperatures through the extended are forecast to gradually warm
through at least Tue, generally between the M-U70s to L80s. Slightly
cooler on Wed as the front moves across the area, with highs
generally in the 70s areawide. Lows in the 60s Sun and Mon nights,
falling into the 50s to M60s Tue night onward.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 150 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025
A strong cold front continues to move southward across the local
waters this afternoon. ISOLD-WDLY SCT showers (few lightning
storms) will be possible thru late today. Winds continue to veer
NWRLY behind it with speeds increasing to 15-20 kts with higher
gusts and expecting speeds continuing to increase to 20-25 kts
into tonight/Fri. Gusts to 25-30 kts will be possible. Seas will
be slower to respond, but will manage 5-7 ft across the Gulf
Stream by early to mid evening, building further to 5-7 ft near
shore and 6-8 ft Gulf Stream overnight. Small Craft Advisories
remain in effect areawide into Fri evening, for much of the Gulf
Stream thru Fri night, with poor conditions continuing Sat-Sat
night (esp in the Gulf Stream). Seas slowly respond by subsiding
to 3-5 ft Sun-Tue of next week. The pgrad finally slowly relaxes
Sun into next week. An onshore wind component develops Fri night
continuing into at least Mon evening, then turning more southerly
(S/SW) into Tue. Moisture pools back into the area on Sun with a
gradual increase in showery precip thru early next week, with
ISOLD lightning storms also possible. Next possible frontal
passage may be on Wed.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1227 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025
Surface cold front currently working its way across the area this
afternoon, leading to pockets of light rain with some embedded
heavier downpours. Persistent MVFR cigs with the boundary and
leftover from this morning`s low stratus will linger for a few
more hours (through 19-21Z) across central forecast corridor
(KTIX-KMCO-KMLB) until ceilings quickly lift behind the front.
Further to the south (KVRB-KSUA), expect a mix of VFR/MVFR
conditions as the front and its attendant showers move through
between 19-23Z. Gusty north winds expected to develop behind the
front, especially along coastal terminals.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 150 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025
Sensitive fire weather conditions are forecast across northern
portions of ECFL late this afternoon behind a strong cold front.
Minimum RH values fall into the 35-40% range near and north of the
I-4 corridor late this afternoon, with northerly winds picking up
to around 10-12 mph with some higher gusts. On Friday, an area of
high pressure develops north of the area, with drier air settling
across ECFL. Minimum RH values fall to 20-35% across the
interior, with northerly winds of 10 to 15 mph and gusts to 25 mph
possible. The Significant Fire Potential forecast maintains a
"low" risk across the area on Friday, but if this were to increase
to "moderate", Red Flag issuance may be necessary for portions of
the area. This weekend and beyond, moisture is anticipated to
increase, with fire weather concerns decreasing.
