Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
518 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- While temperatures today will be the warmest of the week (50s),
no cold surges are on tap. Temperatures into the weekend are
expected to be above seasonal normals, with highs in the 40s
common.
- The best chances of precipitation will be during the weekend,
though trends are suggesting a lesser impact for areas north of
I-70.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Latest surface map shows a frontal boundary extending from western
Wisconsin to central Kansas. Temperatures remain well above
freezing over most of the forecast area this hour, aside from
areas south of I-70 in southeast Illinois, where winds are lighter
and temperatures are near freezing. Recent cloud cover has been
of the high variety and more concentrated north of I-72, though
this has been thinning out some as it moves eastward.
Short range guidance has been in good agreement with the front
reaching near the I-57 corridor by midday. Forecast soundings
remain rather parched, and this is largely expected to be a dry
passage. Highs in the lower 50s still seem reasonable north of
I-70. Concern is with areas south of I-70, where forecast
soundings show a steep inversion around 1,000 feet. CoCoRaHS
observations from Monday morning showed about 2-2.5 inches of snow
depth lingering across the Wabash Valley, and afternoon visible
satellite imagery suggested that not much managed to melt off
during the day as high temperatures were in the mid-upper 30s.
Dew points are forecast to surge well into the 40s, and combined
with the added moisture from snow melt, a stratus deck has
potential to keep temperatures down somewhat. However, NBM 10th
percentile max temperature guidance would still suggest at least
lower 50s.
The Thursday shortwave continues to trend toward not being of much
consequence, with lowering precipitation chances mainly in the 20%
range. The stronger weekend storm is also leaning toward a lesser
impact for central Illinois. Deterministic GFS/ECMWF guidance
moves the strong upper low in north Texas to the east/southeast.
NBM guidance has dropped by about 15-20% in rain chances Saturday
and Saturday night, though an increasing number of GFS/ECMWF
ensembles are suggesting PoP`s north of I-70 may still be too
generous. The Canadian model and its ensembles remain on the
higher end of the guidance, stronger and further north with the
storm system (with the upper low west of St. Louis by Sunday
morning), and are likely driving the NBM too high. Thus, would
expect subsequent forecasts to continue trending lower with rain
chances.
The overall pattern continues to be devoid of any cold surges,
with temperatures staying above mid-February normals. CPC 6-10
day outlook shows a 60-70% chance of above normal temperatures
continuing through the end of next week.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 518 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Recent ACARS sounding from KPIA, along with the just-launched
balloon at our office, shows the low level jet is around 1500
feet, about 45-50 knots. Model guidance indicates this will
persist for a couple more hours, but shift eastward as the surface
front moves into central Illinois. Behind the front, winds shift
to the northwest and will gust to around 20 knots for several
hours. While winds diminish a bit at sunset, they still will be
8-10 knots out of the northwest.
VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours, with mainly high
clouds at times.
