Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
231 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few thunderstorms will develop along an advancing warm front
this afternoon into early this evening. There is a low risk
for all severe hazards...with the highest probability of
tornadoes (5-10% chance) focused along and north of a
Rushville to Bloomington line.
- Another round of convection is expected from late evening
through the overnight hours. The primary hazard will be
damaging wind gusts...mainly west of the Illinois River.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026
...Tornado Risk This Afternoon...
A frontal boundary will drop south of I-70 this morning, then
will begin lifting back northward as a warm front this
afternoon. The atmosphere in the vicinity of the front will
become moderately unstable with HREF mean SBCAPEs around
2000J/kg by peak heating. While deep-layer shear will be rather
modest (0-6km bulk shear 30-40kt), enhanced low-level shear near
the boundary raises concern for a few tornadoes with the
strongest cells. HREF mean 0-3km SRH maximizes further northwest
across Iowa in closer proximity to the triple point: however,
values of 100-150 are noted further east along the warm front.
In addition, 0-3km VGP peaks at around 0.50 along/north of a
Rushville to Bloomington line by 00z...where SPC has indicated a
5-10% chance for tornadoes. Based on these parameters and a
consistent signal from the HRRR/RRFS, think cells will initially
develop just north of I-70 between 18z/1pm and 19z/2pm, then
slowly shift northward through the remainder of the afternoon.
While there will be a low severe risk with the storms at any
time, the enhanced parameters point to a higher chance for a
few tornadoes across the NW KILX CWA between 21z/4pm and
00z/7pm.
...Another Round of Thunderstorms Later Tonight...
Meanwhile further west, thunderstorms will develop along a cold
front from central Iowa to eastern Kansas by late afternoon.
Tornadoes and large hail will initially be possible:however, as
the cells congeal into a line, the primary hazard will become
damaging wind gusts as the storms advance eastward across the
Mississippi River by late evening. Latest CAMs still indicate
convection arriving in the Illinois River Valley between 10pm
and midnight, then pushing eastward across the I-55 corridor
between 2am and 4am. With daytime instability waning and upper
support/strongest deep-layer shear well to the north, the
convective line will gradually lose its punch as it tracks
eastward across central Illinois. SPC continues to highlight
locations west of the Illinois River with a Slight Risk (level 2
of 5) for severe...with areas further east as a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5). Will need to keep an eye on later model runs and
radar trends as the event begins to unfold, but as of right
now...think wind gusts will likely be sub-severe by the time the
storms approach I-55.
...Quiet/Cooler Weather Early Next Week...
Showers and a few thunderstorms will linger into Saturday
morning...especially east of I-55...before coming to an end from
west to east during the afternoon. As high pressure builds into
the region, a period of chilly weather will be on tap. High
temperatures will drop below normal for this time of year into
the lower to middle 50s Sunday through Tuesday, while overnight
lows dip into the 30s. The coldest period will be Monday night
when the LREF suggests a 60-80% chance of readings dropping
below 30 degrees along/north of a Macomb to Champaign line.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026
A cold front will settle just south of the I-72 terminals KSPI-
KDEC-KCMI overnight, with potential for SHRA/TSRA in this
vicinity, then the front will lift northward across the central
IL terminals in the afternoon as a warm front, with another
period of scattered thunderstorms. There is a risk of strong
gusty and erratic winds, heavy rain, and isolated hail with the
stronger storms. These storms look to move to the north during
the evening, while a cold front and more associated thunderstorm
activity approaches from the west. These storms look to arrive
at KPIA and KSPI by 04Z-05Z, but after 06Z for the remainder of
the central IL terminals. Have included TEMPO for TSRA with MVFR
conditions from around 20Z-01Z, but otherwise probability for
thunderstorms looks too low for mention until 04Z-06Z. An area
of MVFR cigs looks to affect KPIA and KBMI overnight, and areas
of MVFR cigs will also exist near the cold front, affecting KDEC
and KCMI until around 07Z-08Z. Winds becoming W around 10 behind
the front, decreasing toward 12Z. Winds becoming S-SE 7-11 kts
by 17Z.
