Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1252 PM EST Tue Jan 6 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There has been a slight reduction in snow amounts for the
mountains and foothills for tonight into Wednesday. Ice amounts
have also come down slightly across southern and coastal areas
due to the possibility of more sleet mixing in, but slick travel
is still expected across the region tonight and Wednesday
morning.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Key Message 1: Widespread wintry precipitation expected this
evening through Wednesday and is expected to bring slick
travel and impact the Wednesday morning commute. Precipitation
tapers off by Wednesday afternoon.
- Key Message 2: Patchy freezing drizzle is possible Friday
morning before temperatures warm up Friday as low pressure
tracks north of the region bringing mainly light rain.
- Key Message 3: Accumulating wintry precipitation is possible
Saturday night through Sunday as the next low pressure system
tracks across northern New England. Areas south of the foothills
likely see more in the way of rain than wintry precipitation
with this system.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 Discussion...
The weather will remain quiet this afternoon before wintry
precipitation returns...but fortunately after this evening`s
commute. Precipitation, mostly in the form of snow, will then
overspread the area this evening as lift and moisture increase with
low pressure approaching from the Great Lakes, and based on latest
guidance this will be in the 7-9pm timeframe across NH and then into
western ME between 9pm and midnight. It should be noted that
portions of southern NH could see precip start as freezing rain
or sleet.
As the night goes on, temperatures at the surface will remain
subfreezing with CAD and a developing low over the Gulf of Maine,
but warming aloft is expected to allow a change to or at the
very least mix of freezing rain and/or sleet across southern NH
and the Maine coast through Wednesday morning. It`s uncertain
exactly how far inland the freezing rain or sleet make it, but
the expectation is still for precip stay mainly snow from the
foothills northward. There may be even a brief period of plain
rain along the immediate coastline, but the main takeaway is
that regardless of ptype, the Wednesday morning commute looks
messy across all of NH and western ME. No changes to the current
Winter Weather Advisories.
Guidance has come down slight but remains fairly consistent in
QPF being fairly light with this system and mostly in the 0.20"
to 0.40" range which will yield 2-4" of snow to where ptype
stays all or mostly snow. To the south, expecting mainly a
coating to 2" of snow, a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch
of flat ice, except a stripe of higher ice amounts of a tenth or
two of an inch of inch ice may occur across southern NH and
into far southwestern ME. This decrease is mainly due to the
possibility of more sleet mixing in and the slightly downward
trend in overall QPF.
The steady precipitation will begin tapering off from west to east
from late morning and into the afternoon south mountains, although
there still may be a few snow showers after. Skies will then start
to clear out south of the mountains Wednesday night, but upslope
flow will keep mountains mostly cloudy with a chance of snow
showers. Overnight lows will be mostly in the 20s.
Key Message 2 Discussion...
Heights build over the Northeast Thursday with a mid level ridge
axis cresting over the region Friday morning. Deep southwest flow
will advect moisture and warm air into the region with T8s climbing
to +3C to +5C Friday morning. BUFKIT profiles show a strong
inversion Friday morning with surface temperatures below freezing.
Subtle lift within a shallow moist layer beneath the inversion will
bring the potential for patchy freezing drizzle Friday morning that
could create a glaze of ice and slick travel for the morning
commute.
Surface temperatures will climb into the upper 30s to low 40s by mid
day Friday as steady precipitation breaks out across the area. By
this time, rain will be the most likely precipitation type, although
a brief wintry mix cannot be ruled out in the mountains before the
highest summits climb above freezing Friday afternoon. QPF will be
light with this system with the latest NBM bringing only around
a tenth of a inch with up to a quarter inch in the mountains.
Therefore there are no impacts expected from rainfall or melting
snow, although some river ice movement is possible.
Key Message 3 Discussion...
A cold front crosses the Friday night with high pressure building to
the north of the area Saturday. This high pressure will be in a
favorable position for cold air damming ahead of the next system
that approaches from the Great Lakes. The big forecast question at
this time is how much cold air can work back into the area before
precipitation likely breaks out by Saturday evening. Ensembles
generally agree that temperatures will remain above freezing across
southern NH and the coastal plain of Maine resulting in mostly rain
event for these areas into Sunday. From the foothills northward
precipitation types become more complex given the potential CAD and
several ensemble members suggesting a secondary low more form in the
Gulf of Maine. Have mainly stuck with the NBM which brings
mostly snow from the mountains northward, however it should be
noted that several ensemble members suggest that a change to
rain is possible well north of the Canadian Border. Across the
interior/foothills precipitation may waver between snow/mix/rain
depending on the development of a secondary low in the Gulf of
Maine. Precipitation tapers off Sunday afternoon with a shot of
much colder air building in to start the work week. The main
take away is that difficult travel will be possible Saturday
night through Sunday mainly from the foothills northward.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-Expect a range of MVFR to VFR conditions this afternoon before
conditions deteriorate to IFR or LIFR this evening and tonight as
wintry precipitation overspreads the area. Precipitation is expected
to be mainly snow initially (except could start as FZRA at PSM and
MHT) before the rest of southern NH and coastal sites see a change
to freezing rain and/or sleet overnight into Wednesday morning.
Coastal sites may even see a brief period of plain rain. HIE and LEB
are expected to stay as snow. The steady precipitation is expected
to end from west to east Wednesday morning and afternoon with a few
rain or snow showers remaining. Ceilings may a take a little longer
to improve, but conditions return to VFR Wednesday evening into
Wednesday night. The exception is HIE with a continued chance of
MVFR ceilings and snow showers.
-Active weather is likely Friday through Sunday. Low cigs and
patchy freezing drizzle will likely bring periods of at least
IFR Friday morning. Some improvement to MVFR is possible as
cigs lift and light rain overspreads the area Friday afternoon.
The airspace likely remains overcast Friday night as rain ends
before the next round of rain/wintry precipitation moves in
Saturday afternoon through Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
-Weak low pressure or troughing remains across the waters today
with another weak low developing and moving across the Gulf of
Maine tonight and Wednesday with a mix of precipitation types
possible. Northwest winds may reach SCA levels on the backside
of this low Wednesday evening into Wednesday night.
-Southerly winds increase Friday ahead of a cold front with SCAs
likely needed by Friday afternoon. Active weather is expected
to continue through the weekend as another low pressure system
crosses the waters Sunday with offshore Gales possible Sunday
afternoon.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Wednesday for MEZ007>009-012>014-033.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Wednesday for MEZ018>028.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Wednesday for NHZ001>004.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Wednesday for NHZ005>015.
MARINE...None.
