Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
618 AM EST Tue Jan 6 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure brings a widespread area of light snow and wintry
mix tonight into Wednesday. A warming trend continues through
the end of the week, with rain mixing into snow by the end of
the week. Another system this weekend could bring another chance
for mixed precipitation.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
615 AM Update...Snow has pushed off to the east, with mostly
cloudy skies remaining. This will be the norm, with some sunny
breaks for much of the rest of the day.
Previously...
Snow exits the coastline by daybreak this morning. After some
initial clearing in the morning, clouds begin to increase again
from southwest to northeast as the next system approaches. With
more clouds than sun and a cold air mass in place, highs range
from the mid 20s through much of interior Maine, to the mid 30s
across southern New Hampshire today. Some light snow showers and
flurries are possible across southern New Hampshire by sunset
this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure moves in from the Great Lakes overnight tonight.
At the same time, a secondary low pressure center organizes in
the Gulf of Maine, helping to keep cold air in place at the
surface across the forecast area. This brings a round of snow
and mixed precipitation to the area tonight as warm air moves in
aloft.
Snow spreads from southwest to northeast through the evening
hours, likely reaching everywhere by midnight. Warm air aloft
from the original low continues to make northward progress into
southern and coastal locations overnight, bringing a mix of
sleet and freezing rain after a brief period of snow. Ice
accretion up to 0.2in is possible through these areas, with the
best chance across the hillier terrain of southern New
Hampshire. Along the immediate coastline, a brief period of
plain rain is possible overnight before winds shift to north and
drop temps back below freezing again. A winter weather advisory
has been issued for the mixed precip in these areas.
Further north across the mountains and foothills, mainly snow
is expected, though some mixing with sleet can`t be ruled out. A
winter weather advisory has been issued for these areas as well
for 3-5 inches of snowfall. Some locally higher amounts are
possible through the northern mountains in Maine. The snowfall
forecast here was nudged up in these as areas as high res
guidance has trended toward slightly more QPF.
The system exits through the morning hours, with mixed precip
lingering into the morning commute across Maine. Snow is also
likely across northern New Hampshire during this time. Breaks of
sun are then expected with temperatures warming into the mid to
upper 30s through the day in most spots, with low 30s across
the north. Scattered snow showers likely linger across northern
locations and the higher terrain, as well as across parts of
central Maine into the afternoon hours.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mon Evening Update:
Warmer, above normal temperatures are still likely for the end
of the week and the weekend, with cooler temperatures returning
early next week.
For the two main opportunities for precipitation into late
week/weekend, the allocation and efficiency of cold air
advection will be crucial for wintry precip impacts vs. mostly
rain scenarios. The first disturbance Friday will be low pres
that cuts NE out of Lake Huron. Presented track in guidance is
far enough west that broad warm sector on southerly flow will
envelop much of the forecast area, meaning mainly a rain event.
Will look for some snow showers on the back into Sat morning,
but don`t see supportive CAD scenario with strong southerly
return flow and no active NE push.
Key over the weekend will be how significant of a cold push
arrives behind the associated cold front through Sat morning.
Naturally there is variation in guidance at this range, but many
global guidance solutions are showing a CAD signal as next
system pushes into the Northeast Sat evening into Sunday.
Combined with the strongest jet signal of 26` yet, this
overunning system will be one to watch for possible mixed precip
in future forecasts.
Key Messages:
* A gradual warmup should bring above normal temperatures to
the forecast area through at least the weekend.
* Expect mainly low to medium rain chances from a couple of
different systems Friday through Sunday. Some snow may mix in
over the higher terrain at times.
Discussion:
Some lingering snow showers will likely remain possible through
the Wednesday evening hours, but this activity should gradually
diminish overnight as upslope westerly flow relaxes a bit. For
temperatures Wednesday into Thursday morning, we will actually
see slightly above normal values for most of the area with lows
ranging from the upper teens and lower 20s north, to the
mid/upper 20s south.
Surface high pressure then moves into the region on Thursday as an
upper ridge approaches. Temperatures will remain above normal
through the day under plenty of sunshine with highs ranging from the
upper 20s and lower 30s north, to the upper 30s and lower 40s south.
The ridge axis then crosses the forecast area Thursday night into
Friday morning, transitioning us back into southwest flow aloft. The
first part of the day on Friday will mainly be dry but the next
shortwave trough approaches by the mid to late afternoon hours which
will lead to increasing precipitation chances. For now, the best
guess is that it should be warm enough for mostly rain outside of
the mountains, but quite a bit can still change this far out and it
will be a system to watch in case we trend a bit colder. Given the
progressive nature of the system and the unorganized/split-flow
appearance of the trough, eventual QPF amounts will likely not be
overly impressive.
Precipitation chances will diminish a bit Friday night, but some low
to medium chances hang on before the next wave and frontal system
pushes into New England on Saturday. Precipitation Saturday looks to
mainly be rain again, but we could see a transition to snow Saturday
night across the north behind the cold front that moves through.
Most guidance then has us drying out at the end of the weekend and
into the next week but some mountain snow may hang around on Sunday
depending on how the pattern evolves.
Highs should remain above normal on Friday, mainly ranging from the
mid 30s to mid 40s across the entire forecast area. On Saturday, we
even have a shot to see some lower 50s across southern New Hampshire
and portions of coastal Maine. That being said, NBM temperature
spread remains fairly high on Saturday. As an example, the 25th to
75th percentile spread for highs at Gray on Saturday afternoon
ranges from 38 to 49. We should then see a cooling trend Sunday and
into the next work week.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...IFR to MVFR conditions improve as snow ends from
west to east through the early morning hours. VFR returns to
most terminals today, but RKD likely holds onto MVFR ceilings
much of the day. IFR returns tonight, spreading from southwest
to northeast with snow through the evening. Sleet and freezing
rain are then likely late this evening and overnight across
southern and coastal terminals. Precip ends from southwest to
northeast through the morning on Wednesday, with MVFR to VFR
likely returning to most terminals by the late morning to early
afternoon hours. HIE likely holds onto MVFR conditions through
the day for ceilings and snow showers.
Long Term...Conditions should start seeing some improvement Wednesday
evening into Wednesday night with VFR for Thursday. Lower ceilings
likely hang on at HIE at least through Thurs AM. Another system
could bring more restrictions to the region Friday and/or
Saturday with SN transitioning to RA.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...A weak area of low pressure organizes in the Gulf
of Maine tonight, and exits tomorrow morning. High pressure then
gradually builds across the waters tomorrow as conditions
remains below SCA levels.
Long Term...SCA conditions could be ongoing Wednesday evening and
into the overnight hours with breezy winds out of the W-NW. High
pressure builds in for Thursday before another couple of systems
approach Friday and Saturday.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Wednesday for MEZ007>009-012>014-033.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Wednesday for MEZ018>028.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Wednesday for NHZ001>004.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Wednesday for NHZ005>015.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Clair
SHORT TERM...Clair
LONG TERM...Cornwell/Hargrove
AVIATION...
MARINE...
