Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
635 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Snow amounts have been lowered slightly, but significant
accumulation is still expected areawide.
- Ice accretion amounts have increased in the ridges,
particularly in northern West Virginia ridges.
- Still despite these changes, warning criteria will still be
easily reached according to the trends.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The Winter Storm Warning continues. Significant snow
accumulations are still forecast, but sleet and freezing rain
chances have increased in the ridges, particularly in northern
West Virginia.
2) A prolonged period of cold temperatures is forecast from today
and extending through next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The Winter Storm Warning continues. Significant snow
accumulations are still forecast, but sleet and freezing rain
chances have increased in the ridges, particularly in northern
West Virginia. This continues a bit into the PA ridges as well.
The large-scale pattern as advertised by the model suite has
not changed significantly with the upcoming winter storm. The
difference at this time resulted in just an inch or two less
than the last run of the models. Most locations are still
expected to get to at least 8 inches if not 10 in most cases.
Arctic air has solidly arrived and resides over much of the
forecast area now. Upstream, shortwaves originating over the
northern Plains and southern Rockies will begin to phase as they
approach the Mississippi River Valley Sunday/Sunday night.
Surface low pressure develops along the Gulf Coast Saturday
night and lifts northeastward on Sunday, eventually handing off
to a developing Atlantic Coast low by Monday morning. Inverted
troughing pokes northward into the Middle and Upper Ohio Valley
Saturday night and Sunday. On the eastern side of this,
southeast flow and a decent southerly 850mb jet will support
warming aloft mainly to the south and east of Pittsburgh on
Sunday. With increased confidence in this, greater coverage and
amounts of freezing rain and sleet have been introduced. This is
particularly true in the higher terrain of northern West
Virginia, where one to two tenths of ice accretion may occur,
along with a period of sleet. This has cut down the snow
accumulations in this region.
Overall, moisture and lift remain impressive overall with this
system. We still expect a coupled upper jet structure, layered
frontogenesis, and the inverted trough to support strong lift.
Precipitable water is forecast to reach around the 90th
percentile level as compared to late January climatology as
well. So, overall liquid equivalent totals of 1 to 2 inches are
still a good bet. With the further northward extent of warm air
aloft, snow-to-liquid ratios have trended down slightly, which
was the main factor in lowering storm total snowfall amounts.
Nevertheless, a widespread significant snowfall is still
forecast across the region with high confidence.
Here are the latest 48-hour ensemble-based probabilities for
48-hour snow totals through 7 AM Monday. They are similar to
previous model runs overall, but probabilities for the higher-
end accumulations have decreased slightly:
Given the lower expected SLRs, there remains a decent chance of
a heavier, wetter snow, especially near and south of Pittsburgh.
Also, given low SLRs and increased chances for freezing rain,
the chance of power outage impacts is increasing in the higher
elevations, particularly in northern West Virginia. We will
need to continue to monitor precipitation-type trends and
adjust accordingly. However, there is high confidence in Winter
Storm Warning-level impacts in any case. The timing of the
heaviest snow still appears to be during Sunday morning south of
I-70, and late morning Sunday through Sunday evening north of
I-70. Cold northwesterly flow and the crossing parent upper
trough could result in lingering snow into Monday. The only
concern might be the onset time of the winter precip as the
ensembles have trended later at onset and the amount of dry air
in place over the area could compound that. Will leave the
headline timing as set at 00Z Sunday.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts as this system
approaches, as widespread impacts to travel and daily life are
highly likely Sunday into Monday.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A prolonged period of cold temperatures is forecast this morning
and extending through next week.
Behind the crossing arctic boundary, temperatures will begin to
fall through the remainder of the afternoon. Tonight will
feature the coldest temperatures of the season thus far, between
5 below and 5 above zero across the region. Although wind will
not be significant, it will be enough to push wind chills to
between 10 and 20 below for the majority of the region. The Cold
Weather Advisory remains in effect from this afternoon into
Saturday morning.
Widespread and prolonged cold is still forecast to continue
through next week. Although the warm surge on Sunday may push
high temperatures into the 20 to 30 degree range, a reinforcing
cold shot behind the storm system, along with deep upper
troughing, will keep very cold temperatures in the region Monday
through Friday, and perhaps beyond. Highs will be mainly in the
teens with lows in the single digits. Wind chills are expected
to range from 0 to 10 below, especially during the nighttime and
early morning hours. In addition to the hazardous cold, these
conditions will also promote the development of river ice.
During this relatively long period of well below normal mean
daily temperatures, infrastructure problems (frozen pipes,
etc) remain a concern.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES...
1) VFR continues until snow begins this evening
2) Impactful winter storm Saturday night through Sunday night
brings significant impacts to area airports in prolonged IFR and
lower restrictions
------------------------------------------------------------
VFR continues this morning through this afternoon as upper
level clouds increase and gradually lower from south to north.
Light and variable winds are expected to veer and generally
align from the E/NE by this afternoon although speeds will
remain near 5 kts.
A winter storm will bring significant impacts to the region
Saturday night through Monday as low pressure tracks across the
Ohio Valley. The first flakes arrive after 00z Sunday starting
from SW to NE. VIS restrictions likely take hold first before
the surface air saturates and CIGs begin to drop.
With saturation, widespread IFR and lower restrictions are
expected to envelop the region in snow through the day on
Sunday. The snow intensity will be moderate to heavy at times
with a prolonged period of reduced visibility and low ceilings.
The most likely time of 1/2 to 1 inch per hour snowfall rates
(and associated LIFR to VLIFR conditions in said heaviest rates)
is roughly between 15z Sunday through 00z on Monday. It is
likely that most airports across our region will see a
widespread 8-15 inches of snow with some localized higher
totals. Sleet and freezing rain may possibly mix in at MGW
lowering snowfall accumulation and possibly totaling between a
glaze and 0.10" of ice. This system will likely create
widespread, significant impacts to airport and aviation
operations with the worst of the impacts coming in the daytime
hours on Sunday.
Outlook... In the wake of the synoptic snow event, snow squalls
are possible on Monday bringing localized, periodic
restrictions. Otherwise, some cig restrictions could continue
into Tuesday under broad upper troughing and cold air aloft.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A winter storm and anomalously cold airmass will challenge some
area records for daily maximum snowfall, daily cold
temperatures, and duration of cold temperatures. Various
snowfall and cold records are listed below for reference.
Pittsburgh Top Daily Snowfall of All Time:
1) 23.6" - March 13th, 1993
2) 22.0" - December 17th, 1890
3) 16.5" - January 8th, 1884
4) 16.3" - March 3rd, 1942
5) 15.0" - March 5th, 1902
6) 12.7" - April 3rd, 1901
7) 12.5" - March 3rd, 1960
T7) 12.5" - November 9th, 1913
9) 12.4" - January 4th, 1994
10) 12.0" - January 22nd, 1966
Pittsburgh Top Daily Snowfall of All Time in January:
1) 16.5" - January 8th, 1884
2) 12.4" - January 4th, 1994
3) 12.0" - January 22nd, 1966
4) 11.2" - January 3rd, 1914
5) 11.0" - January 13th, 1964
Pittsburgh Top Daily Snowfall this Century:
1) 11.4" - February 5th, 2010
2) 9.7" - February 6th, 2010
3) 9.3" - December 16th, 2020
4) 8.8" - February 16th, 2003
5) 8.7" - March 21st, 2018
Pittsburgh Daily Snowfall Record for:
January 24th: 7.5" - 1899
January 25th: 5.2" - 2014
January 26th: 4.3" - 2015
Daily Cold Records at Risk of being Broken:
New Philadelphia, OH (1/24 Daily Low Record) - 14F (1963)
Most Consecutive Days with Temp below <=25F in Pittsburgh:
1) 15 days - ending February 3rd, 1961
2) 12 days - ending January 6th, 2018
T2) 12 days - ending December 26th, 1989
T2) 12 days - ending February 19th, 1958
5) 11 days - ending December 16th, 1958
T5) 11 days - ending February 2nd, 1936
Most Consecutive Days with Minimum Temp <=10F in Pittsburgh:
1) 14 days - ending February 2nd, 1936
T1) 14 days - ending January 17th, 1912
3) 11 days - ending December 24th, 1989
T3) 11 days - ending January 13th, 1981
5) 10 days - ending February 21st, 2015
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073-075-077.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to noon EST Monday
for PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ074-
076-078.
OH...Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
OHZ039>041-049-050-059-068-069.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to noon EST Monday
for OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ048-
057-058.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
WVZ001>004-012-021-509>511-513.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to noon EST Monday
for WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514.
Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ512-
514.
