Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
629 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 622 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026
- Well above normal temperatures continue through Saturday.
Cooler, more seasonal temperatures expected Sunday into early
next week.
- Low chances for showers and storms through Friday, increasing to
high chances on Saturday.
- The risk of severe storms or flooding is very low.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026
Thursday looks to be a warm, quite breezy day as we sit in a
fairly dry warm sector across the Tennessee Valley. Most action
will reside well to our north as a storm system moves across the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Unfortunately PWs appear to
be somewhat lower than Wednesday, so diurnal convection is
looking very isolated. You could technically argue that for
yesterday as well unless you lived in the Crossville area.
The storm system to our north will lift to the northeast into
Canada tomorrow night, through a trailing cold front will draw
closer to the Tennessee River. Though in a weakening state
(frontolysis for the weather savvy), the front will bring isolated
to scattered rain showers and perhaps a storm into Friday morning.
Additional afternoon showers/storms are possible mainly west of
I-65 on Friday, though most guidance isn`t too excited on
coverage.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026
The best chance for some drought relief will be Saturday
afternoon and evening as a subsequent disturbance aloft and cold
front move across the region. These will be more significant than
the Thursday system and a stronger band of showers and storms is
expected along the advancing cold front. However, this front and
line of convection should be somewhat transient, so rain amounts
of <1.25" are currently forecast. This isn`t drought busting, but
a good soaking of rain will be beneficial. A strong storm cannot
be ruled out with this system considering the approaching front
and increasing mid-level flow, but instability values are limited
by poor lapse rates and a somewhat dry representation of the
boundary layer on most guidance. We`ll see how things look when
hi-res guidance get within range.
Much cooler temperatures are forecast Sunday into early next
week, generally near seasonal values, in the low to upper 60s
each afternoon. We`ll be back on a warm-up by mid next week.
Unfortunately whatever rain we get on Saturday will have to hold
us over, potentially for several days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026
VFR conditions will continue for the taf period. South winds will
increase through this morning to 10-15 kts. Gusts through the
afternoon will be up to 25-30 kts. The gusts will subside after
03/00z with sustained winds decreasing to 5-10 kts. Gusts at BNA
will increase to 15-20 kts again after 03/15z.
