Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
549 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably warm weather will continue through this week.
Overnight lows will be nearer to average highs than to average
lows.
- Some isolated to scattered showers/storms this afternoon across
parts of the area, but no real widespread significant rainfall
is expected. Rain chances increase this weekend as a frontal
boundary stalls near the region.
- Sea fog will remain an intermittent issue near the southern
Galveston Bay area and adjacent Gulf waters for the next several
days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026
With some peaks of sun emerging and warming temperatures, we`re beginning
to see a few returns show up on radar. Would anticipate some
continued iso-sct shra/tstm development in the next 2-4 hours
with continued daytime destabilization. That said, the vast
majority of us won`t see much in the way of measurable precip.
Otherwise, unseasonably warm wx continues with daytime highs in
the 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s-low 70s to round out
the work week.
Mid-upper trof over the Pacific Northwest will dig sewd and over
the Rockies by Friday. The northern part of the trof will then
lift to the ne this weekend and its trailing surface front will
sag into the region Saturday. The southern portion of the mid-
upper trof will cutoff and retrograde swly off the Baja coast.
Deeper Gulf moisture will be pooling along and south of our
weekend surface front which should be stalling in the region as
it loses its southward momentum. These higher PW`s, in combination
with daytime heating, favorable upper jet positioning, and a
series of impulses moving across in the swly flow aloft should
provide pretty good chances of shra/tstms across the area Sat &
Sun.
Our cutoff low off Baja will kick out early next week and track
across Texas in the Tue-Wed timeframe and bring us another shot
of shra/tstms. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 549 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026
Showers (plus one lonely CG strike 15ish SM west of UTS) are
close enough to have a short VCSH mention in the UTS TAF before
rain winds down this evening, but dry everywhere else. Beyond
that, GLS is already at 1/4SM with sea fog, so the TAFs are
largely a slightly faster version of persistence, with conditions
degrading to low MVFR far north to LIFR at the coastal terminals.
Expect gradual return to VFR for the afternoon along with return
of breezy south/southeast winds.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1228 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026
A long fetch of southeast winds will persist over the coastal
waters through the weekend along with slowly building seas.
Warmer air moving over the cooler shelf waters near and off the
Galveston coast will be favorable for periods of haze and
fog...moreso in the Gulf waters...though it could intermittently
move into southern Galveston Bay during the overnight and early
morning hours. One limiting factor in terms of visibilities might
be slightly higher wind speeds that may mix the atmos enough to
keep the widespread dense variety in check. Rain chances increase
this weekend, though at the current time, it appears the best
chances will be inland near a stalled frontal boundary. 47
