Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
540 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An area of widespread moderate rain will continue advancing
into East Texas this morning, with most of the area drying out
by midday.
- Another more widespread round of showers and storms will affect
the area from Friday afternoon into Saturday morning, with
additional severe thunderstorms and localized flooding.
- A cold frontal passage on Saturday will bring a few days of
near or below normal temperatures from Easter Sunday into early
next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026
A line of marginally severe convection is making eastward progress
through the forecast area as of 1130pm, but will continue to
undergo a weakening trend as it encounters slightly drier air,
waning instability, and nocturnally increasing convective
inhibition. A borderline strong/severe wind threat could continue
to accompany localized segments of the line, although this
potential is expected to remain rather isolated. Showers and
thunderstorms will advance into the I-35 corridor after ~2am and
will linger through the morning commute, and will then shift
eastward after sunrise where scattered convection will persist
through the morning. An eventual dissipation of all convective
activity is forecast by midday, with a warm and tranquil afternoon
expected. Without a scouring frontal boundary accompanying
today`s convection, tonight will be warm and muggy with lows only
falling into the upper 60s. The southerly flow regime will recover
quickly, with stout theta-e advection taking place heading into
Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026
Another round of showers and thunderstorms is forecast from
Friday afternoon into the daytime Saturday, as a potent upper
trough traverses the Central Plains. Stronger instability will be
in place preceding this system`s arrival, mainly owing to
increased low-level moisture content with dewpoints climbing into
the 65-70F range. A subtle southern stream impulse will begin to
phase with the deeper mid-level system on Friday afternoon, and
this lead wave may contribute to open warm sector convective
development within the forecast area prior to the arrival of the
large-scale synoptic boundaries. This activity would likely only
be isolated to scattered in coverage given the lack of a well-
defined organizing boundary, but could be capable of at least
marginal strong/severe hazards.
Late Friday night into Saturday, this system`s trailing cold
front will be pulled southward into the forecast area. The
boundary itself will be accompanied by the most widespread
convective coverage, some of which is likely to reach
strong/severe levels with hail and wind threats. In addition,
rich moisture content characterized by near-record PW values of
about 1.8" will support heavy rainfall and localized flooding,
especially given shear/flow vectors that will be rather parallel
to the front`s southwest-northeast orientation. Localized flash
flooding will be of concern between midnight and noon as the front
slowly advances southward through the entire forecast area before
exiting later in the day.
In the wake of Saturday`s frontal passage, much cooler and
predominantly rain-free weather will prevail from Easter Sunday
through the early portion of next week with temperatures near or
slightly below normal. Highs will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s,
with overnight lows in the 40s and lower 50s. A return to more
active weather is forecast in the Day 7-10 time period as deep
upstream troughing takes shape heading into mid April.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026
Showers and thunderstorms have mostly exited the TAF sites to the
east as of 11z, although Waco will remain affected by persistent
rainfall through about 15z until this activity shifts southeast.
In the wake of light precipitation, MVFR/IFR cigs are likely to
fill in which will prevail through the morning before
lifting/scattering to VFR by midday. Breezy south winds will also
exist through most of the daytime and into tonight, with another
stratus intrusion occurring towards the tail end of the TAF
period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
