Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
159 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unsettled weather pattern through Thursday with breezy
south/southwest winds and multiple chances for showers.
- Dry with overnight lows falling into the 30s and low 40s
Thursday onward.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler and wetter pattern persists through the week with
temperatures near seasonal normals and multiple chances for
showers. Drier conditions expected over the weekend into early
next week with chilly overnight lows and areas of frost.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today (Wednesday) and Thursday: An area of low pressure sitting west
of Vancouver Island will continue to direct moisture into the region
bringing intermittent chances for showers and isolated mountain
thunderstorms. With CAPE values looking rather unimpressive in the
100-200 J/kg range, any thunderstorms that develop will be weak and
short-lived. Breezy south/southwest winds will persist through this
evening over the Columbia Basin and Okanogan Valley with gusts of 20
to 25 mph, then will subside overnight into tomorrow. Chances (30 to
50%) for showers continue through Thursday primarily over the
Cascades, southeastern WA, northern mountains, and ID panhandle,
then we shift into a drier northerly flow regime Friday into early
next week as the offshore low moves inland over northern California
and Nevada.
Friday through Wednesday: A ridge of high pressure amplifying in the
Gulf of Alaska will place the Inland Northwest in an area of dry
northerly flow, bringing clear skies and decreased precipitable
water values. Afternoon high temperatures will stay fairly
consistent in the mid to upper 60s through Monday, then will warm a
few degrees into the low to mid 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight
low temperatures however will get noticeably colder without a
blanket of cloud cover and moisture in the atmosphere to insulate
the surface. Lows in the 30s and low 40s are expected across much of
the region Thursday night onward. Sunday night is looking like the
coldest night of the forecast period with widespread lows in the 30s
and some of the sheltered northern valleys falling into the mid to
upper 20s. Cooler temperatures will be beneficial for slowing down
regional fires. A shortwave dropping down from the north will graze
across the northeastern portion of the region Saturday briefly
bringing potential for showers to north ID, then dry conditions are
forecast through at least mid-next week. /RF
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through
the period. Next round of showers will track southwest to
northeast through the region Wednesday afternoon and evening
from 23Z to 06Z. Showers expected to linger through the night
over the southeastern portion of the region impacting PUW into
early Thursday morning.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Timing and location of showers through the day and early evening
come with moderate to low confidence and TAF amendments are
likely. High confidence of VFR conditions through the period.
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
