AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
127 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers are possible across southern portions of the area
through Tuesday, but a larger, stronger system could bring
widespread beneficial rain Tuesday night through Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 121 PM Monday...
An upper-level area of low pressure is exiting the Mississippi
Valley and moving eastward. A wide swath of rain and overcast
clouds can be seen moving across the southern Appalachians.
Across our area, clouds will remain widespread along and south
of I-64 today with some rain expected late today across the far
south. North of I-64 will be partly to mostly sunny skies. Areas
that see more sunshine today will likely reach the middle 60s
for afternoon highs, while areas stuck in the clouds may see
temperatures better than the 50s this afternoon.
This upper-level system will begin to transfer its energy off the
southeast coast Tuesday, but some lingering energy aloft will bring
at least small chances of rain across the area, with the best
chances across the south and the east. Skies will remain overcast
over the south and east, while some breaks of sun can be expected
over northern West Virginia and parts of southeast Ohio.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 121 PM Monday...
A much more potent upper-level low will drop southward from the
northern plains to the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys Tuesday
night into Wednesday, bringing a higher, more prolonged chance of
rain across the entire coverage area. Rain chances will be highest
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday as the core of the upper-level
low tracks through the Appalachians. Early indications from forecast
models suggest that anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of rain will be
possible Tuesday night through Thursday. Much of the state remains
in some kind of drought category, especially the eastern part of the
state. This rain will be largely beneficial to the current drought
situation.
Daytime temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday will remain well
below normal with highs in the upper 40s across the mountains and
the 50s in the lowlands. Average highs for this time of year are
typically the upper 50s in the mountains and the lower to middle 60s
in the lowlands.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 121 PM Monday...
The aforementioned low pressure system will exit into the mid-
Atlantic and northeast Friday with a west-northwest flow across our
area. This will leave us with plenty of clouds and well-below normal
daytime temperatures heading into the weekend. Continued waves of
energy traversing around the base of the upper-level trough will
keep showers in the forecast throughout the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 125 PM Monday...
VFR conditions are largely expected to continue the rest of
today, but temporary MVFR ceilings or visibility may be possible
in any showers that pass through the southern terminals (KHTS,
KCRW, KBKW). Overnight, MVFR low stratus may impact some of the
terminals along with intermittent showers. The terminal most
likely to affected by low ceilings is KBKW.
East-southeasterly winds will remain breezy through the TAF
period. Overnight, LLWS will be possible at KEKN due to stronger
winds aloft.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions may vary during times of
showers.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible in rain Tuesday night through Thursday.
