Tropical Storm Pena Discussion Number 21 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP042026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Wed Nov 11 2026

Over the last several hours, the structure of Pena has degraded and the most recent visible satellite imagery shows that the low-level center is exposed and to the southwest of the bulk of the convection. The low-level center is moving faster toward the west than the mid-level circulation, which is why the bulk of the deep convection is now located well to the east-northeast of the center. The current subjective Dvorak fixes from both JTWC and HFO are T2.5/35 kt, however the UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates are in the range of 27-42 kt. The initial intensity is being held at 40 kt for this advisory, which could be a little generous at this time.

Pena`s current motion is estimated to be 265/14 kt. High pressure centered over the subtropical Central Pacific continues to be the main steering mechanism, however the system is starting to accelerate westward and should continue to accelerate over the next couple of days. The current NHC track is similar to the previous track, with a small adjustment to the left of the previous track based on a blend of the GDMI and HCCA forecast aids.

The current environment for Pena still has very warm waters, a good amount of moisture, and low vertical wind shear, but given the poor initial structure, strengthening is not expected. Instead, the cyclone is likely to maintain its intensity through tonight. By Thursday, a general weakening trend is expected as shear increases slightly and environmental moisture decreases slightly. These less favorable conditions are expected to persist over the system and the aforementioned increase in forward speed should result in the dissipation within the next few days, as the storm degrades into an open trough. Some model guidance indicates that dissipation could occur sooner than the current forecast indicates. The current NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast, with dissipation moved up to 60 h, based on the model surface fields.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 9.9N 169.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 10.0N 171.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 10.2N 174.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 10.5N 177.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 10.6N 179.6E 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Katz/Hagen