Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 200 PM MST Fri Oct 02 2026

The structure of Rachel has not changed appreciably since the previous advisory. A ragged, cloud-filled eye can still be seen on visible satellite imagery. The cloud pattern can also be described as having a large central dense overcast or embedded center, with the deep convection spanning roughly 200 n mi in diameter. The latest subjective intensity estimate from TAFB is T4.5/77 kt, and the latest objective estimates from UW-CIMSS range from about 77-99 kt. The initial intensity is lowered slightly to 90 kt for this advisory, as a compromise of the subjective and objective estimates.

The cyclone is still moving slowly westward at 265/4 kt and has made its closest approach Socorro Island, passing about 30 to 35 n mi north of the station, which recorded winds of 53 kt gusting to 74 kt and a minimum pressure 982.6 mb. This data fits in nicely with a pair of recent ASCAT passes over Rachel from around 1700 UTC. The previous operational radii didn`t need much adjusting since the ASCAT passes showed very similar radii to what we were carrying.

This slow westward motion is expected to continue with a gradual increase in forward speed over the weekend and into early next week as a mid-level ridge builds to the north. A gradual bend toward the west-northwest is forecast by Monday as the ridge begins to weaken. The track guidance remains in fair agreement on this scenario, although some differences remain in the timing of the increase in forward speed by early next week. The latest NHC track forecast is just a hair north of the previous prediction and lies near the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids. The NHC forecast is still about 30 miles to the left (or south) of the Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean, especially from hour 24 to 96.

The hurricane`s structure hasn`t changed much in the past 6 hours, and the guidance hasn`t changed much either on this cycle, so no major changes are made to the NHC intensity forecast. Over the next 36 hours, moderate northeasterly wind shear could affect Rachel some. Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are forecast to decrease along the hurricane`s path during that time from 29 to 27C as Rachel encounters the cold wake from Hurricane Polo. Gradual weakening is forecast during this period. After that time, sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) should increase slightly to 28C along Rachel`s path as it moves out of Polo`s cold wake, but the cyclone will be moving into a drier mid-level environment. The competing factors are expected to lead to little change in strength during the 36- to 72-hour period, and NHC continues to flatline Rachel at 70 kt during that time. In 4-5 days, Rachel should cross the 26C SST isotherm while it reaches an even drier mid-level airmass, and the system is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast lies toward the higher end of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 19.3N 111.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 19.4N 111.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 19.7N 112.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 20.0N 113.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 20.2N 114.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 20.3N 115.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 20.5N 116.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 21.0N 120.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 22.0N 123.3W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$ Forecaster Hagen