Tropical Storm Vance Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 900 PM CST Wed Oct 21 2026

Satellite imagery indicates that Vance continues to become better organized, with an expanding area of deep convection over the circulation and cloud-top temperatures as cold as -80 degrees C. The latest subjective intensity estimate from TAFB is T2.5/35 kt, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 32 to 43 kt. Based on these estimates and the improving satellite presentation, the initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt.

The initial motion is estimated at 290/4 kt. The storm will begin to slow down as it turns northwest and then north-northwest, steered along the southern and western periphery of a mid-level ridge located over Mexico. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, with a slight eastward adjustment at days 4 and 5 toward the latest GDMI, HCCA, and TVCN consensus aids. However, considerable cross-track spread remains among the guidance solutions at longer forecast ranges, likely related to differences in how the models depict the evolving synoptic pattern near the western United States. Consequently, confidence in the extended portion of the track forecast remains lower than normal.

Environmental conditions appear very favorable for significant strengthening during the next couple of days, with warm sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and plenty of deep-layer moisture. SHIPS RII, DTOPS, and SDCON guidance continue to be supportive, suggesting over a 50 percent probability of extreme RI over the next 3 days, indicating a high-confidence scenario for a major hurricane to develop. Given the favorable environment and elevated rapid intensification probabilities, the updated NHC intensity forecast explicitly calls for rapid intensification during the next 2 to 3 days. By day 4, Vance will begin to experience increased vertical wind shear while moving into slightly drier mid-level air, suggesting a weakening trend thereafter.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 9.6N 100.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 9.8N 101.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 10.4N 102.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 10.9N 102.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 11.5N 103.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 12.3N 103.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 13.5N 104.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 15.4N 105.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 16.7N 105.4W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$ Forecaster Pierce/Gibbs