Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
929 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) An Arctic airmass remains in place tonight with low wind
chill values and lingering flurries in the Allegheny
Mountains.
- 2) A strong coastal low will bring gusty winds, bitter wind
chills, and potential for snow this weekend.
- 3) Temperatures warm above freezing ahead of a slight chance
of snow showers next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...An Arctic airmass remains in place tonight with
low wind chill values and lingering flurries in the Allegheny
Mountains.
Sprawling Arctic high pressure remains across the middle of the
continent with longwave troughing across the east. Any residual
flurries along and west of the Alleghenies have tapered off.
Further, winds will also diminish tonight, reducing impacts from
blowing and drifting snow.
Elsewhere, another cold night is in store, particularly as winds
diminish into the night. Based on plugging observations into the
previous hours of the forecast, conditions are slightly milder
than expected. However, given dew points near 0 degrees and
light winds overnight, temperatures should drop rather quickly.
This will particularly be the case in locations that fully
decouple in light of the expansive snowpack. These areas could
see temperatures drop to around 0 degrees overnight. One
exception will be the I-64 corridor, where mid level clouds will
start to thicken tonight. Otherwise, the light winds and
temperatures in the single digits to low teens will result in
wind chill values on either side of 0, with -10 to -15 along
the ridges. Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect for parts
of the area. As referenced on the previous discussion, locations
that don`t have advisories were omitted due to the lighter
winds preventing the criteria of 0 (Virginia Piedmont) and -10
(Shenandoah Valley/Potomac Highlands) from being met.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong coastal low will bring gusty winds,
bitter wind chills, and potential for snow this weekend.
A trough swinging south through the Mississippi Valley Friday
will form into a closed low across the southeast Saturday before
moving off the coast Sunday. A surface low will develop near the
Carolina coast Saturday and rapidly deepen as it moves
northeastward Sunday. Confidence continues to increase that the
bulk of snow with this anomalous system will remain south and
east of the area with this system, but it is still something to
watch since we will be on the northwestern gradient. Some warm
advection snow may develop along the I-64 corridor as early as
midday Friday. If it were to occur, it may be intermittent and
very light in nature. The main period for the synoptic snow
would be Saturday into Sunday morning. The greatest chance for
accumulating snow is across the I-64 corridor to Fredericksburg
and southern Maryland. A relatively sharp cutoff is expected, so
it`s possible most of the area remains dry, or there could be
some light accumulations into the Baltimore/Washington metro. At
least for now, the higher end scenarios are looking unlikely. A
period of upslope snow could occur Sunday along the Alleghenies
as the system departs, but for now precipitation amounts look
light.
Winds will strengthen as the low deepens off the coast Saturday
night into Sunday. How much so will depend on the track and
strength of the low. It`s possible Wind Advisories may
eventually be needed, especially in some of the higher
elevations and perhaps along the Chesapeake Bay (where a Gale
Watch has been issued). Otherwise these winds will only amplify
the wind chill values as the Arctic airmass remains in place.
Speaking of which...the risk for Cold Advisories is much more
marginal for Friday night. Increasing clouds may hold
temperatures up, and winds will be fairly light for a majority
of the night. The period of greatest concern is Saturday night
into Sunday morning when the strong winds overlap with
temperatures in the single digits and teens. Cold Advisories
will likely be needed, and some areas could need Extreme Cold
Warnings. Wind chills may not rise above 0 in some areas until
Sunday afternoon. While winds will remain gusty in some areas
Sunday night, temperatures may actually be a little higher.
However, some additional Cold Advisories will likely be needed.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures warm above freezing ahead of a
slight chance of snow showers next week.
Surface high pressure from the south will bring rising temperatures
early next week. High temperatures across the central and northern
portions of the area will rise above freezing for the first time in
over a week. Highs on Monday will be in the upper teens
(Alleghenies) to the upper 30s. On Tuesday, high temperatures range
from the low 20s to the low 40s from north to south across the CWA.
Despite warming daytime temperatures, overnight lows continue to drop
into the teens areawide.
Additionally, a low pressure system tracking across the Ohio River
Valley westward will bring a slight chance of snow showers to the
forecast area. Low precipitation chances (less than 30%) combined
with marginal temperatures (mainly along and south of I-66) yields
uncertainty regarding the snowfall forecast. Will continue to
monitor this system as it gets closer.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The north to northwesterly winds have been a bit slower to
diminish than expected. However, these should drop to around 5
knots or less before midnight. Overall, winds will shift a bit
more northwesterly Friday with increasing clouds. There`s a
small chance for light snow at CHO during the afternoon and into
the night. There appeared to be enough signal to include a
PROB30 group starting at 20Z on Friday.
Low pressure will develop to the south Saturday into Saturday
night. Light snow may overspread the area, although the
northern extent is uncertain. The lowest chance of seeing snow
at all is at MRB, while the highest chance of accumulating snow
is at CHO. Snow would bring sub-VFR visibility. As of now, the
greatest risk for MVFR to IFR ceilings is at CHO. Northerly
winds will steadily increase, perhaps reaching 25-30 kt Saturday
night.
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected Sunday and Monday. The
exception will be the metro terminals (KBWI, KDCA, and KMTN) where a
slight chance of snow showers Sunday morning may lead to sub-VFR
conditions. Winds will remain elevated during this timeframe,
with gusts of up to 25-30 kts NW possible at terminals through
Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories continue into the night along portions
of the Chesapeake Bay as NNW winds and cold air should allow
enhancement of the winds across the wider waters. Sub-SCA level
winds return Friday. Winds will shift to the north late Friday
into Saturday as coastal low pressure develops offshore.
Advisories will likely be needed the second half of Friday night
and Saturday.
The low will rapidly deepen off the coast Saturday night into
Sunday, then rapidly track northeast near the Eastern Seaboard
through early Monday. The strongest winds will arrive Saturday
night through Sunday evening as the low pressure makes its
closest approach to the local waters. Gale conditions are
becoming increasingly likely, with gusts of at least 35-40 kt
over most of the waters, so a Gale Watch has been issued. Some
model guidance indicates gusts to near storm force (48 kt) are
possible in the open waters of the central to southern
Chesapeake Bay. Small Craft Advisories will likely continue
Monday in NW flow as the pressure gradient will remain tight.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As low pressure rapidly strengthens off shore Saturday night
into Sunday, strong northerly winds may lead to blowout tide
conditions.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for DCZ001.
MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for MDZ004>006-
008-011-013-014-016>018-501-503>510.
Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for
MDZ008.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for VAZ053-054-
501-503-505>508-526-527.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for WVZ501-503-
505.
MARINE...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for ANZ530.
Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for
ANZ530>543.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ531-537-
539-540.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ532>534-541-
543.
