Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
600 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and hot conditions this week will lead to worsening drought
impacts and an increased risk of field fires.
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.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Midday surface map indicated a ridge axis stretched from the
central Great Lakes southwest to TX. Light to calm winds and
unseasonably warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s were found
across central IL. 50s dewpoints made the heat a bit more
tolerable.
12z model suite continues to offer little hope for a break in
this pattern through the end of the week. Upper level ridging
looks to grip the region for the next several days, and with the
dry air warming efficiently, highs around 90F are likely through
at least Tuesday, then mid-upper 80s beyond. Large diurnal ranges
will occur in the low RH airmass, so lows in the 50s will be
favored through the period. Some ensemble guidance hints at upper
waves starting to suppress the ridge by next weekend. However,
models are often too quick to break down these ridges. NBM
continues to advertise dry and well above normal temperatures
through next weekend.
The result of another week of this pattern will be worsening
drought impacts across all of central/SE IL. In addition, field
fires will also be a concern as harvest activity peak. Light
winds through the forecast should mitigate the risk of rapidly
spreading fire.
25
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.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
VFR conditions through the period, with little to no cloud cover.
Winds light and variable overnight, but will be more sustained out
of the northeast on Monday.
