Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A strong cold front will move through the area this evening
accompanied by a squall line. Some of these storms will have the
potential to be severe with damaging straight line winds, large hail
and a couple of tornadoes.
- Strong northwest winds will develop behind the front Wednesday. A
Wind Advisory is in effect for land areas and a Gale Warning is in
effect for the coastal waters.
- Much cooler temperatures expected Wednesday through Friday with
a gradual warming trend through the weekend before another front
moves through the region Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
Low level moisture is increasing this afternoon on East
Southeasterly winds ahead of an upper level trof diving quickly
across the midwest that will push a cold front through the region
this evening. A QLCS is expected to develop along the leading edge
of the front. While forecast shear and instability looks somewhat
unimpressive, some organized embedded supercells will be possible
that could produce hail, damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes.
SPC has increased the severe risk category across Southeast Texas
and western Louisiana to slight (2 out of 5) risk with south central
Louisiana remaining in a marginal (1 out of 5) risk. The QLCS is
expected to push through at a rapid pace with most areas seeing rain
for only an hour or so.
Northwesterly flow will develop in the wake of the front late
tonight into early Wednesday morning advecting in a much cooler
airmass. The gradient will tighten after sunrise Wednesday with
winds increasing to 20-25 MPH with gusts up to 40 MPH. Holiday
decorations should be secured or taken down lest they become
decorations on another house. A wind advisory has been issued from 9
AM until 6 PM CDT. Winds will be even stronger offshore and the Gale
Watch has been upgraded to a Gale Warning for frequent gusts over 35
knots and seas up to 11 feet. The winds will lessen after sunset
Wednesday evening, but will remain around 10 knots overnight into
Thursday morning.
High pressure will build into the region Thursday from central Texas
allowing winds to become light and variable. The combination of the
light winds and clear skies will provide favorable radiational
cooling conditions that will allow temperatures to fall into the low
to mid 40s Friday morning.
Jones
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
High pressure will remain overhead Friday into Friday
night keeping skies clear and winds light and variable. By Saturday
winds will turn back out of the southeast as the high slides east of
the region. Low level moisture will increase Saturday evening ahead
of another cold front that will push through the region Saturday
night into Sunday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible early Sunday morning with the passage of the front. The
airmass associated with this boundary isn`t going to be materially
different from the one already in place, but will keep overnight
lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s and day time highs in the low to
mid 70s through early next week.
Jones
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
VFR conditions and generally light southerly winds will prevail
this afternoon. A cold front will approach and push through the
region from northwest to southeast this evening accompanied by a
squall line. The squall line will move through the terminals
quickly but could produce very strong straight line winds and hail
as it does so. Timing included in TAFS is based on the latest high
resolution guidance, but is subject to change as the front
approaches. Winds will increase and shift out of the northwest
behind the front with skies clearing during the predawn hours
Wednesday. Winds will increase further after sunrise Wednesday to
20+ knots gusting to 30 knots.
Jones
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
A cold front will push through the coastal waters this
evening into early Wednesday morning with strong offshore flow
developing in it`s wake. A Gale Warning has been issued from late
tonight through Wednesday evening as sustained winds of around 30
knots are expected with frequent higher gusts of up to 40 knots.
Seas will also increase to 5-11 feet Wednesday. Winds and seas will
begin to diminish Thursday becoming light Friday before turning back
onshore Saturday ahead of another frontal boundary that will push
through the region Saturday night into Sunday turning winds back
offshore through early next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
Light southerly winds will continue today ahead of a
cold front that will push through the region this evening into early
Wednesday morning accompanied by a squall line. Strong northwesterly
winds of 20-25 MPH gusting up to 40 MPH will develop behind the
front Wednesday pushing much cooler and drier air into the region.
Minimum RH values Wednesday will fall to 30-40% Wednesday afternoon.
Conditions are not expected to reach Red Flag Warning criteria, but
a Fire Danger Statement has been issued for Wednesday due to an
enhanced risk of wildfires. Winds will diminish Thursday and Friday
before turning back out of the south Saturday ahead of another cold
front expected to move through the area Saturday night.
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ027>033-044-
045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ180-201-
259>262-515-516-615-616.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Thursday
for GMZ430-432-435-436.
Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Thursday for
GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.
