Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
210 PM PDT Sat Oct 25 2025
.DISCUSSION...
Key Points:
* Strong winds continue today/tonight
- Today: High Wind Warning
- Through Tonight: Wind Advisory for coastal ranges,
eastside areas, and Shasta Valley Saturday
* Multi-day rainfall event diminishing Monday
- Heaviest amounts across coastal Curry County
- Not expecting widespread flooding (rivers too low)
- Thunderstorms today: Low end chance for a quick
spin-up along and near the coast this afternoon
* Nuisance type flooding possible
- Ponding on roadways
- Small creeks/streams could experience localized flooding
* High elevation snowfall mainly above 4500 ft
Further Details:
A very broad area of cyclonic rotation over the Gulf of Alaska will
continue to dominate our weather pattern for the next couple days.
A notable H5 wave ejecting out ahead of this main center of low
pressure is noted with a strong surface low heading towards the
PacNW. Pressure gradients along and near the coast were strong this
morning but we are seeing those gradients relax some and will
continue to weaken through this evening. The high wind warning will
end later this afternoon with wind advisories ending tonight. We may
be able to end the advisories earlier if trends continue.
Frontogenesis coupled with steep lapse rates, strong moisture
advection, and overall strong forcing aloft continues to bring
widepsread precipitation; however, we will see a break in activity
today as satellite shows a dry slot moving over the forecast area.
Curry County has seen amounts around 2.50"-3.50" for amounts that
started yesterday. Widespread stratiform rain expected tomorrow with
less thunderstorm potential.
Low level helicity and wind shear may briefly support updrafts this
afternoon which could lead to a quick spin-up as showers/storms move
onshore. This could enhance wind damage along and near the coast
where a high wind warning is already in place. This is a very low
end threat and there may be little to no lightning with these
showers/storms. Updrafts will struggle today, but this threat is a
non-zero chance.
Currently, rivers continue to run low, but we have seen some rises
with recent rainfall. However, this rises are not going to reach any
actionable stage so we are not expecting hazards from flooding.
That said, small creeks/streams could experience localized
flooding, especially in areas with poor drainage. Otherwise, most
of this event will be nuisance type flooding with ponding on
roadways.
For snowfall, impact continue to be across areas mainly above 4500
feet. Given wind gusts around 60 mph, there could be visibility
restrictions as well, but fortunately much of these areas are going
to be uninhabited. Ground temperatures are still a little warm and
rainfall preceding snowfall will make accumulations difficult at
first. The duration should help cool the column and ground
temperatures sufficient for accumulations to start later this
afternoon/evening and through Sunday for these higher elevations.
Also of concern will be highway 140 near Lake of the Woods where
amounts could be around 6 inches. Caution should be taken if
traveling through areas with snowfall because even small amounts of
snowfall on the road can lead to slippery conditions. There is high
confidence for snowfall rates of at least 1.0" per hour later
today/tonight with this probability peaking at 90% with
probabilities around 70-90 percent through Sunday morning.
Impacts will slowly diminish on Monday as high pressure starts to
build in over the region.
-Guerrero
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAFs)...
Moderate to strong winds along with low level wind speed shear
will be the main hazard into early this evening. Winds have
surfaced along the coast, including North Bend and at Medford and
Klamath Falls Terminal where Klamath Falls has a peak gust of
36kts. Winds will gradually diminish between 2-4z this evening as
a strong low centered north of the area moves inland over
northwest Washington and weakens.
Meanwhile a strong front will move through during the day, and
behind the front will be scatted to numerous convective showers
along with isolated thunderstorms over the marine waters, along
the coast and inland over Curry and Coos County. Right now, storms
should be confined to these areas. It`s possible a storm or two
could be in the vicinity of Roseburg and Medford terminals.
However, confidence on this is low and for now we`ll keep it our
of the Medford and Roseburg TAF`s, but this could change, so stay
tuned for the latest updates.
VFR conditions will be the predominate condition in a convective
environment, except for brief periods of MVFR ceilings and
visibility in heavier showers through 2-3z this evening. Despite
VFR being the prevailing condition, the higher terrain will be
partly obscured into early this evening.
Convective showers will linger tonight, but the atmosphere should
remain unstable enough to keep ceilings from lowering below VFR.
Snow levels will start out between 6000-7000 feet at the start of
the TAF period. lowering to 4500-5500 feet by 00Z, then remain at
4000-45000 feet through the end of the TAF period. Snow showers
are expected over the Cascades and eastside this evening and
tonight.
-Petrucelli
&&
.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Saturday, October 24,
2025...Satellite image shows a strong secondary low moving towards
the northwest Oregon coast. This are separate from the parent low
that is moving east to northeast into northwest Washington state.
The secondary low is one of bigger concern in that it will
contribute to strong southwest winds over the waters. Satellite
image also shows plenty of instability moving into the waters
which will raise the concern for isolated thunderstorms that could
produce wind gusts that could briefly reach storm force criteria
(48 kts or higher) into early this evening. The above mentioned
also raises the concern for waterspouts. These are things we`ll
have to monitor closely.
Additionally, seas will build further, becoming very high and
very steep peaking around 26-29 ft due to continued heavy west
swell and high wind waves. Winds ease this evening, but seas will
remain very high and very steep into Sunday morning, and a
Hazardous Seas Warning remains in effect once the Gale Warning
ends late this afternoon.
Models show another, but weaker low moving north of the waters
late tonight into Sunday morning, which could bring moderate to
occasionally south winds, especially north of Cape Blanco, and the
high res guidance shows this. This won`t change anything with
respect to the current headlines.
Overall conditions will improve Monday, with relatively calmer
conditions through Tuesday. A thermal trough will develop behind a
front Wednesday bringing moderate to occasionally strong north
winds south of Cape Blanco.
-Petrucelli
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 PM PDT Saturday, October 25, 2025...
Hazardous beach conditions will persist through the weekend.
Moderate to heavy long period west swell is already present
ranging from 23-26 ft. Since high wave heights are likely to last
through Sunday evening, the high surf advisory will remain into
Sunday evening to cover the threat. Impacts include large breaking
waves of 24-29 ft within the surf zone, which could inundate
beaches and low lying shorelines. Waves could wash over rocks and
jetties, beach erosion is possible, and exposed infrastructure may
be damaged. There is a high risk of sneaker waves during any
lulls in high surf. Conditions are expected to gradually improve
later Sunday evening into Sunday night.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ021-023-024-030-
031.
High Surf Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ021-022.
High Wind Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for ORZ021-022.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ027-028.
CA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ081-085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon
for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-
376.
