Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
218 AM MST Thu Nov 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Prolonged high winds will be possible Thursday through
Saturday. High Wind Warnings are in effect for portions of
southeast Wyoming on Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 218 AM MST Thu Nov 6 2025
Low to Mid level water vapor shows moisture still advecting in from
the Pacific Northwest and it shows the development of mountain waves
coming across the Central Rocky mountains (barely the clouds hides
most of it). This mountain wave activity will be the causation of
our windy day today. The GFS omega field is still trending strong
subsident flow over Arlington at 06 and over Bordeaux down to the
Summit around 12z. Given the 700mb jet was progged at 55 to 60 knots
during the morning hours and 500mb 50 to 55 knots the watches were
upgraded to warnings at their respective times to match the
subsident flow. East Laramie County was kept as a watch as there is
some uncertainty if the winds of the breaking mountains waves would
essentially "reach" that far to give us severe winds. This
uncertainty stems from the omega fields continuing to show rising
motion east of Carpenter and Gun Barrel from 15z to 21z and then
weak subsident flow from 21z to 00z when the 700mb winds slow down
to form a lull in intensity. So that area was left as a watch for
the next shift to decide with the new model runs if the watch needs
to be upgraded.
Besides bringing wind to the area, this shortwave will bring minor
precipitation to the high terrain. There will be enough mid-level
moisture for orographic lift to produce a few inches of snow above
9000 feet in the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges. Most of the Hi-res
models show some showers moving across Converse and Niobrara county
but at different intensities. The model soundings do show a bit of a
dry layer at the surface so any precipitation from weak showers
probably won`t reach the ground. However if the precipitation does
reach the ground it will likely wont be measurable. This shortwave
will drag a cold front along with it, leading to chilly highs in the
40s for areas west of the Laramie Range. The coldest air will be
trapped west of the Laramie Range, so areas to the east can still
expect above average temperatures in the 50s and 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MST Wed Nov 5 2025
At the start of the long term period, stronger winds will continue
into the weekend while temperatures take a nose dive as highs only
top out in the 40s across the CWA. The 500MB pattern becomes
northerly/northwesterly late on Friday as a shortwave dives south,
which will increase chances of precipitation. With drier air in
place coupled with mediocre upper level support, precipitation
chances will be confined to the higher terrain, where snow or a mix,
minimal accumulations, may occur. As this system pushes off to the
east, northerly upper level winds will usher in some cooler Canadian
air, hence the cooler temperatures for the weekend that was
mentioned earlier. The only thing of any concern, if you call it
that, will be the stronger winds in our known windier locations.
Which may elicit the need for high wind products, but will see how
things pan out over the next few runs of the numerical weather
models. What about temperatures, well, expect cooling temps into the
weekend with highs topping out in the 40s and lows bottoming out in
the teens by Sunday morning. Some changes in store next week as the
upper level pattern changes with a weak ridge pushing in, resulting
in a relatively benign weather pattern and warming temperatures,
with highs pushing back into upper 50s to low 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1025 PM MST Wed Nov 5 2025
VFR conditions are expected as mid to high based clouds push
into the region. Expect strong westerly winds gusting up to 45
knots for the Wyoming terminals and topping out around 35 knots
for the Nebraska terminals. Outside of KRWL, as surface winds
decrease briefly tonight however, winds aloft will remain strong
and wind shear will be an issue across the remaining terminals
tonight into early this morning.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for WYZ106-118.
High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for WYZ110.
High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for WYZ116-117.
High Wind Watch from 8 AM MST this morning through this
afternoon for WYZ119.
NE...None.
