Severe Center
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #0159 - Heavy Rainfall
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Area of Concern - Severe T-Storm
Area of Concern - Winter
Area of Concern - Heavy Rainfall
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0159
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 AM EDT Wed May 06 2026
Areas affected...Central AR, Southwest TN, Northern MS
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 060720Z - 061320Z
SUMMARY...Convection developing along and just north of a
southward-moving surface front will pose an isolated flash flood
threat through 13Z across portions of central AR into southwest TN
and northern MS. Fast storm motions parallel to the boundary will
allow for brief periods of training, with localized rainfall
totals of 2 to 3 inches possible where upscale growth occurs.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery and surface observations
indicate convection developing along and north of a surface
frontal boundary draped across central Arkansas into southwest
Tennessee and northern Mississippi. Ascent is being heavily driven
by strong frontogenesis in the surface to 925 mb layer, which is
fostering enhanced low-level convergence. Concurrently, strong 925
mb moisture transport is being directed squarely into this frontal
zone, providing ample fuel for precipitation production.
The thermodynamic environment is becoming increasingly supportive
of robust updrafts along the boundary. Recent mesoanalysis
indicates a modest destabilization trend, with MUCAPE values
increasing by roughly 400 J/kg over the past 3 hours. Absolute
MUCAPE values now range from 1000 to 2000 J/kg. The warm sector
ahead of the boundary remains strongly capped, effectively
confining the convective development and heavy rainfall threat to
the frontal zone itself or the immediate cool side to its north.
Individual cell motions are relatively fast from west to east.
Because these motions are largely aligned parallel to the
orientation of the frontal boundary, there is an inherent risk for
training convection. However, a key mitigating factor is the
continuous southward progression of the front itself, which should
serve to limit the duration of this training at any single
location.
Ultimately, the flash flood risk will depend heavily on the degree
of upscale convective development along and just behind the
advancing front. If sufficient consolidation occurs to maximize
the brief training window, localized rainfall totals of 2 to 3
inches are possible, which could overwhelm sensitive basins or
poor drainage areas. There are some signs of this beginning to
occur across central AR. Given the progressive nature of the
boundary and the fast individual cell motions, the overall flash
flood threat should generally remain isolated through 13Z.
Chenard
ATTN...WFO...HUN...LZK...MEG...OHX...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 35868789 35698689 35168615 34728757 34448992
34179209 34079284 34179331 34299379 34579379
34989272 35239181 35688956 35768878
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 AM EDT Wed May 06 2026
Areas affected...Central AR, Southwest TN, Northern MS
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 060720Z - 061320Z
SUMMARY...Convection developing along and just north of a
southward-moving surface front will pose an isolated flash flood
threat through 13Z across portions of central AR into southwest TN
and northern MS. Fast storm motions parallel to the boundary will
allow for brief periods of training, with localized rainfall
totals of 2 to 3 inches possible where upscale growth occurs.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery and surface observations
indicate convection developing along and north of a surface
frontal boundary draped across central Arkansas into southwest
Tennessee and northern Mississippi. Ascent is being heavily driven
by strong frontogenesis in the surface to 925 mb layer, which is
fostering enhanced low-level convergence. Concurrently, strong 925
mb moisture transport is being directed squarely into this frontal
zone, providing ample fuel for precipitation production.
The thermodynamic environment is becoming increasingly supportive
of robust updrafts along the boundary. Recent mesoanalysis
indicates a modest destabilization trend, with MUCAPE values
increasing by roughly 400 J/kg over the past 3 hours. Absolute
MUCAPE values now range from 1000 to 2000 J/kg. The warm sector
ahead of the boundary remains strongly capped, effectively
confining the convective development and heavy rainfall threat to
the frontal zone itself or the immediate cool side to its north.
Individual cell motions are relatively fast from west to east.
Because these motions are largely aligned parallel to the
orientation of the frontal boundary, there is an inherent risk for
training convection. However, a key mitigating factor is the
continuous southward progression of the front itself, which should
serve to limit the duration of this training at any single
location.
Ultimately, the flash flood risk will depend heavily on the degree
of upscale convective development along and just behind the
advancing front. If sufficient consolidation occurs to maximize
the brief training window, localized rainfall totals of 2 to 3
inches are possible, which could overwhelm sensitive basins or
poor drainage areas. There are some signs of this beginning to
occur across central AR. Given the progressive nature of the
boundary and the fast individual cell motions, the overall flash
flood threat should generally remain isolated through 13Z.
Chenard
ATTN...WFO...HUN...LZK...MEG...OHX...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 35868789 35698689 35168615 34728757 34448992
34179209 34079284 34179331 34299379 34579379
34989272 35239181 35688956 35768878