Orlando, FL
Orlando, FL Forecast Discussion
794
FXUS62 KMLB 190633
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
233 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026
- Warm and mainly dry today, isolated showers and lightning storms
are possible along the Treasure Coast this afternoon/evening
- Cold front arrives tonight, bringing gusty northeast winds into
Monday and gradually cooler air; short-lived rain chances
increase Monday, mainly south of Cape Canaveral
- Beach and boating conditions to deteriorate quickly Sunday night
and remain poor to hazardous through at least the middle of the
week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Today-Monday...A broad upper trough will advance from the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley today toward the U.S. East Coast on Monday.
Locally, a weak surface trough is forecast today ahead of an
approaching cold front. In combination with PW reaching 1.4-1.5"+
and a delayed east coast sea breeze, there is a low chance (20-30%)
of showers and an isolated lightning storm along the Treasure Coast
this afternoon/evening. CAM guidance builds SBCAPE to 1,500+ J/kg
here, with MLCAPE to 750-1,000 J/kg. In addition, a dry 725-475mb
layer could support DCAPE to 1,000+ J/kg. Less supportive lapse
rates exist, though, so confidence in storm development and
maintenance is low. This is something to watch as the east coast
breeze forms this afternoon, as a conditional threat for gusty winds
and lightning strikes could unfold.
Otherwise, mostly dry conditions will prevail for much of the area
as temperatures climb into the mid/upper 80s. A few locations will
approach 90 degrees but additional mid-high level clouds should put
the lid on temps going above the 90-degrees mark. This is in keeping
with what we have seen with high temperatures the last couple of
days, ending up a couple to a few degrees below NBM (closer to
NBM25). Winds will remain westerly inland, turning onshore at the
coast as the east coast breeze tries to form.
A moderate risk for rip currents exists today at the beaches. Always
swim near a lifeguard and never enter the water alone!
Tonight, the cold front approaches the northern portion of the area.
Winds veer north-northeasterly along and behind the front as the
pressure gradient starts to tighten. The most persistent gusts are
forecast closer to the coast but will spread inland Monday morning
onward, with peak values of 20-25 mph and occasional gusts to 30+
mph. Moisture builds along the coast and across the southern third
of the area tonight into Monday. This will support at least a low
chance for coastal showers overnight into Monday morning. An
increase in scattered showers and even a storm is possible Monday
afternoon along the Treasure Coast. NBM ProbThunder values generally
stay 30% or less, which is a bit generous considering the lack of
instability forecast.
Of greater certainty, beach conditions will become hazardous Sunday
night and continue that way through at least Monday. Rough surf and
an increased rip current risk is forecast, so entering the water
will be highly discouraged. Regarding temperatures, forecast highs
drop into the 70s to around 80 degrees to start the week. This is at
least 3-4 degrees below normal for mid April. Overnight lows are
expected to dip into the mid/upper 50s across the interior Monday
night into Tuesday morning.
Tuesday-Saturday...Guidance indicates a push of drier air arriving
Tuesday, with some 1-1.1" PW oscillating around a broad area of high
pressure mid to late week. Greater moisture recovery will have to
wait until Saturday or Sunday at least, which means a large part of
this extended forecast stays dry. Weak H5 height falls and shallow
moisture embedded in onshore flow could potentially support marine
showers approaching the coast beyond Wed/Thu, but measurable rain
will be hard to come by. Thus, the official forecast keeps
mentionable chances absent.
Breezy to gusty conditions are forecast again on Tuesday, especially
along the southern Space and Treasure Coasts. Wind speeds decrease a
bit Wednesday onward as the pressure gradient unwinds. Still, we
maintain some component of onshore flow through late week before
winds turn a bit more SSE on Saturday. The cooler high temps last us
through Wednesday before a warming trend resumes from Thursday
onward. At the beaches, rough surf and a high risk of rip currents
continues on Tuesday, especially from Cape Canaveral southward. A
moderate to high risk of rip currents is likely to persist through
at least Wednesday or Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Boating conditions remain favorable today, outside of isolated
showers and storms south of Sebastian Inlet. Seas generally 2-3 ft
with a light offshore wind this morning veering offshore as the east
coast breeze develops this afternoon. A conditional risk for
lightning storms capable of gusty winds exists along the Treasure
Coast this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, rain chances slowly
increase overnight into Monday along and behind a cold front.
This cold front will bring gusty northeast winds (20-25 kt) and
building seas late Sunday night into Monday, unfolding from north to
south. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued, starting just before
midnight Monday for the Volusia waters (0-60nm). The advisory
expands south to include the Brevard (Space Coast) waters (0-60nm)
and then the remaining Treasure Coast legs Monday morning. Hazardous
conditions are forecast to linger through at least Tuesday from Cape
Canaveral southward. Peak wave heights reach 10 ft in the Gulf
Stream Monday and Monday night before gradually decreasing north to
south on Tuesday.
Conditions improve mid to late week as high pressure builds
overhead. An isolated shower Wed/Thu onward cannot be ruled out, but
probabilities remain too low to include a mention of precipitation
at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026
VFR conditions are forecast to persist at all east central Florida
terminals. Light and variable winds early this morning will pick
up out of the west around 10 knots after 14Z. Along the coast, the
development of the east coast sea breeze will lead to winds at the
coastal terminals becoming more easterly after 18Z. Low chance for
VCSH at VRB southward after 18Z. Tonight, a cold front approaches
the Florida peninsula, causing winds to shift to out of the
north- northeast at 10 to 15 knots beginning at 00Z at LEE and
expanding southward as the front moves across the peninsula. Winds
are anticipated to increase in wind speeds into tomorrow.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026
One more day of mostly dry and warm conditions is expected before a
shift in the weather pattern arrives to start the new work week.
Highs will approach the upper 80s to 90 degrees Sunday afternoon
with light offshore winds turning onshore at the coast late in the
day. Humidity values are forecast to sink into the 30-35 percent
range, leading to some fire sensitive conditions. An isolated
lightning storm or two is possible along the Treasure Coast this
afternoon and evening.
A cold front arrives Sunday night, bringing gusty northeast winds to
the region into Monday. Gusts of 20-25 mph are possible Monday and
Tuesday with occasional gusts to 30 mph (especially along the
coast). Moisture briefly increases along and just behind the front,
supporting isolated to scattered showers along the coast, then
spreading inland mainly from Melbourne south through Monday
afternoon. A lightning storm cannot be ruled out, but lightning
chances are generally 25 percent or less. High pressure builds over
east central Florida through mid week, accompanied by lower
humidity values.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 88 65 77 60 / 10 10 10 0
MCO 89 67 79 59 / 10 10 10 0
MLB 85 69 78 65 / 20 20 20 0
VRB 86 68 79 65 / 30 30 40 10
LEE 88 64 80 56 / 10 10 0 0
SFB 89 66 79 57 / 10 10 10 0
ORL 89 67 80 59 / 10 10 10 0
FPR 87 68 80 64 / 30 30 50 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Tuesday
for AMZ550.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for
AMZ552.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
AMZ555-575.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday
for AMZ570.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
AMZ572.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Tollefsen
FXUS62 KMLB 190633
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
233 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026
- Warm and mainly dry today, isolated showers and lightning storms
are possible along the Treasure Coast this afternoon/evening
- Cold front arrives tonight, bringing gusty northeast winds into
Monday and gradually cooler air; short-lived rain chances
increase Monday, mainly south of Cape Canaveral
- Beach and boating conditions to deteriorate quickly Sunday night
and remain poor to hazardous through at least the middle of the
week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Today-Monday...A broad upper trough will advance from the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley today toward the U.S. East Coast on Monday.
Locally, a weak surface trough is forecast today ahead of an
approaching cold front. In combination with PW reaching 1.4-1.5"+
and a delayed east coast sea breeze, there is a low chance (20-30%)
of showers and an isolated lightning storm along the Treasure Coast
this afternoon/evening. CAM guidance builds SBCAPE to 1,500+ J/kg
here, with MLCAPE to 750-1,000 J/kg. In addition, a dry 725-475mb
layer could support DCAPE to 1,000+ J/kg. Less supportive lapse
rates exist, though, so confidence in storm development and
maintenance is low. This is something to watch as the east coast
breeze forms this afternoon, as a conditional threat for gusty winds
and lightning strikes could unfold.
Otherwise, mostly dry conditions will prevail for much of the area
as temperatures climb into the mid/upper 80s. A few locations will
approach 90 degrees but additional mid-high level clouds should put
the lid on temps going above the 90-degrees mark. This is in keeping
with what we have seen with high temperatures the last couple of
days, ending up a couple to a few degrees below NBM (closer to
NBM25). Winds will remain westerly inland, turning onshore at the
coast as the east coast breeze tries to form.
A moderate risk for rip currents exists today at the beaches. Always
swim near a lifeguard and never enter the water alone!
Tonight, the cold front approaches the northern portion of the area.
Winds veer north-northeasterly along and behind the front as the
pressure gradient starts to tighten. The most persistent gusts are
forecast closer to the coast but will spread inland Monday morning
onward, with peak values of 20-25 mph and occasional gusts to 30+
mph. Moisture builds along the coast and across the southern third
of the area tonight into Monday. This will support at least a low
chance for coastal showers overnight into Monday morning. An
increase in scattered showers and even a storm is possible Monday
afternoon along the Treasure Coast. NBM ProbThunder values generally
stay 30% or less, which is a bit generous considering the lack of
instability forecast.
Of greater certainty, beach conditions will become hazardous Sunday
night and continue that way through at least Monday. Rough surf and
an increased rip current risk is forecast, so entering the water
will be highly discouraged. Regarding temperatures, forecast highs
drop into the 70s to around 80 degrees to start the week. This is at
least 3-4 degrees below normal for mid April. Overnight lows are
expected to dip into the mid/upper 50s across the interior Monday
night into Tuesday morning.
Tuesday-Saturday...Guidance indicates a push of drier air arriving
Tuesday, with some 1-1.1" PW oscillating around a broad area of high
pressure mid to late week. Greater moisture recovery will have to
wait until Saturday or Sunday at least, which means a large part of
this extended forecast stays dry. Weak H5 height falls and shallow
moisture embedded in onshore flow could potentially support marine
showers approaching the coast beyond Wed/Thu, but measurable rain
will be hard to come by. Thus, the official forecast keeps
mentionable chances absent.
Breezy to gusty conditions are forecast again on Tuesday, especially
along the southern Space and Treasure Coasts. Wind speeds decrease a
bit Wednesday onward as the pressure gradient unwinds. Still, we
maintain some component of onshore flow through late week before
winds turn a bit more SSE on Saturday. The cooler high temps last us
through Wednesday before a warming trend resumes from Thursday
onward. At the beaches, rough surf and a high risk of rip currents
continues on Tuesday, especially from Cape Canaveral southward. A
moderate to high risk of rip currents is likely to persist through
at least Wednesday or Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Boating conditions remain favorable today, outside of isolated
showers and storms south of Sebastian Inlet. Seas generally 2-3 ft
with a light offshore wind this morning veering offshore as the east
coast breeze develops this afternoon. A conditional risk for
lightning storms capable of gusty winds exists along the Treasure
Coast this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, rain chances slowly
increase overnight into Monday along and behind a cold front.
This cold front will bring gusty northeast winds (20-25 kt) and
building seas late Sunday night into Monday, unfolding from north to
south. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued, starting just before
midnight Monday for the Volusia waters (0-60nm). The advisory
expands south to include the Brevard (Space Coast) waters (0-60nm)
and then the remaining Treasure Coast legs Monday morning. Hazardous
conditions are forecast to linger through at least Tuesday from Cape
Canaveral southward. Peak wave heights reach 10 ft in the Gulf
Stream Monday and Monday night before gradually decreasing north to
south on Tuesday.
Conditions improve mid to late week as high pressure builds
overhead. An isolated shower Wed/Thu onward cannot be ruled out, but
probabilities remain too low to include a mention of precipitation
at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026
VFR conditions are forecast to persist at all east central Florida
terminals. Light and variable winds early this morning will pick
up out of the west around 10 knots after 14Z. Along the coast, the
development of the east coast sea breeze will lead to winds at the
coastal terminals becoming more easterly after 18Z. Low chance for
VCSH at VRB southward after 18Z. Tonight, a cold front approaches
the Florida peninsula, causing winds to shift to out of the
north- northeast at 10 to 15 knots beginning at 00Z at LEE and
expanding southward as the front moves across the peninsula. Winds
are anticipated to increase in wind speeds into tomorrow.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026
One more day of mostly dry and warm conditions is expected before a
shift in the weather pattern arrives to start the new work week.
Highs will approach the upper 80s to 90 degrees Sunday afternoon
with light offshore winds turning onshore at the coast late in the
day. Humidity values are forecast to sink into the 30-35 percent
range, leading to some fire sensitive conditions. An isolated
lightning storm or two is possible along the Treasure Coast this
afternoon and evening.
A cold front arrives Sunday night, bringing gusty northeast winds to
the region into Monday. Gusts of 20-25 mph are possible Monday and
Tuesday with occasional gusts to 30 mph (especially along the
coast). Moisture briefly increases along and just behind the front,
supporting isolated to scattered showers along the coast, then
spreading inland mainly from Melbourne south through Monday
afternoon. A lightning storm cannot be ruled out, but lightning
chances are generally 25 percent or less. High pressure builds over
east central Florida through mid week, accompanied by lower
humidity values.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 88 65 77 60 / 10 10 10 0
MCO 89 67 79 59 / 10 10 10 0
MLB 85 69 78 65 / 20 20 20 0
VRB 86 68 79 65 / 30 30 40 10
LEE 88 64 80 56 / 10 10 0 0
SFB 89 66 79 57 / 10 10 10 0
ORL 89 67 80 59 / 10 10 10 0
FPR 87 68 80 64 / 30 30 50 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Tuesday
for AMZ550.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for
AMZ552.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
AMZ555-575.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday
for AMZ570.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
AMZ572.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Tollefsen