229
FXUS65 KVEF 170453
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
953 PM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Windy conditions are expected areawide as a cold front sweeps
from northwest to southeast across the Desert Southwest. This
will generate blowing dust and lead to high waves and dangerous
boating conditions on area lakes.

* Warming conditions are expected over the weekend as upper
ridging builds in.

* Increased southwesterly winds return during the first half of
next week as another slow moving storm moves in along the
California coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A powerful upper trough will move from the Pacific Northwest
across the Northern and Central Rockies through tonight. As this
feature shifts north and east of the region, it will bring a one-
two punch of gusty winds. Breezy southwesterly winds have already
taken shape across much of the region, and as a cold front surges
south, gusty northerly winds will ensue this evening into early
tomorrow morning. While winds head of the front will be quite
breezy, the strongest winds will occur in the wake of it. Ensemble
probabilities of 35-45 mph wind gusts range from 40-70% areawide,
with the greatest probabilities confined to the higher terrain
and the Colorado River Valley. In fact, given the favorable wind
direction, the Colorado River Valley will likely see some of the
stronger winds in this event. Areas around Bullhead City and
Laughlin have around a 40-60% chance of gusts in the 50-60 mph
range late tonight into early Friday. However, winds of this
magnitude should be rather localized and short lived. These
enhanced winds will lead to areas of blowing dust, which may
result in reduced visibilities and degraded air quality.
Additionally, area lakes will see increased wave action and
hazardous boating conditions, especially on Lakes Mead, Mohave and
Havasu. Winds will improve for most areas by Friday afternoon and
evening, however the Colorado River Valley will remain breezy
into the weekend with the favorable northerly direction.

A shot of cooler air will spill into the Desert Southwest in the
wake of the cold front, but this looks to be short lived. A broad
upper ridge will result in warming temperatures and lighter winds
over the weekend. This will allow daytime highs to rise back above
normal Sunday into Monday. This ridge will largely be reinforced
by a deepening cutoff low set to meander off the California coast.

Medium to long range ensembles are in generally good agreement
with the progression of the cutoff low, although it has trended
slower over the last few days. As this feature eventual works
into the Southwestern U.S. mid next week, it will induce a broad
but strong southwesterly flow. This will likely result in periods
of breezy to windy conditions during the coming week, though
confidence on timing and or intensity of any shortwave impulses
remains too low to pin down any specific timeframe. Eventually
this feature is likely to migrate into the Western U.S. bringing
cooler conditions and potential some precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...An
incoming front will cause a wind shift to the north northwest
around 06Z. Winds will intensify through the night, with gusts as
high as 40 knots possible. Northerly winds will gradually decrease
on Friday morning and afternoon, falling to less than 10 knots
after sunset on Friday evening. Mid and high clouds will clear out
behind the front and no precipitation is expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...An incoming front will
cause a wind shift from the southwest to the north overnight,
reaching the Las Vegas Valley around 06Z, the Colorado River Valley
between 08Z and 10Z, and KDAG between 09Z and 11Z. Widespread gusts
between 30 and 40 knots are expected behind the front. A few gusts
may approach 50 knots in the Colorado River Valley near KIFP in the
morning and early afternoon. Winds will remain gusty out of the
north through Friday, but gradually decrease in intensity in the
afternoon and evening. While winds should fall to less than 10 knots
at most locations by Friday evening, gusty northerly winds between
25 and 35 knots will persist in the Colorado River Valley through
Friday night. Mid and high clouds will clear out behind the front.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...Meltzer

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