.WHAT HAS CHANGED... Gale Warnings converted to Small Craft Advisories on the non ocean waters.
2) Minor coastal flooding is possible in vulnerable locations along the Long Island south shore during today`s daytime high tide cycle.
3) An extended stretch of dry weather looks to return this weekend and continue through much of next week.
Periods of light to moderate rain will continue to fall through the afternoon, before tapering everywhere by the evening. The risk for heavier downpours that could lead to any additional flood threat has ended. Additional QPF will be light, generally between a quarter and half inch. The rain may mix with or transition to wet snow across the hills well north and west of NYC. A light coating on colder surfaces is possible in these areas.
.KEY MESSAGE 2... The combination of a recent new moon (Nov. 9) and an area of low pressure moving off the Mid Atlantic coast should cause another round of minor coastal flooding along the Long Island south shore during today`s daytime high tide cycle. Isolated moderate coastal flooding is possible as well. Coastal flood advisories are in effect for the south shore of Nassau and Suffolk. N flow should prevent water levels from reaching threshold elsewhere.
Additionally, issued coastal flood statements for the NYC and NJ metro areas as well as southern Fairfield where new guidance was indicating isolated minor coastal flooding possible with up to a half foot of inundation.
Blend of bias corrected NYHOPS and P-ETSS 50th percentiles used for surge.
.KEY MESSAGE 3... An extended stretch of dry weather develops this weekend as a sprawling area of high pressure gradually builds to the west into early next week, then settles over the area mid to late next week.
Dry conditions persist through much of the week and below normal temps this weekend should moderate to near normal early next week, then to a few degrees above normal Wed-Thu as heights also rise aloft.
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Nearby low pressure to the south slowly shifts east and pulls away to the northeast into tonight.
MVFR to IFR conditions becoming IFR early this morning, lasting into the afternoon with improving flight categories late in the day and probably VFR between 02Z-05Z Saturday.
N winds this morning and much of the daytime, then NNW-NW tonight. Gusts becoming more frequent by around the start of the morning push, mostly 20-25kt. Winds diminish this afternoon to 5 to 10 kt by sunset.
Amendments likely due to uncertainty in flight categories.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z Saturday through TUESDAY...
Saturday: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20kt.
Sunday and Monday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20kt on Sunday.
Tuesday: VFR. Light winds.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
.MARINE... Gale Warning remains in effect for all ocean waters through 6 pm this evening. Gusts 35 to 40 kt, with seas 5 to 8 ft can be expected. Small Craft Advisory is now effect for all non ocean waters, with gusts 25 to 30 kt expected.
Winds back to the N-NE today as low pressure over the waters just south of Long Island slowly pulls east and away from the area. Speeds gradually lower through late day, and speeds/gusts should be under SCA criteria into tonight.
Another round of advisory conditions is possible later Saturday into Sunday on the near shore ocean waters. Otherwise, winds and seas look to remain below SCA criteria through at least early next week.