Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1240 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 700 PM Thursday...
*Higher snowfall amounts did trend slightly south today. However,
storm total snow accumulations of at least 2 inches areawide are
expected, with bands of of 6+ inches. Forecast placement of those
heavier bands are too difficult to forecast as of the moment.
*An Extreme Cold Watch is in effect for all of central North
Carolina from late Saturday night through Sunday morning. Wind
chills could drop as low as 4 below zero, creating dangerous
conditions for anyone outdoors.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 205 PM Thursday...
1) A coastal low developing off the coast Friday into Saturday will
bring a period of snow to central NC, with the higher totals
trending farther south but still have the potential impacting
accumulations.
2) A prolonged Arctic air mass will result in well below normal
temperatures across central NC from today through much of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 205 PM Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A coastal low developing off the coast Friday into
Saturday will bring a period of snow to central NC, with the higher
totals trending farther south but still have the potential impacting
accumulations.
Model trends have shifted the upper-level low diving south from
Canada on Friday slightly farther south of the region. This
southward shift favors a corresponding southward adjustment in
expected snowfall, with generally lower totals across central NC.
Despite this, rapid cyclogenesis remains likely just off the
Carolina coast, providing ample moisture to support snow showers
across the area. With strong lift between the upper low and the
developing surface low and very cold thermal profiles, snow-to-
liquid ratios will be high, resulting in a dry, fluffy snow. The
placement and timing of the deformation band remain uncertain,
though recent trends suggest it could set up anywhere from near the
US-1 corridor eastward into the Coastal Plain, possibly just outside
the CWA. Snow totals will continue to vary until greater confidence
is gained in when the upper low takes on a negative tilt and where
the surface low ultimately developsboth key factors in the overall
snowfall forecast, with cold air firmly in place.
Light snow may begin as early as Friday afternoon across the
northwest Piedmont, gradually expanding west to east through Friday
evening and night. Initial impacts may be limited, with more
significant snowfall developing later Friday overnight as the upper
low deepens and passes south of the area while the surface low
strengthens just off the coast. Snowfall is expected to become more
widespread and persistent on Saturday and Saturday night, with the
heaviest snowfall currently favored across eastern portions of
central NC Saturday afternoon into early evening. As the stacked
lows pull offshore late Saturday night, snow will taper from west to
east, ending first across the northwest Piedmont late overnight
Saturday and then clearing the Coastal Plain shortly after sunrise
Sunday. Strong cold advection will follow, with northwest wind gusts
increasing to 2535 mph early Sunday morning, highest in the east.
Snow totals are expected to range from around 2 inches area-wide to
localized amounts of 6 inches or more, with blowing snow possible
Saturday night into Sunday.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A prolonged Arctic air mass will result in well
below normal temperatures across central NC from today through much
of next week.
A strong Arctic high building down from south-central Canada into
the Northern Plains and stretching into the Eastern US will result
in continued very cold temperatures across central NC today and
Friday. Forecast highs today range from lower-30s near the VA border
to lower-40s in the far south, which is 12 to 18 degrees below
normal. Tomorrow will be a couple degrees warmer on average in most
locations, except still lower-30s in the far north. Lows tonight and
tomorrow night will be in the mid-teens to lower-20s.
Temperatures will turn even colder this weekend as the coastal low
that will bring a winter storm to our region reinforces the Arctic
air mass with strong northerly flow. Forecast highs on Saturday are
only in the lower-to-mid-20s in most locations (a whopping ~30
degrees below normal), with mid-20s to lower-30s on Sunday. Our
current forecast has these highs getting close to or breaking the
record daily low maximum temperatures on both dates at all three
climate sites. See the climate section below for more details. Winds
gusting up to 25-35 mph from Saturday through Sunday will keep wind
chills from getting above the teens, potentially not getting out of
the single digits across the north on Saturday. On Saturday night,
lows in the lower-to-mid-teens will result in wind chills dropping
as low as zero to 5 below zero. Thus an Extreme Cold Watch has been
issued from late Saturday night through Sunday morning. Additional
Cold Weather headlines may be needed on Sunday night when winds will
be lighter but air temperatures should get lower (upper-single
digits to lower-teens).
Very cold temperatures will continue behind the storm from Monday
through Thursday, which will slow the melting process of whatever
snow ends up accumulating this weekend, prolonging the travel
impacts. One factor that will at least help with some snowmelt is
the ample sunshine expected early next week. Forecast highs Monday
are in the mid-to-upper-30s with lows in the mid-to-upper-teens. A
slight modification is expected through midweek as the Arctic high
weakens and moves to our south, but temperatures are still only
expected to reach upper-30s to lower-40s on Tuesday and lower-to-mid-
40s on Wednesday and Thursday. Lows by Wednesday night will "only"
drop into the 20s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1240 AM Friday...
There is reasonably high confidence in VFR conditions to start the
TAF period. Clouds in the mid to high levels will gradually lower
this afternoon and evening with the approach of the well advertised
winter storm. As low pressure develops to our south and the pressure
gradient tightens, we should see winds shift from ENE to NE tonight,
with some gusts toward the end of the period to around 18-20 kt.
Guidance depicts light snow developing late in the TAF period,
mainly between 00z-06z, perhaps earliest at GSO and INT. Confidence
was high enough to include IFR light snow at these terminals, but
overall confidence was not high enough at the other terminals given
disagreement in the predicted snow shield. The better chance of sub-
VFR visibilities in snow at all terminals will be after 06z.
Outlook: Widespread light to at times moderate snow is expected by
early Saturday morning and continuing until tapering off early
Sunday. LIFR-MVFR restrictions are expected at all terminals, along
with NNE gusts up to 30 kt. Winds subside Sun aftn/eve, along with a
return to VFR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record Low Temperatures:
January 30: KGSO: 4/1966, KRDU: 7/2014, KFAY: 8/2014
January 31: KGSO: 3/1966, KRDU: 3/1966, KFAY: 9/1934
February 1: KGSO: -4/1936, KRDU: 8/1981, KFAY: 1/1936
February 2: KGSO: 6/1971, KRDU: 5/1971, KFAY: 15/1971
February 3: KGSO: 7/1917, KRDU: 7/1980, KFAY: 10/1917
February 4: KGSO: 7/1996, KRDU: 7/1981, KFAY: 15/1980
Record Low Maximum Temperatures:
January 30: KGSO: 13/1966, KRDU: 19/1966, KFAY: 29/1966
January 31: KGSO: 22/1936, KRDU: 27/1948, KFAY: 22/1966
February 1: KGSO: 27/1971, KRDU: 28/1900, KFAY: 32/1981
February 2: KGSO: 30/1951, KRDU: 31/1994, KFAY: 31/1948
February 3: KGSO: 23/1996, KRDU: 24/1996, KFAY: 30/1961
February 4: KGSO: 18/1996, KRDU: 19/1996, KFAY: 24/1996
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon
for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
Extreme Cold Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning
for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
