Severe Center
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #0165 - Heavy Rainfall
Map Options
Map Legend
Area of Concern - Severe T-Storm
Area of Concern - Winter
Area of Concern - Heavy Rainfall
Warnings Polygons Legend
WWA Legend
Watches Legend
Outline PDS Tornado Watch
Outline PDS T-Storm Watch
Outline Tornado Watch
Outline T-Storm Watch
Active Storms
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0165
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
512 AM EDT Sat May 09 2026
Areas affected...central/southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and far western Florida Panhandle
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 090912Z - 091512Z
Summary...Areas of convection (with scattered
mergers/backbuilding) will pose a flash flood risk through 15Z/10a
Central this morning.
Discussion...Scattered convection has organized into a mix of
clusters and linear segments along a couple axes -- one extending
from near Natchitoches, LA to Jackson, MS to west-central AL and
another, more scattered band from near Natchez, MS to near
Slidell, LA. These cells were moving eastward at an appreciable
clip (30-35 kt), but were being sustained by appreciable mid-level
instability and 1.75 inch PW values. The loosely organized nature
of the cells was supporting occasional training and mergers, with
spots of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates focused primarily in northern
Louisiana over the past half hour to hour. FFGs in this region
were high (around 3-4 inch/hr), suggestive of only an isolated
flash flood risk (at best) in the short term.
With time, cells will migrate/evolve east-southeastward toward
portions of southern Mississippi that have received 3-6 inches of
rainfall over the past 72 hours. Soil moistures are wetter here,
and FFGs are somewhat lower (near 2 inches/hr in spots). Portions
of southern Louisiana have lower FFGs from prior rain (around 1
inch/hr) as well. The slow northward drift of a remnant outflow
from earlier convection (and attendant surface-based instabilty)
will probably interact with ongoing convection favorably for more
mergers and localized training as cells migrate
east-southeastward, with rain rates over 2 inch/hr expected in a
few spots (supported by abundant PW values). Areas of flash
flooding are possible, and the overall risk will increase in the
aforementioned areas (esp. southern LA/MS) between 10Z-15Z this
morning.
Cook
ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...TAE...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 32938887 32498711 32278640 31948583 31048582
30548756 30058985 30019105 30469219 30889319
32419374 32689303 32649166 32769048
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
512 AM EDT Sat May 09 2026
Areas affected...central/southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and far western Florida Panhandle
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 090912Z - 091512Z
Summary...Areas of convection (with scattered
mergers/backbuilding) will pose a flash flood risk through 15Z/10a
Central this morning.
Discussion...Scattered convection has organized into a mix of
clusters and linear segments along a couple axes -- one extending
from near Natchitoches, LA to Jackson, MS to west-central AL and
another, more scattered band from near Natchez, MS to near
Slidell, LA. These cells were moving eastward at an appreciable
clip (30-35 kt), but were being sustained by appreciable mid-level
instability and 1.75 inch PW values. The loosely organized nature
of the cells was supporting occasional training and mergers, with
spots of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates focused primarily in northern
Louisiana over the past half hour to hour. FFGs in this region
were high (around 3-4 inch/hr), suggestive of only an isolated
flash flood risk (at best) in the short term.
With time, cells will migrate/evolve east-southeastward toward
portions of southern Mississippi that have received 3-6 inches of
rainfall over the past 72 hours. Soil moistures are wetter here,
and FFGs are somewhat lower (near 2 inches/hr in spots). Portions
of southern Louisiana have lower FFGs from prior rain (around 1
inch/hr) as well. The slow northward drift of a remnant outflow
from earlier convection (and attendant surface-based instabilty)
will probably interact with ongoing convection favorably for more
mergers and localized training as cells migrate
east-southeastward, with rain rates over 2 inch/hr expected in a
few spots (supported by abundant PW values). Areas of flash
flooding are possible, and the overall risk will increase in the
aforementioned areas (esp. southern LA/MS) between 10Z-15Z this
morning.
Cook
ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...TAE...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 32938887 32498711 32278640 31948583 31048582
30548756 30058985 30019105 30469219 30889319
32419374 32689303 32649166 32769048