Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1065
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...North-Central to Northeast KS...Far Southeast
NE...Northern MO...Western IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160635Z - 161235Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to gradually
increase in coverage later tonight and through early Sunday
morning. Some localized cell-training may occur and this will
favor a threat for at least some isolated areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E Proxy Visible satellite data along
with radar shows a forward-propagating MCS advancing toward
north-central KS in association with a shortwave trough ejecting
out across the central Plains. This energy will be interacting
with a frontal zone draped across eastern KS through northern MO
over the next several hours which will set the stage for an
increase in the coverage of convection.

MUCAPE values in vicinity of the front are 2000 to 3000 J/kg with
PWs also quite high in the 2.0 to 2.25 inch range. This very moist
and unstable environment will be favoring high rainfall rates
capable of locally reaching 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour. The increase
in convective coverage ahead of the current MCS will be tied into
broader warm air advection and forcing extending downstream across
especially northeast KS and northern MO as a modest uptick in
low-level southwest flow overruns the aforementioned front.
Modestly divergent flow aloft ahead of the shortwave energy will
also facilitate an increase in thunderstorm activity near and just
poleward of the front where the better instability gradient will
be aligned aloft.

The latest hires model guidance suggests some localized
cell-training concerns which may allow for some narrow swaths of 3
to 4+ inch rainfall totals going through early Sunday morning.
This may yield some isolated, and mainly urban flash flooding
concerns. If the convection were to advance into western IL, which
is suggested by some guidance, the threat for flash flooding may
increase a bit given wetter antecedent conditions across this
region.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...GID...ICT...ILX...LSX...OAX...
SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40879049 40418949 39578936 39059015 38729229
38549482 38559687 38719841 39459884 39899840
40289685 40469552 40609401 40729199