Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1068
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1049 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...Southern Ohio and West Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 161448Z - 162030Z

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms over the central Ohio/Indiana
border should expand and intensify over southern Ohio through West
Virginia through this afternoon. Cell-training should continue
with coverage of flash flooding increasing to scattered for this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm cluster east of Muncie, IN is in a
warm sector south of a warm front over northern OH. SBCAPE is
increasing to 3000 J/kg over southern OH where sunshine is fairly
abundant per visible imagery. Moisture is pooled as well with PW
around 2.1". Hourly rainfall 1" is estimated from KILN for this
cluster with deep layer westerly flow allowing repeating activity.
Thunderstorm coverage will increase through midday with ample
instability along with a trough axis extending northeast from
Indiana/Kentucky. Southern Ohio and WV are vulnerable to further
flash flooding from a prolonged series of active weather. 1hr FFG
is generally around 1".

Like with earlier activity over IL, recent HRRR and RRFS runs have
little to no rainfall downstream of the current cluster. However,
the environment is encouraging for renewed growth and this area is
rather vulnerable. Expect flash flooding instances to increase to
scattered coverage through the afternoon hours with locally
considerable impacts likely. Further shortwave impulse tracking
north of the Deep South ridge should promote further activity
tonight, so subsequent discussions are likely.

Jackson

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40548379 40438252 40108154 39648069 39217996
38807956 38417977 37798007 37288030 37328077
37448119 37998247 38388392 39198513 39888524
40318491