Severe Center
Mesoscale Discussion WPC #1071 for Heavy Rainfall
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Area of Concern - Severe T-Storm
Area of Concern - Winter
Area of Concern - Heavy Rainfall
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1071
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Areas affected...portions of Colorado and New Mexico
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 161853Z - 170053Z
Summary...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to expand in
coverage across Colorado and New Mexico today, with at least a few
instances of flash flooding expected through 00Z/6p mountain.
Discussion...Abundant sunshine and mid-level moisture has
contributed to development of a few thunderstorms along higher
terrain from central Colorado southward through south-central New
Mexico. Storms are initially focused on terrain-favored
peaks/ridgelines while also moving slowly due to weak/marginal
steering flow aloft (less than 10 knots). Low-level easterly flow
was also encouraging updrafts via upslope/orographic forcing.
PWATs vary widely across the discussion area and are generally
between 0.75-1 inch in the immediate vicinity of the storms and
points to the west, while increasing to around 1.25 inch with
eastward extent across the High Plains. As storms continue to
expand in coverage over the next few hours, slow movement will
enable spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates to develop, which should
activate excessive runoff in/near burn scar areas on at least an
isolated basis.
Over time, storms will move slowly and erratically while
eventually forming clusters/linear segments especially from
east-central CO into central/northeast NM. These clusters will
continue to pose a flash flood risk through the evening hours as
they ingest higher PW air from the east while obtaining loose
organization, prolonging heavy rainfall locally. Areas of 2 inch
rainfall totals are expected, with flash flood potential remaining
enhanced near local sensitive spots/burn scars. This risk will
exist through at least 00Z/6p mountain time this evening.
Cook
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...EPZ...GJT...GLD...MAF...PUB...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 40770552 40580455 39900295 38820249 37840247
36930287 35790336 33930428 32100504 32150705
32520838 33820869 35540813 36700707 37780687
39630666 40440645
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Areas affected...portions of Colorado and New Mexico
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 161853Z - 170053Z
Summary...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to expand in
coverage across Colorado and New Mexico today, with at least a few
instances of flash flooding expected through 00Z/6p mountain.
Discussion...Abundant sunshine and mid-level moisture has
contributed to development of a few thunderstorms along higher
terrain from central Colorado southward through south-central New
Mexico. Storms are initially focused on terrain-favored
peaks/ridgelines while also moving slowly due to weak/marginal
steering flow aloft (less than 10 knots). Low-level easterly flow
was also encouraging updrafts via upslope/orographic forcing.
PWATs vary widely across the discussion area and are generally
between 0.75-1 inch in the immediate vicinity of the storms and
points to the west, while increasing to around 1.25 inch with
eastward extent across the High Plains. As storms continue to
expand in coverage over the next few hours, slow movement will
enable spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates to develop, which should
activate excessive runoff in/near burn scar areas on at least an
isolated basis.
Over time, storms will move slowly and erratically while
eventually forming clusters/linear segments especially from
east-central CO into central/northeast NM. These clusters will
continue to pose a flash flood risk through the evening hours as
they ingest higher PW air from the east while obtaining loose
organization, prolonging heavy rainfall locally. Areas of 2 inch
rainfall totals are expected, with flash flood potential remaining
enhanced near local sensitive spots/burn scars. This risk will
exist through at least 00Z/6p mountain time this evening.
Cook
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...EPZ...GJT...GLD...MAF...PUB...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 40770552 40580455 39900295 38820249 37840247
36930287 35790336 33930428 32100504 32150705
32520838 33820869 35540813 36700707 37780687
39630666 40440645