Severe Center
Mesoscale Discussion SPC #2383 for Severe Potential
Map Options
LAT:
38
LON:
-97.03
Map Legend
Mesoscale Legend
Area of Concern - Severe T-Storm
Area of Concern - Winter
Area of Concern - Heavy Rainfall
Warnings Polygons Legend
WWA Legend
Watches Legend
Outline PDS Tornado Watch
Outline PDS T-Storm Watch
Outline Tornado Watch
Outline T-Storm Watch
Active Storms
Mesoscale Discussion 2383
Areas Affected
portions of southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico
Concerning
Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid
192000Z - 192200Z
Probability Of Watch Issuance
20 percent
Summary
Thunderstorm cover is expected to increase later this afternoon with an isolated risk for hail or severe gusts. A WW is unlikely.
Discussion
As of 2000 UTC, visible imagery showed cumulus towers and initial thunderstorms deepening near the international border and across the higher terrain of southeastern AZ. Surface temperatures have steadily warmed this afternoon ahead of a weak upper trough. Surface dewpoints in the upper 50s with mid-level temperatures near -12 to -14 C are supporting around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Continue heating with steepening of lapse rate profiles should remove inhibition with additional thunderstorms expected to develop in and near the higher terrain this afternoon. While buoyancy will likely remain modest, effective shear of 30-40 kt could support some storm organization. Isolated, marginally severe hail and gusty outflow winds may occur with the stronger cells that develop and spread eastward from AZ into NM.
Coverage should gradually increase this afternoon and into the evening hours as the upper trough moves overhead. Hi-res guidance shows this well, but with only sporadic more intense storms given the marginal buoyancy. This should keep the severe risk fairly isolated and a WW is unlikely.
Lyons/Guyer
Most Probable Peak Wind Gust
UP TO 60 MPH
Most Probable Peak Hail Size
UP TO 1.25 IN